Asian Modeling Exercise Kate Calvin September 16, 2009 Tsukuba, Japan
Acknowledgements Our thanks to the following organizations for their funding: This is an open process and we welcome funding from other interested parties.
Goals of the Exercise Objective: to better articulate the role of Asia in addressing climate change . Means: To bring together global modelers that commonly participate in efforts to explore international policy architectures with regional modelers and experts with Asia-specific knowledge, understanding, data, and analysis A coordinated modeling exercise that attempts to link these communities to provide more effective modeling and analysis of Asia within a global context.
Motivation: Asia’s Role GDP POPULATION 100% 100% China India 90% China India 90% Japan Korea Japan Korea 80% Southeast Asia ROW 80% Southeast Asia ROW 70% % of Global Total % of Global Total 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 PRIMARY ENERGY CO 2 EMISSIONS 100% 100% China India 90% China India 90% Japan Korea Japan Korea 80% Southeast Asia ROW 80% Southeast Asia ROW 70% % of Global Total 70% % of Global Total 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference)
Motivation: China & India’s Role in 2050 GDP POPULATION 100% 100% 80% 80% % of Global Total % of Global Total ROW 60% ROW 60% India India 40% 40% China China 20% 20% 0% 0% MiniCAM POLES ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE MERGE MESSAGE SGM WITCH MiniCAM FUND GTEM IMAGE MERGE MESSAGE POLES SGM WITCH ETSAP-TIAM PRIMARY ENERGY CO 2 EMISSIONS 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% % of Global Total 80% 70% % of Global Total 70% ROW 60% ROW 60% 50% India 50% India 40% China 40% 30% China 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% MESSAGE MiniCAM POLES ETSAP-TIAM FUND GTEM IMAGE MERGE SGM WITCH FUND MERGE MESSAGE MiniCAM POLES SGM ETSAP-TIAM GTEM IMAGE WITCH EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (Reference)
Approach Stanford EMF-like exercise
Schedule First Meeting: When: September 17-18, 2009 Where: Tsukuba, Japan Objective: Review Existing Asian Scenarios Work Plan a New Scenario Exercise 2 to 3 subsequent meetings, every 6 months 2 nd Meeting: March 2010 3 rd Meeting: September 2010 Final Product: Special Issue of a Journal (2011)
1 st Meeting’s Agenda Day 1: 16 Presentations, 20 AGENDA Day 1 : Septem ber 1 7 , 2 0 0 9 8:30 to 8:40 Welcome – Mikiko Kainuma Minutes Each 8:40 to 8:45 Introduction – Jae Edmonds 8:45 to 9:20 Overview – Leon Clarke OVERVI EW OF MODELI NG CAPABI LI TY—THE GLOBAL MODELS We need to be very strict Chair: Leon Clarke 9:20 to 9:40 Kate Calvin: PNNL 9:40 to 10:00 Geoff Blanford: EPRI about time management 10:00 to 10:20 Keywan Riahi: IIASA 10:20 to 10:40 COFFEE BREAK Pre-defined presentation OVERVI EW OF MODELI NG CAPABI LI TY—THE REGI ONAL MODELS Chair: Jae Edmonds 10:40 to 11:00 Ram Shrestha: Asian Institute of Technology template 11:00 to 11:20 Chin Siong Ho: U. Technology Malaysia 11:20 to 11:40 Jiang Kejun: China Energy Research Institute 11:40 to NOON Yong Gun Kim: Korea Environment Institute 4 slides describing the LUNCH NOON to 13:00 Jiang Kejun: What Do Asian Policy Makers Want To Know: China model OVERVI EW OF MODELI NG CAPABI LI TY—THE GLOBAL MODELS Chair: Geoff Blanford 1 slide on Asian baselines 13:00 to 13:20 Valentina Bosetti: FEEM 13:20 to 13:40 Elmar Kriegler: PIK 13:40 to 14:00 Peter Russ: EU 14:00 to 14:20 Junichi Fujino: NIES 3 slides on Asian scenarios 14:20 to 14:40 Tom Kram: PBL 14:40 to 15:00 Dominique van der Mensbrugghe: WB 15:00 to 15:20 Atsushi Kurosawa: JIEA COFFEE BREAK 15:20 to 15:40 OVERVI EW OF MODELI NG CAPABI LI TY—THE REGI ONAL MODELS Day 2: Chair: Stephanie Walldoff 15:40 to 16:00 Suduk Kim: AJOU University 16:00 to 16:20 Vaibhav Chaturvedi or P.R. Shukla: IIAM 16:20 to 16:40 Zhang Xiliang: Tsinghua University Focus on the plan going 16:40 to 17:00 Shuichi Ashina: NIES forward OPTI ONS FOR THE ASI AN MODELI NG EXERCI SE Chair: Leon Clarke 17:00 to 17:30 OPEN DISCUSSION
Participants 46 People are Attending the First Meeting Representing China, Europe, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, USA 10 Global Modeling Teams: EPRI, EU, FEEM, IIASA, JGCRI, JIEA, NIES, PBL, PIK, World Bank 6 Regional Modeling Teams: Asian Institute of Technology, China Energy Research Institute, Tsinghua University, Korea Environment Institute, AJOU University, IIAM
Possible Topics Growth and Development Paths: The effect of different population and economic growth assumptions in Asian regions International Climate Targets: The implications of varying international climate policies on Asian regions Non-Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: The impact of various policy based commitments (e.g., RPS, energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) on Asian regions Non-Climate Policies: The impact of various non-climate policies (e.g., sulfur standards, BC policies) on Asian regions Technology: The effect of various technology assumptions (different technology availability, different costs) on mitigation in Asian regions Land-use Policies: The impact of land-use policies (e.g., offsets, REDD) on agriculture, land- use, and land-use change emissions in Asian regions. Imperfect Cooperation on Climate Policy: The degree of emissions leakage in Asian regions as a result of differentiated climate policies around the world. Climate Policy on Energy Security and International Trade: The implications of climate policy on energy security and international trade within Asia, and between Asia and the rest of the world.
EXTRA SLIDES
Possible Topics Growth and Development Paths: The effect of different population and economic growth assumptions in Asian regions CHINA’S GDP CHINA’S CO 2 EMISSIONS 40 35 MERGE Optimistic MERGE Optimistic 35 30 MERGE Pessimistic MERGE Pessimistic 30 25 Trillion 2005 U.S. $ 25 GtCO 2 /yr 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios (Reference)
Possible Topics International Climate Targets: The implications of varying international climate policies on Asian regions CHINA’S GDP INDIA’S GDP 35 20 REFERENCE REFERENCE 18 4.5 W/m2 N.T.E. 4.5 W/m2 N.T.E. 30 3.7 W/m2 N.T.E. 3.7 W/m2 N.T.E. 16 2.6 W/m2 O.S. 2.6 W/m2 O.S. 25 14 Trillion 2005 U.S. $ Trillion 2005 U.S. $ 12 20 10 15 8 6 10 4 5 2 0 0 E E M E E M M H M M M H G G G G G C E A E G C A R A R T T A T C S C S T E S E S G G I I M S i W M S i W n n E E i i M M M M EMF 22 International Transition Scenarios
Possible Topics Non-Cap-and-Trade Climate Policies: The impact of various policy based commitments (e.g., RPS, energy efficiency standards, CAFE standards) on Asian regions 2035 Emissions by Sector POLICY REGIONS 60 Economy-Wide CO2 Annex I 50 Constraint Buildings 40 GtCO 2 /yr Industry 30 Transport Power Sector Carbon Africa, China, India, Latin America, 20 Electricity Intensity Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia 10 0 CAFE Standard China, India, Latin America, Korea, Reference Efficient 450 Alternate 450 Middle East, Southeast Asia 2035 Emissions by Region Biofuels Target China, India, Latin America, Korea, 60 Southeast Asia 50 Industry Carbon China, Korea ROW Constraint 40 Asia GtCO 2 /yr 30 India Policy-Based Crediting Africa, China, India, Latin America, China 20 Korea, Middle East, Southeast Asia Annex I 10 0 Reference Efficient 450 Alternate 450 Source: PNNL/Pew Center Collaboration
Possible Topics Non-Climate Policies: The impact of various non-climate policies (e.g., sulfur standards, BC policies) on Asian regions GLOBAL MEAN GLOBAL SO 2 EMISSIONS TEMPERATURE RISE 300 4.0 Without Controls Without Controls 3.5 250 With Controls With Controls 3.0 200 2.5 degrees C Tg S 150 2.0 1.5 100 1.0 50 0.5 0 0.0 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference)
Possible Topics Technology: The effect of various technology assumptions (different technology availability, different costs) on mitigation in Asian regions CHINA’S CO 2 EMISSIONS INDIA’S CO 2 EMISSIONS 20 14 Reference Reference 18 Base Technology Base Technology 12 Low Technology Low Technology 16 10 14 12 GtCO 2 /yr GtCO 2 /yr 8 10 6 8 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 EMF 22 MiniCAM Scenario (Reference & Scenario 1 3.7 W/m 2 N.T.E.)
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