APPLICATION OF NEW APPROACHES TO BUDGET SUPPORT EVALUATION – EC & DAC SUPPORTED EVALUATIONS IN TUNISIA, MALI AND ZAMBIA THE TUNISIA CASE Enzo Caputo (DRN) Meeting Series on Budget Support ODI Meeting 1 - September 22, 2010 Not for quote. For Internal Use during the meeting.
Remind of the 3 Step approach 2 • The approach builds on the previous experience and aims at overcoming some of its limits, namely the attempt to find the development results at the end of a linear chain that starts with donors’ inputs. • It aims at ensuring an adequate consideration of the historical, political and economic context in the determination of the results, • While identifying the specific Budget Support contribution.
Comprehensive Evaluation Framework 3
The 3 Steps 4 • Step 1 covers levels 1 to 3 of the IL in their relations between each other and the context . It includes: (i) a description of the inputs and their assessment in relation to the context; (ii) an assessment of the outputs generated by the implementation of the programme; and (iii) an assessment of the Government policy changes supported and possibly induced by Budget Support (level 3). • Step 2 covers levels 4 and 5 in relation with level 3 and the context . This is the main innovation compared to the previous approaches. It allows an investigation of the actual processes that have occurred and factors that have played toward the achievement (or non achievement) of the intended outcomes and impacts. This section of the evaluation allows a political economy assessment and various kinds of quantitative analyses, according to the data available. It highlights the relation between the development results and the policy changes supported by the programme. • Step 3 compares the results of the previous Steps and identifies the contribution of Budget Support to the outcomes and impacts, via the government policies. The approach allows an emphasis on the results, but avoids the limits that other methods, like the RCT, have shown when addressing complex programmes .
BS 3 STEPS EVALUATION 5 Figure 2 - GBS/ SBS Comprehensive Evaluation Framework: the Three-step approach GOVERNMENT POLICY & SPENDING ACTIONS (STRATEGY) Inputs to Government Policy & Spending Actions 3. Induced Outputs. Positive 4. Outcomes. Positive EXTERNAL FACTORS, CONTEXT FEATURES AND FEED BACK PROCESSES changes in the financing and responses by beneficiaries 2.1. Direct Outputs. – service users and institutional framework for 5. Impacts. Improvement in the economic actors – to public spending and public Sustainable Growth relationship between external 1.1. GBS / SBS inputs policy, and in public policy Government policy & Poverty Reduction assistance and the national management and service management and service budget & policy process delivery delivery. Transfer of Funds to Increased size and share of Improved fiscal discipline Increased use and Budget external assistance funds made and macroeconomic appreciation by the Enhanced & available through the national management. beneficiaries of the goods Policy dialogue and budget and services provided by sustainable Increased size and share of Strengthened PFM and the public sector. related conditionality economic growth budget available for procurement systems. Positive response by the TA/capacity building Reductions in discretionary spending Increased predictability of Improved public policies ‟ general economy to the income & non- GBS/ SBS aligned to improvements in external funds design and public policy income poverty Policy dialogue and processes. government initiatives government policies and Empowerment & targeted by BS systems and harmonised conditionalities, coordinated, Increased funding for arrangements. across donors consistent with and conducive social inclusion of for government strategy discretionary spending poor people and Increased business TA/capacity building resulting in increased disadvantaged confidence deriving from quantity and quality of goods groups (including coordinated, consistent with more effective and conducive for government and services provided by the women) macroeconomic and public sector. strategy External assistance as a whole Other areas, regulatory policies. Enhanced allocative and more harmonised & aligned according to specific Improved general operational efficiency of partnership confidence of people and public expenditure. frameworks and 1.2. Various Government 2.2. Other effects by various enhanced democratic priorities (e.g. inputs Government inputs Improved budget process, xxxx Domestic Revenue Funding accountability, improvements in particularly over the including better links democracy, human and Domestic Policy Inputs budget process. between government and rights, environment protection, … .) parliament 1.3. Other external 2.3. Other effects by other assistance programmes external assistance xxxx - xxxx Global economic development Various features of the “entry conditions” Government capacity to implement reforms; Capacity of public sector Asset endowments Overall aid framework Extent of political commitment to reform processes Nature of demand for Govt services Responses to changing incentives Existing learning processes and tools Strength of domestic accountability
The application to Tunisia The reference to the Tunisian case supports the present methodological discussion and should not be intended as an anticipation of the actual results, since the final evaluation reports are still being considered by the partners and will be discussed only in the next weeks. 6 Programme Year of Amount EC actual The total GBS decision (millions €) Payment (including the (millions €) contribution of FAS I (with the WB) 1996 100 + 75M$ 100 Appui budgétaire FAS II (with the WB and the AfDB) 1999 80 + 300M$ 80 the Banks) Global - ABG FAS III (with the WB and the AfDB) 2001 80 + 468M$ 67,1 ranges from 0.4 FAS IV (with the WB and the AfDB) 2005 78 + 267M$ 77,8 to 1% of the PAC (programme d'appui à la 2006 41 9 GDP and from compétitivité) 1 to > 2 % of PAGBO (programme d'appui à la 2007 30 the public gestion budgétaire par objectifs) expenditure. Programme d'appui à la réforme de 2000 40 39,8 l'éducation de base Appui budgétaire Assurance maladie 2000 40 19,7 Sectoriel - ABS Appui à la modernisation du secteur 2002 20 17,8 portuaire Appui à la modernisation de 2003 48 46,8 l'enseignement supérieur Appui à la réforme de l'enseignement 2005 30 17,5 Secondaire MANFORM II (appui au secteur de 2006 30 10 la formation professionnelle) TOTAL 587 485,5
7 Facilités d’Ajustement Structurel (FAS) - Appui Budgétaire Global Objectif Objectifs spécifiques / Secteurs d’intervention FAS I Stabilité macroéconomique Bâtir la zone de libre 1. Stabilité macro-économique échange avec l’UE FAS II 2. Secteurs bancaires 3. Désengagement de l’Etat. Améliorer la compétitivité 1. Gestion de la dette extérieure et élargissement assiette fiscale 2. Secteur Privé, Investissement, Concurrence, Privatisation FAS III 3. Technologies info et communication (TIC) 4. Intermédiation financière et assurances 1. Maintien d’un cadre macro -économique solide Consolider l’amélioration FAS IV 2. Investissement privé de la compétitivité 3. Renforcement du secteur financier : banques et assurances Appui Budgétaire Sectoriel Modernisation de Contribuer à la croissance de l’emploi Améliorer la pertinence de l’offre de l’école l'enseignement et des revenus ainsi qu’à la réalisation supérieure. supérieur - PAMES de la société du savoir (X Plan). Acquisition de la méthode CDMT Appui à la réforme Contribuer à l’amélioration de l’efficacité Améliorer l’offre éducative notamment dans de l'enseignement interne et externe et de l’équité du les domaines professionnels. Secondaire système scolaire Synergie public-privé Appui au secteur Contribuer à la réforme de la FP Promotion de la formation professionnelle (FP) de la formation engagée par le Gouvernement pour en faire une voie de réussite professionnelle - Poursuite de la mise à niveau du système de FP MANFORM II Développement de l’efficience du dispositif de FP
Government and Partners - Reference Group in Tunis 8 • The evaluation has started before a full agreement had been reached at DAC level on the methodology tests. Therefore, it has regarded only the EC funded programmes . • The strong harmonisation of EC, WB and AfDB, in the management of GBS (including joint formulation and monitoring) -however- has required that such partners be completely on board and participate in the RG . • The local RG has met four times in Tunis. • The Tunisian Government has established a task force – headed by the present Minister of Development and International Cooperation (then vice Minister) of not less than 20 heads of department in the different areas. The task force has met the team three times in plenary and various other times in restricted meetings to discuss the outputs of the work.
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