ARIZONA insert it again. Economic Update & Outlook ECONOMIC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Arizona’s Economy Bottomed Out in 2010 – 4 Years Ago! • Historically A Growth Leader • But Recession Hit Earlier, Harder • Out of the Woods? Not Yet! • Long Term Outlook Positive

ARIZONA Economic Forecast 2013 2014 2015 Arizona Indicators Annual Percent Change Employment 2.1 2.4 2.5 Personal Income 2.7 4.0 4.5 Population 1.2 1.4 1.5 W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU, based on data available May 8, 2014

Slow Recovery of Lost Jobs • The U.S. has regained 99% of jobs lost in recession • Arizona has regained 56% of jobs lost in recession • Metro Phoenix has regained 63% of jobs lost in recession U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Has Regained 99% of Lost Jobs Only 113,000 Jobs for Full Recovery Peak 138 million Jan. 2008 8.6 Mil. Jobs Regained (99%) 8.7 Million U.S. Jobs Lost (6.3%) Feb. 2010 Bottom 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted, April 2014

Arizona Has Regained 56% of Lost Jobs 136,200 Jobs (44%) Still to Recover Peak 2,687,000 Oct. 2007 176,400 Jobs Regained (56%) 312,600 Arizona Jobs Lost (12%) Sept. 2010 Bottom 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted, March 2014

Arizona Jobs Lost & Regained Arizona Industry Job Loss % Regained Total All Jobs Lost 412,000 43% Construction 133,000 12% Administrative Support 67,000 61% Retail Trade 45,000 30% Manufacturing 40,000 17% Financial Activities 23,000 102% Food Service 17,000 119% Local Government 32,000 49% State Government 17,000 38% U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted, March 2014

Health Care Employment in Arizona (and U.S.) is Recession-Resistant All Arizona Jobs Health Care Jobs (Left Scale) (Right Scale)

Arizona 10 th in Job Growth in 2013 (AZ Jobs Up by 2.1% - 25 yr. Average is 3.9%) 9 14 1 11 7 45 6 2 States Ranked by 4 3 Percent Change 10 44 5 Top 10 Growth States 8 U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Phoenix 7 th in Job Growth (8 of 10 Metros From West) Percent Growth Non-Farm Employment 2013 vs. 2012 Top Ten Fastest Growing Metros 1. Riverside 6. Seattle 2. San Francisco 7. Phoenix 3. Denver 8. Dallas 4. Houston 9. Los Angeles 5. Orlando 10. Miami U. S. Bureau Labor Statistics, 28 Metro Areas with > 1 mill. Jobs

Myth or Fact? Most New Jobs are in Lower Wage Industries

Sources of AZ & US New Jobs Industry AZ Share US Share 20% 15% Admin. Support 16% 4% Financial Activities 13% 18% Health Care 13% 17% Food Service 13% 8% Construction 7% 11% Retail Trade 5% 10% Professional/Technical U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & W. P. Carey School, 2013

Arizona Creating More Middle, Higher Wage Jobs Vs. Overall U. S. Economy USA Arizona 42% 40% 33% 28% 23% 22% Lower ¡Wage Middle ¡Wage Higher ¡Wage Note: Lower Wage = $40,000 or less; Middle Wage = $41,00 - $60,000; Higher Wage = $61,000 - $85,000 based on annual industry wages from Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages for Arizona, 2012 ; new jobs from Current Employment Survey, 2013

Arizona Employment: 2014 2 More Years to Regain 136,200 Lost Jobs Annual Employment Change ¡ 130,500 127,500 51,400 51,700 61,000 40,100 26,000 - 46,800 -56,900 Arizona Job Growth: 2.1% in 2013 -189,900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast Arizona Department of Administration and W. P. Carey School of Business

Arizona Ranked 18 th in Personal Income Growth (2.7%) in 2013 8 1 21 5 3 44 9 11 10 2 6 16 7 18 48 4 U. S. States Ranked by Percent Change 2013 U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Arizona Ranked 8 th (1.2%) in Population Growth in 2013 9 1 15 20 12 6 11 5 2 3 19 8 10 47 4 U. S. States Ranked by 7 Percent Change 2013 U. S. Census Bureau

Arizona 6 th in Domestic Migration In 2013 – Down from 3 rd in 2012 7 8 10 4 3 Alaska 9 Hawaii 6 5 1 29 States in Red 2 Lost Domestic Population to 21 States in Green U.S. Census Bureau

Phoenix 3 rd as Domestic Migration Destination (Gained 96,000 in 2006) Top Ten Metro Destinations: 2013 1. Houston (55,620) 6. San Antonio (22,392) 2. Dallas (32,641) 7. Charlotte (21,382) 3. Phoenix (32,014) 8. Nashville (17,975) 4. Denver (26,536) 9. Seattle (17,926) 5. Austin (25,908 10. Orlando (17,316) U. S. Census Bureau

2014 Population Growth: 1.4% Not Enough for Robust Recovery Annual Percent Change ¡ 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast W. P. Carey School of Business, ASU & U. S. Census Bureau

Arizona Economic Outlook Summary • 2014 - better than most states - but 8 th lean year of subpar Arizona growth • Indicators show “not out of the woods” • Still 2 – 3 years before full recovery • Major risk is continued ineffective growth policies at national level

Lee.mcpheters@asu.edu http://knowwpcarey.com/