GAO’s Science and Technology Portfolio and Its Implications for R&D and Innovation Policy Timothy M. Persons, Ph.D. Chief Scientist U.S. Government Accountability Office personst@gao.gov @GAOChfScientist www.gao.gov blog.gao.gov www.linkedin.com/pub/timothy-persons/9/856/9ba/ 1
U.S. Government Accountability Office • Is an independent, nonpartisan agency serving the Congress and helps improve the performance and ensure the accountability of the federal government. • Core values are Accountability, Integrity, and Reliability • Oversight, Insight, and Foresight • To ensure independence, the Comptroller General (CG) is appointed to a 15-year term by the President. Other than the CG, there are no political appointees at GAO. 2
Evolution of GAO Mission • At first, the organization’s primary function was financial auditing, but over time it evolved to include performance auditing GAO established 1921 1970 2002 2004 Oversee Provide oversight Tech Assessment + + financial management of program capability processes of the performance & broader within the Executive Branch government-wide Legislative Branch issues • As GAO’s mission evolved, so did the expertise of its staff (from auditors to accountants, to a wide range of experts in STEM) • GAO's legal name became the Government Accountability Office (2004) • Permanent TA Mission Established in 2007 Page 3
Evolution of Science and Technology Support to the Congress NAS NRC GAO NAE OTA 1863 … 1916 … 1921 … 1964 1967 1969 1970 1972 1974 1995 2002 2007 Not to scale Page 4
Using Biometrics for Border Security (GAO- 03-174) RESULTS Biometric technologies could be used to secure nation’s border (associating a person with travel documents such as visas or passports) but have limitations Costs of using facial, fingerprint and iris recognition would be between $1.3-2.9 billion initially & between $0.7-1.5 billion annually thereafter Important policy implications include privacy & international relations IMPACT Testimony on use of biometrics in security before three Congressional committees Information used to inform Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 Page 5
Cybersecurity for Critical Infrastructure Protection (GAO-04-321) RESULTS Cybersecurity technologies are not being purchased or implemented to the fullest extent Long-term efforts are needed, such as development of standards, research into cybersecurity vulnerabilities and technological solutions, and the transition of research results into commercially available products The federal government can play an important role in increasing use of such technologies IMPACT Primer report used by interested members of congress to come up to speed on cyber issues Page 6
Protecting Structures and Improving Communications During Wildland Fires (GAO-05-380) RESULTS Emerging technologies, such as fire behavior modeling and automated fire detection systems, could prove useful in the future to protect communities from wildland fires New communications technologies could aid interoperability but better coordination is needed between federal, state and local agencies IMPACT Testimony provided on technologies to protect structures and improve communications during wildland fires Page 7
Securing the Transport of Cargo Containers (GAO-06-68SU) RESULTS CBP study demonstrated that existing container seals provided inadequate security against physical intrusions. For example, seals installed on container doors can be bypassed by simply removing an entire container door Thus, CBP desired a technology with the ability to detect door openings and eventually detect and report intrusions on all six sides of a container IMPACT Reference: GAO-10-887 Law now requires DHS standards and procedures for securing cargo and monitoring security while in transit Page 8
Explosives Detection Technologies to Protect Passenger Rail (GAO-10-898) RESULTS Explosives detection technologies show promise but have potential limitations in the rail environment. Considerations include screening throughput, mobility, and durability, and physical space limitations. Federal agencies and rail operators are likely to be confronted with cost, potential privacy and legal implications of using these technologies. IMPACT Support to recent testimony concerning TSA risk management of passenger rail systems Informing debate on nature and extent of passenger rail security Page 9
Climate Engineering Technologies (GAO-11-71) RESULTS Climate engineering technologies do not now offer a viable response to global climate change, yet many experts advocate accountable R&D as an insurance policy against worst case climate change scenarios. R&D efforts will also require improvements to computational infrastructure, climate models, and data. Although a majority of U.S. adults were not initially familiar with climate engineering, they were nevertheless open to accountable R&D activities. IMPACT Informing debate on implications of various hypothesized approaches to engineer the global climate system Complementary report to GAO-10-903 – Climate Change: A Coordinated Strategy Could Focus Federal Geoengineering Research and Inform Governance Efforts Page 10
Neutron Detectors: Alternatives to Using Helium- 3 (GAO-11-753) RESULTS Science facilities and federal agencies see three promising alternative neutron detector technologies: boron-10 lined proportional detectors, boron trifluoride gas proportional detectors, and lithium-6 scintillators, each with a TRL ranging from 5 to 7. A boron-10 lined proportional detector may be available for domestic radiation portal monitor deployments in early fiscal year 2012. Federal agencies are funding more than 30 research and development projects that may result in additional alternative neutron detector technologies. IMPACT Requesters utilized report as technology scorecard for multi-agency R&D efforts Complementary report to GAO-11-472 – Managing Critical Isotopes: Weaknesses in DOE's Management of Helium-3 Delayed the Federal Response to a Critical Supply Shortage Page 11
More Than Moore Roadmap Page 12 Source: ITRS
The Keeling Curve: 1960-2010 Page 13 Source: GAO-11-71
Cancer Incidence Rates: 2010 Page 14 Source: NCI
Truck Volume: 2002 - 2035 Source: TRB
Historical Categories Based on Materials THE IRON AGE THE STONE AGE THE BRONZE AGE 1000 BC and forward Up to 4000 BC 3000-1000 BC 16
Why a strategic discussion on the innovation and its relationship to manufacturing is both timely and useful 17
Why a strategic discussion on the innovation and its relationship to manufacturing is both timely and useful 18
General Sketch of Conversations Regarding the Innovation System 19
OECD Analysis on patents for the world’s major city-regions Page 20
Opportunity Cost: Key Technologies Developed in U.S., Yet Commercialized Overseas • Rechargeable lithium-ion batteries • Liquid-crystal displays • Oxide ceramics • Semiconductor memory devices • Semiconductor manufacturing equipment (Steppers) • Flat panel displays • Robotics • Solar cells • Advanced lighting Source: Rising to the Challenge: U.S. Innovation Policy for Global Economy ; Charles W. Wessner and Alan Wm. Wolff, Editors; Committee on Comparative National Innovation Policies: Best Practice for the 21 st Century; Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy; Policy and Global Affairs; National Research Council, 2012 21
Cumulative U.S. Investments in Nanotech R&D U.S. National Nanotechnology Initiative Funding, Fiscal Years 2001 – 2014 (Cumulative Total ≈ $20B) Note : Amount shown for FY 2009 includes funding from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Page 22
U.S. Investments in R&D and Challenges to Competitiveness Representation of Public Investments in Nanotechnology R&D in 2013 Note: This bar chart uses shading to characterize the uncertain levels of investment, based on key participants’ opinions and avail able projections of public investments for 2013. Specifically, the lighter the color of a bar, the greater the uncertainty associated with the projection. Use of fading on the upper portion of bars is also intended to convey the uncertainty associated with these projections. Our intent is to avoid conveying an unwarranted level of precision, which might be associated with a specific data point for each nation. Finally, we note that this graphic shows indicators of public investments but excludes estimates of private-sector investments because of the greater uncertainty that key participants associated with them. a Public investments shown for the United States include both state investments (projection) and the federal investment represented by the 2013 budget (continuing resolution) for the National Nanotechnology Initiative or NNI. The NNI focuses primarily on R&D. Amounts spent by NNI agencies and departments may vary from budget figures because of factors such as sequestration. b The projected public investment for Germany does not include its contribution to the European Commission’s effort in nanotechnolo gy R&D. Page 23
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