Arlington Public Schools and Arlington County Government Collaboration and Data Sharing to Inform Schools Projections Joint School Board/County Board Work Session December 3, 2019
Community Facilities Study (2015-2017) Community Facilities Study (CFS), 2015 – 2017 https://commissions.arlingtonva.us/community-facilities-study/ The CFS reviewed the ACG Forecast and APS Projections Methods: Consultants reviewed County population and employment forecasts and APS student projections The review reinforced validity of methods This confirmed the need for two different methodologies and projections for two different purposes Recommended short and long-term improvements for data sharing, collaboration, trend monitoring, and methodology 2
Collaboration between APS and ACG APS Projections APS Projections APS Projections APS Projections APS Projections September 30, 2015 September 30, 2017 September 30, 2018 September 30, 2019 September 30, 2016 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 Community Facilities Study Added Added 2015-2017 Enhancement Enhancement Enhancement Annual Housing Unit Forecast Recalibrate Birth Projections Affordability Master Housing Unit Database Projected Births ACG Data Update ACG Data Update ACG Forecast Round 9.1 ACG Forecast Round 9.0 September 30, 2018 September 30, 2019 July 1, 2015 July 1, 2017 3
ACG Forecast Land Use Model “The housing unit method is an acceptable methodology and is especially effective in areas with high quality data on housing development and changes.” ---- RLS Demographics, A Review of Projection Methodologies for the Arlington County Government and Arlington Public Schools , April 2, 2015. 4
ACG Forecast Land Use Model • Forecast of housing units, households, population, and jobs for a 30-year period and broken down in to 5-year increments. • Population forecast is based on the 2010 Census total population count. • Future population is estimated by applying occupancy and households statistics to projects under construction or approved (not yet under construction) and areas which could be redeveloped with greater development potential and/or change in land use. 5
ACG Forecast Guidance Guidance Variables Guidance • Housing unit occupancy and average • Density and land use is determined by County Board adopted/approved documents: household size are derived from 2010 • General Land Use Plan (GLUP) Census data. • Zoning Ordinance • Each variable is derived for the areas listed • Sector and Small Area Plans below, and for the balance of the County outside of these areas. 1. Rosslyn 7. Pentagon City 2. Courthouse 8. Columbia Pike 3. Clarendon 9. Shirlington 4. VA Square 10. Cherrydale 5. Ballston 11. Nauck 6. Crystal City 12. East Falls Church 6
ACG Development Tracking Guidance Net New Housing Units 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Net New Housing Units 7
Collaboration between APS and ACG ACG and APS implemented a methodology that links population forecasts to student projections through housing units and births. 8
Data Shared Between ACG and APS Master Housing Unit Housing Unit Actual and Database (MHUD) Forecast Projected Births ACG creates a modified Combines administrative housing unit forecast, which Births that have occurred to data from multiple sources breaks down anticipated Arlington residents and to create one database of all housing unit growth on an projected births based on housing units. annual basis for the next 10- the population forecast. years. 9
Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD) • First developed in 2015 2018 Master Housing Unit Database (MHUD ) • Updated annually as of July 1 st • Combines data from Real Estate Assessments, Housing Division (Apartments), and development tracking to create a database of all housing units in the County • Designates apartment complexes by affordability type: market rate, CAF Only, or mixed (market and CAF) • APS uses MHUD to calculate student generation factors by housing type which are applied to future housing to estimate student yield 10
Housing Unit Forecast 2018 Housing Unit Forecast 10-Year • ACG participates in the MWCOG Cooperative Forecasting Process. • Most recent: Forecast Round 9.1 • Produced by ACG as of July 1, 2017 • Adopted by MWCOG Fall 2018 • ACG produces a special housing forecast for APS: • Update based on development changes between the latest forecast round (July 1, 2017) and the current year • Breaks down 5-year incremental forecast to a 1- year forecast for a 10-year period • Every September, ACG reviews the annual housing unit forecast and provides an update to APS • The forecast includes affordable housing units in site plans/use permits approved by the County Board 11
Actual and Projected Births • Data about actual births (those that have occurred to Arlington residents) are purchased from the Virginia Department of Health by ACG • Projected births are estimated by integrating a cohort component population model and the five-year population forecasts : - Updated annually - Model recalibration 12
Improvements to Forecast County Births • The cohort component model used to project births is being recalibrated to include updates: - ACG Round 9.1 population forecast - Fertility rates - Migration rates • Updated birth forecasts, reflecting the recalibrated model, will be available in October 2019 • Updated birth forecasts will be used in the upcoming 2020-21 to 2029-30 enrollment projections 13
Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape. 14
Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth Smaller 12 th grade Larger kindergarten Migration of Projected Arlington cohorts entering cohorts graduating Residential housing families into and County “resident” APS elementary from APS high growth out of Arlington births schools schools County All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape. 15
Factors Contributing to Enrollment Growth APS Student Enrollment Snapshot Fall 2019 Projected Kindergarten Students * 3,000 Current Students (Sept. 30, 2019) ** Recent Grade 12 Cohorts (Sept. of each year) ** 2,448 2,500 2,337 2,320 2,283 2,268 2,231 2,156 2,144 2,145 2,135 2,108 2,081 2,000 1,901 1,876 1,779 1,782 1,762 1,631 1,565 1,492 1,500 1,000 500 0 K 2022- K 2021- K 2020- K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 12th, 12th, 12th, 12th, 23 22 21 Sept. '18 Sept. '17 Sept. '16 Sept. '15 * Source: Fall 2018 10-Year Projections ** Source: Membership reports for 2019 and previous years www.apsva.us/statistics/monthly-enrollment/ All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape. 16
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