Antecedents of Organizational Sophistication in Violent Non-State Actors Gina S. Ligon Michael K. Logan Associate Professor Doctoral Candidate The Center for Collaboration Science School of Criminology and Criminal Justice University of Nebraska at Omaha University of Nebraska at Omaha This research was supported by the Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office and the Department of Homeland Science Directorate’s Office of University Programs through Award Number 2012-ST-061 CS0001, Center for the Study of Terrorism and Behavior (CSTAB 1.12) made to START to investigate THEME: 1 the role of social, behavioral, cultural, and economic factors on radicalization and violent extremism (Principal Investigator for this project, Dr. Gina Ligon, University of Nebraska Omaha). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of CTTSO, DHS, or START. 1
Agenda for Today’s Talk • Who We Are • Indicators of Organizational Sophistication in VNSAs • Leadership for the Extremism and Dangerous for Innovative Results (LEADIR) Project • Application to VNSAs in CENTCOM AOR • Conclusions and Benefits for Planners 2
The Center for Collaboration Science • Interdisciplinary Research Center Examining All Forms of Collaboration • Radicalization and Violent Extremism (RAVE) Division • DoD University Affiliated Research Center (UARC) and DHS Center of Excellence Performer 3
Centralization Formalization Organizational What is Sophistication Organizational Sophistication? Specialization 4
As Organizational Sophistication increases so too does the VNSAs’: - Aptitude for complex operations and tactics - Organizational capital - Capacity for innovation Why Organizational Organizational Indicators Dimension Advantages Sophistication • Hierarchical agenda-setting • Clearly defined goals Centralization • Top-management-team • Resource management Matters • Operational autonomy • • Increased accountability Titles that codify functions Formalization • • Efficient decision-making Uniforms signaling tenure • • Institutional memory Application process • Diverse organizational activities Specialization • Expertise • Distinctions between sub-units • Cross-functional collaboration 5
280 Violent Non-State Actors Open Source Data Collection Coding Scheme for Historically Verified Organizational Information 6
Organizational Dimension Indicators Mean (SD) • Presence of Leadership (0-1) • .84 (.39) Centralization • Top-Down Command-and-Control (1-5) • 3.43 (1.12) • Territorial Control (0-1) • .32 (.47) • .37 (.49) • Organizational Training (0-1) • .65 (.48) • Combat Training (0-1) Formalization Measuring • • .40 (.49) Ideological Training (0-1) • • .51 (.50) Uniforms(0-1) Organizational Sophistication • Deep-Level Diversity (1-5) • 2.41 (1.25) Specialization • Departmentalization (1-5) • 2.94 (1.18) • • .25 (.44) Services (0-1) Organizational Sophistication 7
US Central Command Area of Responsibility *Adopted from centcom.mil/area-of-responsibility 8
Jaish-e-Mohammad Lebanese Hezbollah Sindu Liberation Army Badr Brigades Low Levels High Levels Organizational Sophistication Baloch Republican Guards AQAP Kata’ib Hezbollah 9
3000.00 2907.85 2500.00 Average Lethality (2008 - 2017) 2000.00 Organizational 1500.00 Sophistication and Lethality 1000.00 658.15 500.00 48.18 0.00 Low Moderate High Level of Organizational Sophistication 10
80.00 77.92 69.13 Number of Successful Attacks on Hard Targets (2008 - 2017) 70.00 60.00 Organizational 50.00 Sophistication 40.00 and Successful 30.00 Attacks on Hard 20.00 Targets 6.45 10.00 0.00 Low Moderate High Level of Organizational Sophistication 11
1000.00 995.38 900.00 Average Number of Hard Targets Killed (2008 - 2017) 800.00 700.00 Organizational 600.00 Sophistication 500.00 427.64 and Lethality on 400.00 Hard Targets 300.00 200.00 (General) 100.00 30.64 0.00 Low Moderate High Level of Organizational Sophistication 12
500.00 483.31 Average Number of Hard Targets Killed (2008 -2017) 400.00 Organizational 340.54 Sophistication 300.00 278.87 and Lethality on 200.00 Hard Targets 171.54 (by Target Type) 100.00 74.72 74.05 12.55 11.55 6.55 0.00 Low Moderate High Level of Organizational Sophistication Military Targets Police Targets Government Targets 13
Organizational Sophistication is an Observable Construct in VNSAs Organizational Sophistication is Linked to Increasingly Complex Violence Three Main Findings Practical Way of Examining Capabilities in VNSAs Example Indicator Checklist of Organizational Sophistication Indicator Questions Yes/No Does the VNSA have a clearly defined leader? Does the VNSA control territory? Does the VNSA engage in combat training? Do members of the VNSA wear uniforms? 14
Inform Potential Capabilities of Emerging Threats Benefits to Anticipate Target Selection Based on VNSA’s Planners Organizational Sophistication Provide Additional Tool for Prioritization and Resource Allocation in Fiscally Constrained Environment 15
Thank You Gina S. Ligon gligon@unomaha.edu Michael K. Logan mlogan@unomaha.edu 16
Recent Works Supporting SMA Effort Ligon, G.S. & Logan, M.K. (2019). Organizational and leadership consolidation and fragmentation in the AFPAK region. Logan, M.K. & Ligon, G.S. (2019). Using organizational sophistication to predict influence from violent non-state actors.*** Logan, M.K., Ligon, G.S., & Zimmerman, L (2019). Influential violent extremist organizational partners of Iran. Logan, M.K., Zimmerman, L., Parker, B., & Ligon, G.S. (2019). Terrorism in the Philippines and its influence on Great Powers. Zimmerman, L., Logan, M.K., & Ligon, G.S. (2019). Violent non-state actors and the Kashmir conflict. 17 *** The current presentation is based on this effort.
Organizational Sophistication & Additional Organizational Characteristics Organizational Sophistication * Organizational Age . 35, p < .01 Organizational Size .53, p < .01 State Sponsorship .30, p < .05 Illicit Funding Streams .36, p < .01 18 * Results based on Pearson’s r Correlation analysis
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