ASIAN TRANSFORMATIONS Some Discussant’s Comments Will Martin International Food Policy Research Institute Helsinki | 14 September 2018
Myrdal Perspectives ▪ Need for multidisciplinarity ▪ Historical legacies o ethnic and religious diversity ▪ Democracy, governance and economic performance
Some Other Key Myrdal Perspectives ▪ Economic development requires a slowdown in population growth ▪ Traditional views and limited education a brake on growth ▪ Low agricultural productivity is central to low incomes and poverty ▪ Slow economic growth
Fertility Rate: Children per Woman 1965 2016 Bangladesh 6.9 2.1 Cambodia 6.9 2.6 China 6.4 1.6 High income 2.9 1.7 India 5.8 2.3 Indonesia 5.6 2.4 Lao PDR 6.0 2.7 Malaysia 5.9 2.0 Myanmar 6.1 2.2 Pakistan 6.6 3.5 Philippines 6.8 2.9 Singapore 4.7 1.2 Sub Saharan Africa 6.7 4.8 Thailand 6.1 1.5
Completion rates, lower secondary school, rural areas, % 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Bangladesh China India Indonesia Kenya Nigeria Pakistan Early 90s 2010- Source: UNESCO
GROWTH IN AGRIC OUTPUT PER CAPITA 2.5 Developing 2 1.5 1 0.5 High 0 -0.5 -1 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: FAO data on output at world prices, smoothed using LOESS Regression
ECONOMIC DIVERGENCE “BIG TIME” 182 0 – 1990 18 High Developing Per capita income '000 1990 PPP 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1820 1870 1913 1960 1990 Average growth: High inc.: 1.6% pa Developing: 0.9% pa.
MUCH HIGHER GROWTH IN POOR COUNTRIES 1993 – 2017 6 Developing 5 GDP Growth Rate, PPP 4 3 2 High 1 0 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Developed: Aus, Can, Jpn, NZ, US, W. Europe
PARTICULARLY RAPID GROWTH IN ASIA 9 Region High 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 China India Other East Asia Other S Asia E C Asia ME N Africa L America SS Africa Source: WDI, 1991 – 2016
Asian Transformations ▪ Asia has been transformed since Myrdal wrote ▪ Some areas of great concern to Myrdal have turned out well ▪ Demography and population ▪ Education and economic dynamism ▪ Agricultural productivity ▪ New data shed light where Myrdal could not see ▪ Long term divergence followed by rapid convergence
Recommend
More recommend
