Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alex Deckmyn, Annelies Duerinckx, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alex Deckmyn, Annelies Duerinckx, Daan Degrauwe, Geert Smet, Julie Berckmans, Lesley De Cruz, Luc Gerard, Michiel Vanginderachter, Olivier Giot, Piet Termonia, Pieter De Meutter, Rafiq Hamdi, Rozemien De Troch, Steven Caluwaerts ALADIN Forecasters meeting 2014 September 10-11, 2014, Ankara, Turkey P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium 1 / 21

Outline How Alaro is used Pukkelpop storm Pentecost storms CAPE P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Introduction 2 / 21

How Alaro is used in Belgium Where we are now Alaro at 7 and 4 km with 46 vertical levels Coupled to Arp` ege Four runs/day: 00h, 06h, 12h, 18h Since 17 July: switch to cy38 P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 3 / 21

How Alaro is used in Belgium cy38 scores BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel 2m Rel. Hum. (%) 4 10 cy38 ● ● ald_op ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0 ● ● ● ● 0 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −4 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Forecast time since 0000 UTC Forecast time since 0000 UTC BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel 2m Temp. (°C) cy38 0.5 0.5 ald_op ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −1.5 −1.0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Forecast time since 0000 UTC Forecast time since 0000 UTC BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel 30m Wind Speed (m/s) cy38 0.2 1.5 ald_op ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −0.4 −0.5 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Forecast time since 0000 UTC Forecast time since 0000 UTC 30m Wind Dir. (degrees) BIAS−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel RMSE−August 2011: Uccle−Ukkel cy38 20 ald_op ● 20 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −60 −60 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 Forecast time since 0000 UTC Forecast time since 0000 UTC P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 4 / 21

How Alaro is used in Belgium cy38 scores ALO4 ald_op_cy35 SA score for August 2011 ALO4 cy38_esuite SA score for August 2011 2.0 2.0 ● 1.5 ● 1.5 ● ● 1.0 1.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.5 0.5 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● A ● A ● ● ● ● ● 0.0 0.0 ● ● ● ● ● ● −0.5 −0.5 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● −1.0 −1.0 ● ● −1.5 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 S S P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 5 / 21

How Alaro is used in Belgium Where we are now Alaro at 7 and 4 km with 46 vertical levels Coupled to Arp` ege Four runs/day: 00h, 06h, 12h, 18h Since 17 July: switch to cy38 Next steps Unsaturated downdrafts Data assimilation Conventional data 1 Radar 2 GNSS (GPS data) 3 P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Alaro used in Belgium 6 / 21

Pukkelpop storm Introduction 564 5 6 4 576 6 4 5 588 576 576 40°N L H 8 8 5 5 8 8 Path of downburst (from “het belang van Limburg”) ECMWF 500 hPa analysis 18 August 2011 1200 UTC Spanish plume Bow echo with bookend vortex P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pukkelpop storm 7 / 21

Unsaturated downdrafts Predicting the unpredictable ald_op Omega_DD mass flux (kg m...² s...¹) 18.08.2011 17 UTC cy36o7_tll Omega_DD mass flux (kg m...² s...¹) 18.08.2011 17 UTC 10 5 1 9.5 1 9.0 4.5 1 1 1 1 8.5 1 8.0 1 4.0 5 7.5 1 0 7.0 3.5 1 6.5 1 0 5 10 0 6.0 2 3.0 20 5 1 5.5 20 5.0 2.5 1 0 4.5 1 1 5 4.0 2.0 3.5 1 1 3.0 1.5 1 1 1 2.5 5 2.0 1.0 1.5 1 1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0 0 P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pukkelpop storm 8 / 21

9 June 2014 Introduction Airmass 1800 UTC 9 June 2014 (from Meteosat) P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 9 / 21

9 June 2014 3h Accumulated Precipitation (Alaro) be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +3h be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +6h be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +9h be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +12h 200 200 200 200 150 150 150 150 100 100 100 100 75 75 75 75 50 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 24 24 24 24 21 21 21 21 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 15 max= 6.9, mean= 0.02 max= 5.5, mean= 0.04 max= 3.4, mean= 0.04 max= 6.0, mean= 0.09 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 SURF t+0003 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC SURF t+0006 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 3 to 6 SURF t+0009 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 6 to 9 SURF t+0012 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 9 to 12 be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +15h be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +18h be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +21h be40_oper : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +24h 200 200 200 200 150 150 150 150 100 100 100 100 75 75 75 75 50 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 24 24 24 24 21 21 21 21 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 15 max=16.0, mean= 0.10 max=45.9, mean= 0.31 max=33.3, mean= 0.65 max= 9.3, mean= 0.07 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 SURF t+0015 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 12 to 15 SURF t+0018 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 15 to 18 SURF t+0021 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 18 to 21 SURF t+0024 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 21 to 24 P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 10 / 21

9 June 2014 MCC P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 11 / 21

9 June 2014 MCC Mesoscale Discussion Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 20:00 to Mon 09 Jun 2014 23:00 UTC Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 20:02 Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER / PUCIK An ongoing bow echo with a history of producing extreme severe wind gusts (>32 m/s) and likely an embedded supercell structure continues to move NEward across W Germany. 10-15 m/s low-level shear ahead of the system and low LCL heights suggest that the system will continue to harbour a risk of embedded - possibly strong - tornadoes in addition to the severe wind threat. The system will likely continue for at least several hours as the airmass ahead remains very unstable per sfc obs and NWP guidance. P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 12 / 21

9 June 2014 No convection? 5000 31 35 45 33 33 3 1 43 33 3000 1 3 41 35 5 3 2000 39 31 29 3 1 37 33 1800 29 29 31 35 25 31 1600 35 27 33 31 3 33 5 1400 31 31 25 2 27 9 9 3 23 29 1200 2 7 27 27 37 2 5 27 21 1000 3 5 25 9 9 2 3 21 23 800 1 19 9 29 3 21 2 600 19 21 21 19 1 2 400 17 19 3 7 21 15 23 19 200 CAPE (J/kg) 1400 UTC Total precipitable water content (mm) 1400 UTC P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 13 / 21

9 June 2014 No convection? 10 1 1 1 1 1 5 9 5 0.9 1 1 1 1 8 0.8 1 1 7 0.7 6 0.6 1 1 5 0.5 4 0.4 3 0.3 2 0.2 1 0.1 0 0 Sub-grid scale updraft mass flux 1400 UTC Mesh fraction sub-grid scale updraft 1400 UTC P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 14 / 21

9 June 2014 MCC be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +3h be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +6h be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +9h be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +12h 200 200 200 200 150 150 150 150 100 100 100 100 75 75 75 75 50 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 24 24 24 24 21 21 21 21 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 15 max= 6.2, mean= 0.01 max= 4.1, mean= 0.04 max= 2.2, mean= 0.04 max= 5.9, mean= 0.09 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 SURF t+0003 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC SURF t+0006 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 3 to 6 SURF t+0009 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 6 to 9 SURF t+0012 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 9 to 12 be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +15h be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +18h be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +21h be40_test : 2014/6/9 z0:0 +24h 200 200 200 200 150 150 150 150 100 100 100 100 75 75 75 75 50 50 50 50 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 27 24 24 24 24 21 21 21 21 18 18 18 18 15 15 15 15 max=26.8, mean= 0.15 max=26.0, mean= 0.27 max=25.5, mean= 0.46 max=31.5, mean= 0.56 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 SURF t+0015 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 12 to 15 SURF t+0018 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 15 to 18 SURF t+0021 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 18 to 21 SURF t+0024 PREC EAU.CON+EAU.GEC+NEI.CON+NEI.GEC, 21 to 24 P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 15 / 21

Challenges Large scale Alaro 2 None will initiate ● Risk of Thunderstorms will initiate ● thunderstorms with following properties 1 (rain rate, gusts, ...) P. De Meutter (RMI) Alaro Forecast Experience Belgium Pentecost storms 16 / 21