An Analyst lyst Mee eeting ting 1Q20 20 Re Results sults 20 May y 2020 020 Ticke cker: BCPG (SET) T)
Agenda Ag nda Strategic direction update Recent developments Hydropower recap Portfolio, Performance & Guidelines 3
Agenda Ag nda Strategic direction update Recent developments Hydropower recap Portfolio, Performance & Guidelines 4
COVID-19: Implications for BCPG Shor ort t term m COVID-19 19 impact ct visibl ble e in 3 o 3 out t of f 5 c 5 countr untries es wi with limited ited magnit agnitude ude Type Thailand iland Japan an Lao o PDR Indo done nesia sia The e Philippi ippines nes Curtailment accelerated on Planned shutdown in 2020 Operating erating some projects due to lower partly postponed to 2021. (No major impact) (No impact) (No impact) asset sets s demand. Effective days* in 2020 drop (THB 5.8 mn) from 12 to 7 days. Limited access to A few months delayed in Developin veloping g transmission line site construction for rooftop Slightly delay due to asset sets survey on but overall (No impact) (No impact) projects limitation of working hours. construction timeline still on (12.0 MW) track Pot otential ential Travel restriction and several Covid-19 control put in place resulting in limitation of BD activities proje ojects cts 5 Remarks : Effective days is weighted average shutdown days by % MW
5-year CAPEX Plan remain unchanged but timing will probably be shifted from COVID-19 CAPEX EX Plan for Y2019-20 2024 24 CAPEX EX Plan for Y2019-20 2024 24 (Afte ter COVID-19) 19) (Befo fore re COVID-19) 19) Potential Shift from 2020 to 2021 Potential Shift to spread across 2021-2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Committed fill Adder Growth Committed fill Adder For Growth CAPEX THB 45,000 mn CAPEX THB 45,000 mn 6 6
BCPG ambition to fill adder gap and growth still unchanged Next t 5 y 5 years rs fo for fi filling ling EBIT ITDA DA gap wi with consecut nsecutive ive grow owth th 2016 - 2020 2021 - 2025 2026 - 2030 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Solar TH Other current porfolio Nam San 3A + 3B Committed pipeline Potential pipeline 7 Remarks : For demonstration purposes only
Main components to fill adder gap still confirmed Adder er gap still ll be fi filled led under er COVID-19 19 fr from om commi mmitted tted pipeli elines nes Net inco Net income g e gap ap Gap from adder expired Curr rrent nt status with COVID ID-19 19 impact act New Inco New Income Co e Contribu ntributio ion Income contribution from existing pipeline ✓ LA Wind LA nd Swan 600 MW* Hold 45% COD 2023 “Within 2023” Share Profit from investment in Star Energy from ✓ Secured ID Geo ID Geo price escalation and interest expenses reduction. Share Profit from investment in Star Energy from ✓ ID ID WW uni WW unit t 3 “Within 2024” WW unit 3 Full Year Operation of Hydro Nam San 3A and ✓ LA LA Hydro Secured 3B of 114 MW (recently acquired) Turning all JP pipeline (75 MW) into operation. ✓ JP Solar JP Solar All COD within 2022 Target COD from Y2021 to Y2022 ✓ Equivalent to Hydro 61 MW Ga Gap to be fi to be fill lled ed “Within 2021” 8 Remarks : * Equity MW of 270 MW (SWAN) / For demonstration purposes only
Covid-19 reinforces an importance of energy transition “…this is a stress test for national grid and more confident to “People learn air quality during lockdown provides an end - absorb renewable going forward” state scenario of transitioning fossil to clean energy” New w Delhi Venice Renewabl wable share re of overall all electr ctrici icity ty genera eratio tion n befor ore e and during ing lockdo kdown wn Unit: t: % wn kdown e lockd 60.50% Before 52% 45% 27% kdown ing lockdo 46% 24% During Category 1 Category 1 Category 1 Before re lockd kdown wn During ing lockdo kdown 9 Source ce: bnef and media
Renewables remain resilient and promising outlook in long term It’s important that governments and investors treat COVID -19 19 no not as “IEA estimates total global use of renewable energy in a sign gnal al to slow ow down wn but t cataly talyst st 2020 will grow by about 1% YoY” “ Renewables have remained very resilient during Clean energy yields an the pandemic because of low operating costs, economic return 3 to 8 times higher than the preferential access as well as LCOE at grid parity” initial investment, can be included in stimulus IEA Global Energy Review 2020, 28 Apr’20 package The instability of fossil fuel prices presents a global opportunity to accelerate the shift to clean energy The continuously falling costs of clean energy 10 Sourc rce: : IEA Sourc rce: : World Resources Institute 10
Agenda Ag nda Strategic direction update Recent developments Hydropower recap Portfolio, Performance & Guidelines 11
Recent developments Lomligor Project finance enhance IRR ช่วย “Project finance LLG has been finalized with enhanced return” Construction timelines slightly shifted due to COVID-19.. But still well protected against curtailment. “Limited curtailment due to its high demand location“ Lower planned shutdown in Y2020 “ Shutd tdow own in 2020 2020 cut by half f from 2019 2019 ” 12
LLG : Project Finance with ADB, CTF and KBANK Proje oject t financ nance e enhance ance return urn Sandbox: initiative in Thailand to integrate utility-scale wind power generation with a battery energy storage system. Enhance return of the project with longer tenor and lower interest rate. 13
Projects update in Japan Upcoming coming projec jects ts have e limited mited risk k of curtailm rtailment ent on high gh demand mand region ion Total operating capacity 14.7 MW MW ppa Total developing capacity 75.0 MW MW ppa ppa ppa Regard to curtail measurement 25 25 MW MW from power purchaser, almost 90% of BCPG portfolio in Japan* got no Komagan magane impact. COD 3Q21 20 MW 20 MW Tarumizu umizu Gotemba temba Yabuki uki S11 COD 2H21 20 20 MW MW S1 Chiba a 1 No curta rtailment lment impact S19 COD 3Q21 21 10 10 MW MW Chiba a 2 Curtailment impact COD 2H22 *Including developing projects 14
Japan project developments Japan pan proje ojects cts will commence mmence to COD Komaga gane Chiba1 4 2 Yabuki uki 3 Chiba2 a2 1 Chiba iba2 Proje ject Chiba iba1 Proje ject 15
Scheduled Maintenance Shutdown Geothermal power plants in Indonesia Ac Actua ual l and forec ecast ast pla lanned ed shut utdown own in 20 2019 19 and 20 2020 20 (Revised) (Revised) (Revised) 16
Agenda Ag nda Strategic direction update Recent developments Hydropower recap Portfolio, Performance & Guidelines 17
EL Nino impact expected to remain neutral until Oct ’ 20 El Nino trends to less impact and remains neutral for 10 months until Oct’ 20 Capaci city ty factor NS NS3A Unit: t: % EL Nino impact expected to remain neutral Transitioning until Oct ’ 20 Transitioning La Nina La Nina to La Nina 70% to El Nino ▪ 2017 3A CF 56% ▪ 2018 3A CF 58% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% ▪ 2019 3A CF 45% 10% ▪ 2016 3A CF 50% El Nino 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20 20F 18
EL Nino impact expected to remain neutral until Oct ’ 20 Sea surface temperature forecast shows that the climate of tend to EL Nino impact expected to remain neutral 2020 2020 be “Neutral” and “La Nina”. This may result in better rainfall in until Oct’20 2020. Nonetheless, the transition effect from “El Nino” in 2019, which result in lower water reserved, may cause negative impact in 2020.
3A Capacity factor (%) likely to be more or less at 2019 120% 1 1Q19 19: : gain momentum of La However, due to El Nino from middle 2 Nina in 2018 cause capacity to end of 2019, rainfall drop below factor (%) to step up. usual level and continue to impact on 100% Neutra ral early of 2020. El Nino no La Nina ina 80% 2016 like kely y neutr tral (50%) %) Sourc rce: e: World Bank 60% 1 1 2017 (56 56%) %) 2018 (58 58%) %) 40% La Nina na Year 2019 (45%) %) 20% El Nino no Year 2 2 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Nam San 3A&3B Historical Performance Nam San 3A Nam San 3B Net t Capacity city Facto tor (%) Net t Capacity city Facto tor (%) Capacity factor (%) 65% Wet Year 64% 59.4% .4% 58.4% .4% 45% Dry Year 44% 56.4% .4% 50.7 .7% 50.3 .3% 51.1% .1% 49.4% .4% 44.6% .6% 2016 * 2017 2018 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019 Profit/L fit/Loss oss (THB B million ion) ) ** Profit/ fit/Loss oss (THB B milli lion) on) Revenue 701 672 EBITDA Net profit 550 550 649 649 630 630 467 405 527 527 396 394 530 505 492 492 425 425 405 384 384 356 356 353 353 338 325 277 240 243 2016 * 2017 2018 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019 21 Remarks: * 11 months of operation due to COD at 29 Jan 2016 / ** Profit and loss of Nam San 3A have been recalculate using same FX rate with Nam San 3B (as of 17 Jan 20) for comparison purpose only
Recommend
More recommend
