Anglo-French Portfolio Analysis Dr Craig Smith & Dr Philippe Sellem (MBDA) ISMOR 2013 This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Scope of the presentation • The Context for the Analysis • The Team CW background • Additional Challenges for Anglo-French Collaboration • The Analysis Process • Requirements Exploration • Concept Generation • Concept Refinement and Analysis • Portfolio Generation and Analysis • Key Highlights from the Analysis • Lessons Learnt • Summary Ref. : - Page 2 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Team CW - Sector Transformation • Portfolio Management Agreement - between MoD and MBDA covering portfolio of Complex Weapons (missile systems) • Maximum Sovereignty from portfolio c.£600M pa • 100% Flexible within the Pipeline • Incentivisation towards Joint Benefits • Successful operation for 3 years • Libya and SDSR / PR12 • MoD-MBDA Bilateral represents the best Value for Money option - c. £1.2Bn efficiencies 23% Modularity & Re-use Stockpile Savings 26% Commonality 14% Sector Management Flex on Existing Contracts Collaboration Platform Integration 2% 15% 5% Support Savings 7% 8% Ref. : - Page 3 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Filière Missile and Anglo-French cooperation • Filière Missile – portfolio of capabilities provided by MBDA to the French MoD • The French CW pipeline • Different arrangements compared to Team CW, suited to the different MoD – industry environment • Compatible with FR industrial policy • One Complex Weapons sector - Feb 2012 • Working towards 10 year strategic plan • Potential efficiency savings of up to 30% - Not just ad hoc collaboration! Ref. : - Page 4 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Objectives & Scope • Objectives: • Conduct comparative analysis between “collaborative” versus “national” procurement options • Identify key issues • Scope • Consider the entire CW pipelines in UK and FR • Consider capability, budget and industrial issues, including export • Exploratory analysis to consider consequences at a strategic level, not to make capability decisions • Consider a thirty year window (2012 – 2042), recognising that opportunities for joint projects grow with time - Most of the first decade is committed Ref. : - Page 5 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Overview of Process To provide a high level characterisation of the To select champions and characterise them in military problem space suitable for joint UK-FR cost and capability terms sets of Concepts to analysis be input to the Portfolio analysis Concept Vignette Selection & Generation Analysis Requirements Concept Concept Portfolio Capture Vignettes Generation Development Development Concept Portfolio Generation Generation Workshop & Iteration To generate a set of (Complex) Weapon To generate a set of Complex Weapon Portfolios Concept Classes which will meet military that explore the overall capability & affordability requirements in the 2020 – 2040+ timeframe trade-offs in the 2020 – 2040+ timeframe This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2011.
Exploring Requirements Vignettes Ground Forces Encounter • Symmetric Threat in Urban Vignettes used to explore underlying military need • Target plus context, including any targeting constraints • Avoids early numerical requirements (“range > x”) • Set chosen to stimulate ISTAR identifies insurgent planting innovation IED • Sparse coverage of all domains and tasks (28 vignettes) • Representative conditions • Included some edge of envelope tasks – e.g. counter narcotics Ref. : - Page 7 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Concept Generation • C8.1 Joint Development Man- Mixed FR-UK group from Portable Anti-Tank MBDA • Technical • Business Development • Export & Marketing Description : A guided man-portable fire-and- • 2 day workshop forget missile to provide a top-attack anti-tank capability . • Concepts generated against ISD: 2025 (20-year service, the vignettes no re-life) • Rapid score to identify Dimensions: 15 kg 1.2 m 0.14 m (L) (D) strengths and weaknesses Range: 4 km • Prompted further ideas Integration: Infantry Guidance & Fibre optic wire with IR seeker Nav: Effecter: 9 kg Tandem Shaped Charge • Propulsion: 2.5 kg Solid rocket Resulted in ~ 90 concepts for Stockpile: FR: 2000 / UK: 2000 (50 / 50 reusable 4 kg launchers) refinement Comments: Low cost weapon with secure tactical targeting Ref. : - Page 8 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Characterising and Selecting Concepts • Selected Concepts are “champions” for a region of trade space • Not about picking winners, project decisions lie in the future • High uncertainty in cost & capability at this stage - ranking Variants - Trade-offs Seeker type Propulsion Warhead Airframe Cost etc. Joint development X-procurement Concept Variants around a concept Option for portfolio analysis Capability Ref. : - Page 9 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Cost Analysis Example • Parametric estimated Whole Life Cost, including integration • Very Rough Order of Magnitude • Correct ranking of Concepts, more uncertain for radical options Two national systems per nation One Modular family Joint Total Joint Concept costs Total FR Extra stock, Joint Concept costs More integration UK More proving Joint Multirole UK FR Joint Joint Joint New developments Technology Capability costs Update Ref. : - Page 10 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Capability Assessment • Needs to be high level • Technical data relatively immature • Large number of concepts • Focused on key attributes (see next slide) Vignette Capability Criteria Matrix vs (thresholds) Vignettes Concept Scores vs Vignettes Concept Concept criteria Capability scores score Ref. : - Page 11 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Concept and Capability Scoring • • Criteria – scored on 0-3 range Each vignette is characterised • with a minimum acceptable Effect vs target types (matrix) • level for each criteria (can be Survivability • zero if not a driver) Range / reach (given launch • platform) Each concept has an • aggregated score against each Targeting/ discrimination • vignette (0-3 range) Persistence/ availability • • Ability to attack moving / 0 = no capability • mobile targets 1 = limited capability • • Responsiveness 2 = adequate capability • • Precision of attack 3 = robust capability • • Countermeasures / False Each concept has a capability targets robustness score (%), by summing the • Collateral damage risk vignette scores for relevant vignettes Ref. : - Page 12 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
Portfolio Selection • Similar issues to selecting concepts – champions • Many system choices for each capability spread of data • Use as the vehicle to tease out the high level issues • Capability, cost and timescale compromises, export, sustainment All National Key variables Programmes % of programmes joint vs national Cross procurement Cost Modularity & re-use All Joint Sequencing Development etc. Max Cross Procurement Capability Ref. : - Page 13 - This document and the information contained herein is proprietary information of MBDA and shall not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior authorization of MBDA. MBDA 2012.
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