Atlantic Herring Fishery Specifications 2013-2015: Draft Discussion Document Lori Steele, NEFMC Staff, Herring PDT Chair Herring AP/OS Meeting, November 6-7, 2012
2013-2015 Specs Development YTD • SAW/SARC 54 (June 2012) - Benchmark • Herring PDT August 14, 2012 • Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) September 12/13, 2012 • Herring Committee/ASMFC Herring Section September 20, 2012 • NEFMC September 25-27, 2012 – Select Preferred Alternative for ABC and specify management uncertainty; add 2 alternatives for accountability measures (AMs)
2010-2012 Herring Specifications SPECIFICATION 2010-2012 ALLOCATION (MT) 145,000 – 2010 Overfishing Limit (OFL) 134,000 – 2011 127,000 - 2012 Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) 106,000 Optimum Yield (OY)/Annual Catch Limit (ACL) 91,200 Domestic Annual Harvesting (DAH) 91,200 Domestic Annual Processing (DAP) 87,200 0 U.S. At-Sea Processing (USAP) Border Transfer (BT) 4,000 Sub-ACL Area 1A* 26,546 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 Sub-ACL 2 22,146 Sub-ACL 3 38,146 Research Set-Aside (RSA) None Fixed Gear Set-Aside (1A) 295
SAW/SARC 54 (June 2012) TRAC 2009 SAW/SARC 54 F MSY 0.27 0.27 670,000 mt 157,000 mt B MSY (1/2 SSB MSY = 335,300 mt) (1/2 SSB MSY = 78,500 mt) MSY 178,000 mt 53,000 mt • 2011 SSB = 517,930 mt (not overfished; “rebuilt”) • 2011 F = 0.14 (not overfishing)
SSC Recommendations September 12-13, 2012 ABC Control Rule – specified approach to setting ABC for stock as a function of scientific uncertainty (recommended by SSC) • Reviewed two alternatives for specifying ABC and supports both approaches (constant catch, 75% F MSY ) for 2013-2015 • Both approaches are nearly equivalent from a biological perspective (projected to result in similar SSB values in 2015)
NEFMC Meeting September 25-27, 2012 • Recommended “constant catch” ABC as Preferred Alternative for 2013-2015 (Alternative 2) • Specified management uncertainty based on recent average Canadian (NB weir) catch (6,200 mt) • Adopted two alternatives for Accountability Measures (AMs) to be further considered/analyzed
ABC/ABC Control Rule 1. Alternative 1 – No Action 2. Alternative 2 (“constant catch” Preferred Alternative) 3. Alternative 3 (75% F MSY ) Preferred Alternative 2013 2014 2015 OFL (mt) 169,000 136,000 114,000 ABC (mt) 114,000 114,000 114,000 Mgmt. Unc. (mt) 6,200 6,200 6,200 ACL/OY (mt) 107,800 107,800 107,800
Additional ABC Alternatives? • October 8, 2012 correspondence submitted by EarthJustice • Requests Council to consider a reasonable range of alternative ABC control rules (as per Amendment 4 lawsuit/court order) • Includes two ABC/control rule alternatives based on recent scientific studies for forage fish for Council consideration • Requests consideration of additional AM alternatives
Proposed ABC Alternative (EJ) Lenfest Control Rule (“Little Fish, Big Impact”) “Hockey Stick” Harvest Control Rule • Conservative target F (suggested 50% F MSY ) when stock biomass is above a target level and sets ABC as a function of biomass • Decreases catch as biomass decreases (hockey stick control rule) to a cutoff biomass level, at which there would be no fishing
Proposed ABC Alternative (EJ) Pacific Coast Control Rule Harvest control strategy for forage fish used by Pacific Fishery Management Council • Target F remains the same regardless of biomass, until B declines to a cutoff level, at which point fishing is ceased • Target F set conservatively based on uncertainty an includes additional buffer to account for forage/ecosystem considerations (ex., 50% F MSY )
Herring PDT Recommendations October 18, 2012 • PDT supports consideration of the two alternatives proposed in the EJ letter, but views them as different long-term strategies, both requiring further evaluation • Development of appropriate reference points should be considered through an FMP amendment • Setting ABC based on 50% F MSY (0.14) for 2013-2015 would produce similar short-term results if the Council supports a more conservative approach to account for forage/ecosystem considerations • PDT recommends that the Council seek further guidance from the SSC regarding the alternatives proposed in the EJ letter
Management Uncertainty ABC– Management Uncertainty = ACL (Stock-wide ACL = U.S. OY) Preferred Alternative 2013 2014 2015 OFL (mt) 169,000 136,000 114,000 ABC (mt) 114,000 114,000 114,000 Mgmt. Unc. (mt) 6,200 6,200 6,200 ACL/OY (mt) 107,800 107,800 107,800 12
Management Area Sub-ACLs Atlantic herring = multiple stock components (inshore and offshore) that mix seasonally *Inshore stock component also caught in Canadian (NB weir) fishery* One annual catch limit (ACL) with sub-ACLs assigned to four management areas Area 1 = Gulf of Maine, divided into inshore (Area 1A) and offshore (Area 1B); Area 2 = southern New England/Mid-Atlantic; Area 3 = offshore (Georges Bank)
Atlantic Herring Management Areas
Management Area Sub-ACLs • Stock complex is not overfished/not overfishing • Separate assessments/reference points for stock components (inshore/offshore) not available When allocating catch to the four management areas, what is the primary objective? 1. Maximize fishing opportunities for the industry, within the constraints of the total U.S. OY 2. Minimize “risk” of overfishing one of the stock components (inshore)
Herring FMP Objectives • Harvest resource consistent with MSA • Prevent overfishing of discrete spawning components • Avoid patterns of F that adversely affect age structure of the stock • Provide for long-term, efficient, and full utilization of the OY while minimizing waste • Minimize race to fish in all areas • Provide controlled opportunities for fishermen and vessels in other NE and MA fisheries • Promote research/coordinate management
Sub-ACL Option 1 No Action Alternative (Status Quo) Maintains 2012 Specifications 2010-2012 2013-2015 OFL (mt) 145,000/134,000/127,000 127,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 106,000 ACL (mt) 91,200 91,200 Sub-ACL Area 1A 26,546 26,546 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 4,362 Sub-ACL Area 2 22,146 22,146 Sub-ACL Area 3 38,146 38,146 No Research Set-Asides (RSAs) 91,200 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside – 295 mt
Sub-ACL Option 2 Maintains same proportional distribution of sub- ACLs in all areas 2010-2012 2013-2015 145,000 169,000 OFL (mt) 134,000 136,000 127,000 114,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 114,000 1% 2% 3% ACL (mt) 91,200 107,800 RSA RSA RSA Sub-ACL Area 1A 26,546 (29%) 31,200 312 624 936 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 (5%) 5,400 54 108 162 Sub-ACL Area 2 22,146 (24%) 25,900 259 518 777 Sub-ACL Area 3 38,146 (42%) 45,300 453 906 1,359 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside TBD 107,800 N/A N/A N/A
Sub-ACL Options 3 and 4 2010-2012 2013-2015 OFL (mt) 145,000/134,000/127,000 169,000/136,000/114,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 114,000 1% 2% 3% ACL (mt) 91,200 107,800 RSA RSA RSA Sub-ACL Area 1A 26,546 32,100 312 624 936 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 9,900 99 198 297 Sub-ACL Area 2 22,146 27,800 278 556 834 Sub-ACL Area 3 38,146 38,000 380 760 1,140 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside – TBD 107,800 N/A N/A N/A • Two options for allocating additional yield to areas of particular interest to industry (1A, 2, and 1B) 2010-2012 2013-2015 OFL (mt) 145,000/134,000/127,000 169,000/136,000/114,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 114,000 1% 2% 3% ACL (mt) 91,200 107,800 RSA RSA RSA Sub-ACL Area 1A 26,546 32,000 320 640 960 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 5,800 58 116 174 Sub-ACL Area 2 22,146 32,000 320 640 960 Sub-ACL Area 3 38,146 38,000 380 760 1,140 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside – TBD 107,800 N/A N/A N/A
Sub-ACL Options 5 and 6 2010-2012 2013-2015 OFL (mt) 145,000/134,000/127,000 169,000/136,000/114,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 114,000 1% 2% 3% ACL (mt) 91,200 107,800 RSA RSA RSA Sub-ACL Area 1A 26,546 33,200 332 664 996 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 600 6 12 18 Sub-ACL Area 2 22,146 29,000 290 580 870 Sub-ACL Area 3 38,146 45,000 450 900 1,350 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside – TBD 107,800 N/A N/A N/A • Two options that would eliminate directed herring fishery in Area 1B 2010-2012 2013-2015 OFL (mt) 145,000/134,000/127,000 169,000/136,000/114,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 114,000 1% 2% 3% ACL (mt) 91,200 107,800 RSA RSA RSA Sub-ACL Area 1A 26,546 36,600 366 732 1,098 Sub-ACL Area 1B 4,362 600 6 12 18 Sub-ACL Area 2 22,146 32,600 326 652 978 Sub-ACL Area 3 38,146 38,000 380 760 1,140 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside – TBD 107,800 N/A N/A N/A
Sub-ACL Option 7 • Based on Herring Committee recommendation to develop option that shifts yield from Area 3 to Area 2 (~8,000 mt of Area 3 sub-ACL is shifted to Area 2) • Majority of remaining yield allocated to Area 1A 2010-2012 2013-2015 OFL (mt) 145,000/134,000/127,000 169,000/136,000/114,000 ABC (mt) 106,000 114,000 1% 2% 3% ACL (mt) 91,200 107,800 RSA RSA RSA Area 1A 26,546 40,000 400 800 1,200 Area 1B 4,362 5,800 58 116 174 Area 2 22,146 32,000 320 640 960 Area 3 38,146 30,000 300 600 900 Area 1A Fixed Gear Set-Aside TBD 107,800 N/A N/A N/A 21
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