Anticipating Future Skills - Cairns 13 No ve mb e r 2018 Jobs Que - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Anticipating Future Skills - Cairns 13 No ve mb e r 2018

Jobs Que e nsland A voic e for industr y and the r e gions a ntic ipa te future skill ne e ds - de dic a te d e ng a g e me nt, re se a rc h a nd - a na lytic s c a pa b ility wo rkfo rc e de ve lo pme nt a nd pla nning - a c o nduit b e twe e n industry, - Go ve rnme nt a nd tra ining

e Skills utur Antic ipating F

Antic ipating F utur e Skills pr oje c t • E xpe rt fo rum he ld No ve mb e r 2016 to c o -de sig n princ iple s fo r de ve lo ping a pla c e -b a se d a ppro a c h to a ntic ipa ting skills ne e ds. • Co mb ina tio n o f sc e na rio pla nning a nd e c o no mic mo de lling to 2022 • Ba se line sc e na rio de ve lo pe d utilising Que e nsla nd T re a sury Budg e t fo re c a sts • T hre e pla usib le future sc e na rio s to he lp ma na g e future unc e rta inty

Sc e nar io de ve lopme nt • I n la te 2017, wo rksho ps c o nduc te d a c ro ss No rth, Ce ntra l a nd So uthe rn Que e nsla nd • F o c us o n the impa c t o f va rio us sc e na rio s o n re g io na l e c o no my, industrie s a nd la b o ur ma rke ts • F e e db a c k a lso so ug ht via surve y

ios he Sc e nar T

• T o inc re a se te c hno lo g ic a l g ro wth suc h tha t a ve ra g e la b o ur pro duc tivity o f a ll industrie s in Que e nsla nd is 25 b a se po ints hig he r tha n the b a se line e a c h ye a r b e twe e n 2017-18 a nd 2021-22. HE T e c h, Unde rwo o d. Pho to g ra phe r: We lc o me to the F o ld.

state s , 2016-17 Ne t inte r state migr ation flows be twe e n Que e nsland and othe r Que e nsland inte r state migr ation by age gr oup – te n ye ar s to 2014-15 0 - 14 15-64 65 + 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 So urc e : QGSO - 10.0 So urc e : ABS 3412.0 – Mig ra tio n, Australia

• An increase in net interstate migration to Queensland of 30,000 beginning in 2018; while international migration remains at 23,000 per annum over the forecast period. • The composition of interstate migration to reflect the age composition of interstate migrants.

E xte r nal Impac t • T ha t the pric e o f iro n o re , c o king c o a l a nd the rma l c o a l fa lls 50 pe r c e nt fro m the ir re spe c tive b a se line pric e s b e twe e n 2017-18 a nd 2021-22. So urc e : Que e nsland T re a sury, 2017

he Mode lling T

ns SA4 (ASGS Code 306), 2016 Cair

Mode l outputs • I ndustry da ta – ANZSI C Gro up (3 dig it)  214 I ndustry Gro ups • Oc c upa tio n da ta – ANZSCO Unit Gro up (4 dig it)  358 Oc c upa tio n Unit Gro ups • Austra lia n Sta nda rd Cla ssific a tio n o f E duc a tio n  L e ve l o f E duc a tio n (e .g . Ba c he lo r de g re e )  F ie ld o f E duc a tio n (e .g . F o o d, Ho spita lity a nd Pe rso na l Se rvic e s)

e sting and Validation T

T e sting and validation of dr aft outputs • Sta ke ho lde rs we re pre se nte d with a n o ve rvie w o f the dra ft mo de lling o utputs • F e e db a c k wa s inc o rpo ra te d to e nsure tha t re sults a c c ura te ly re fle c t the re a litie s o f the c urre nt a nd future wo rkfo rc e

indings Ke y F

E mployme nt to 2022 ac r oss all sc e nar ios, Cair ns Base line 2017 110,498 Base line 2022 119,266 Sc e nar io 1 119,259 Sc e nar io 2 121,025 Sc e nar io 3 119,599

Ne w jobs in Cair ns in 2022, all sc e nar ios 12,000 10,527 10,000 9,101 8,768 8,761 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Base line Sc e nar io 1 Sc e nar io 2 Sc e nar io 3

Impac t of sc e nar ios, Cair ns and Que e nsland (c hange fr om 2022 base line ) Cair ns Que e nsland -0.01 Sc e nar io 1 0.03 1.47 Sc e nar io 2 1.25 0.28 Sc e nar io 3 -0.37 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

(base line sc e nar Jobs gr (% ) 10.0 15.0 20.0 - 5.0 0.0 5.0 16.2 Ipswic h owth var 10.9 Gold Coast 9.7 Mor e ton Bay- North ie s ac r 9.4 io, 2017 – 2022) Mor e ton Bay - South 8.2 L ogan- Be aude se r t oss r 8.1 Sunshine Coast 8.0 Que e nsland e gions 8.0 T ownsville 7.9 Cairns 7.7 T oowoomba 7.3 Br isbane 5.7 Wide Bay 3.6 Dar ling Downs - Mar anoa 3.2 F itzr oy 2.1 Mac kay -2.9 Que e nsland Outbac k

Jobs gr owth var ie s ac r oss industr ie s 8,768 20.0 8,500 15.0 10.0 5,500 5.0 0.0 2,428 2,500 - 5.0 954 886 859 722 619 565 534 456 325 - 10.0 270 260 157 77 27 25 23 -500 - 15.0 -186 -233 E mplo yme nt Gro wth (L HS) Pe rc e nta g e I nc re a se (RHS)

Base line E mployme nt for top 15 industr y sub-divisions - 2017 to 2022 No. e mploye d Change by 2022 I Industr y Sub-Divisions 2017 (% ) o Pr e sc hool and Sc hool E duc ation 7,507 7.0 o Public Administr ation 7,347 6.0 o Othe r Stor e -Base d Re tailing 6,806 4.0 o F ood and Be ve r age Se r vic e s 6,508 0.0 o Constr uc tion Se r vic e s 6,259 4.7 o Pr ofe ssional, Sc ie ntific and T e c hnic al Se r vic e s (E xc e pt Compute r Syste m De sign and 5,638 13.7 Re late d Se r vic e s) o Me dic al and Othe r He alth Car e Se r vic e s 5,305 14.3 o F ood Re tailing 4,236 2.4 o Agr ic ultur e 3,646 13.7 o Hospitals 3,373 15.9 o Soc ial Assistanc e Se rvic e s 3,119 22.8 o F ood Pr oduc t Manufac tur ing 2,854 11.1 o Adult, Community and Othe r E duc ation 2,663 4.2 o Administr ative Se r vic e s 2,643 8.7 o Building Cle aning, Pe st Contr ol and Othe r Suppor t Se r vic e s 2,423 12.6

Jobs gr owth var ie s ac r oss oc c upations (base line sc e nar io, 2017 – 2022) 973 958 1000 30.0 25.0 800 635 20.0 600 520 518 15.0 426 399 384 386 370 400 286 285 222 218 10.0 222 200 5.0 0 0.0

A mor e e duc ate d wor kfor c e 40,000 30.0 35,000 25.5 25.0 30,000 20.0 25,000 15.0 14.3 13.8 13.0 20,000 10.0 15,000 8.0 5.0 10,000 0.0 5,000 -1.7 0 - 5.0 Postgraduate Graduate Bac he lor De gre e Advanc e d Ce r tific ate L e ve l No post sc hool De gr e e Diploma and L e ve l Diploma and Graduate Assoc iate De gr e e Ce r tific ate L e ve l No. E mploye d 2017 (L HS) No. E mploye d 2022 (L HS) Gr owth % (RHS)

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Data tools: Re gions

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Data tools: Oc c upations

Qualific ations

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