Overview Air travel: shame or challenge??? Dr Peter Kortbeek Manager Technology Office KIVI Symposium September 17, 2019 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Overview Content � Introduction of GKN & Fokker � The Paris treaty � The burden of air travel success � Emissions per air travel sector � Impact on future air transportation � EU Clean Sky 3 initiative � Conclusions My background: - PhD in Physics of University of Amsterdam - Fuel cells, wind energy - Switched to Fokker in 2001, established FMLC, FER, TPRC and SAM XL - Manager Technology Office since 2008 - Focus on Ecosystem, IP & Funding - EU Clean Sky 1, 2 & 3, National R&D programs - Chair HTSM Aeronautics Roadmap 2 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
GKN: Leading global tier 1 in Aerospace 2015: Fokker taken over by GKN GKN in 1759 established by Guest, Keen & Nettlefold GKN Aerospace: ~18,000 employees, including ~5,000 former Fokker Total 2018 sales £3.53 billion across three core capabilities Aerostructures Engine Systems Special Technologies 63% - £2.2bn 32% - £1.1bn 5% - £0.2bn The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
GKN Aerospace- widest capabilities of any Tier 1 WIRING INTER- AEROSTRUCTURES ENGINE SYSTEMS SPECIAL PRODUCTS LANDING GEAR GLOBAL SERVICES CONNECT SYSTEMS Fuselage, Static & Helicopter Electrical Availability Transparencies wing, rotating Landing Wiring Services, Ice protection nacelle & structures Gear Interconnecti MRO, systems pylon, on Systems Conversion Titanium Composite (EWIS) for and Light Weight Inflight engine inlet load aircraft & Completion Missile & opening parts carrying aircraft for Mature Canisters doors+ landing gear engines and Legacy empennage components aircraft (drag brace ) GLOBAL GLOBAL GLOBAL GLOBAL GLOBAL GLOBAL BRAND NO. 2 NO. 2 NO. 1 NO. 8 NO. 3 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Overview Fokker Aerostructures Lightweight aerostructures & components Design, development and production of smart, lightweight aerostructures: empennages, fuselages and wing movables 2000 Employees Locations The Netherlands, Romania, Mexico and USA The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis. 5
Overview Fokker Elmo Electrical wiring interconnections systems Design, development, manufacturing and support of Electrical Wiring Interconnection Systems (EWIS) 1700 Employees Locations The Netherlands, China, USA, Turkey, India and Canada The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis. 6
Overview Fokker Landing Gear Landing gear systems (Co-)design, Manufacturing & MRO of affordable & light weight landing gear systems for helicopters and small-to midsized aircraft 280 Employees Location The Netherlands The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis. 7
Overview Fokker Services Independent aerospace services provider The world’s most innovative aerospace service provider of affordable and reliable availability solutions to airlines, OEM’s and MRO’s 900 Employees Facilities the Netherlands, Singapore, USA Offices Australia, Kenya, Panama The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis. 8
Climate Challenges Paris Treaty: Limit Global Warming to 1.5° Input from Ron van Manen EU Clean Sky Head of Unit Strategic Development The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Global CO2 emissions 1965 - 2017 EU 2017 vs. 1990: 22% reduction in emissions* 10 * Figure excludes maritime and aviation; EU aviation emissions triples in this period…. The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Europe’s GHG Emissions Challenge (1.5° scenario) * 11 *LULUCF : Land use, land use change and forestry The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
The burden of Success: Aviation is widely expected to continue growing 12 * Courtesy Airbus: GMF 2018 - 2037 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
ATAG [IATA] goals for 2050: a long way still to go ATAG: Air Transport Action Group IATA: Int. Aviation Transport Association ICAO: Int. Civil Aviation Organization * Source ICAO ** Source IATA Year 1990 2000 2005 2017 2050 2050 ATAG Aviation CO 2 394* 540* 650** 859 2700 325 Emissions Total 21615 23803 28366 36790 4323 4323 Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (MTo) Aviation as % of 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 >60% ~7.5 13 annual CO 2 % Emissions The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Schematic of the different CO 2 reduction targets by 2050 SAF: Sustainable Aviation Fuels Only a highly ambitious technology program will lead to a significant step towards a route to target 14 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Different approaches likely to be needed 90% of flights: < 3000km, = 50% of fuel used 10% of flights: > 3000km, = 50% of fuel used 1% of flights: > 8000km, = 20% of fuel used HYDROGEN (FUEL CELLS) BIOFUELS + SYNTHETIC INTRODUCE STOP ALTERNATIVE HYBRID ADVANCED GAS- FULL ELECTRIC + BATTERIES? FUELS + HYDROGEN OVERS? BATTERIES? PROPULSION: FUEL OPERATIONS (STOP- TURBINES AND A/C (BATTERIES OR OVERS / REFUELING CELLS / BATTERIES; CONFIGURATIONS + 15 FUEL CELL ETC.) ADVANCED (E.G. SAF POWERED) DEP) CONFIGURATIONS The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Potential technology based CO 2 savings in 2050 (excl SAF) CO 2 reduction potential through technologies up to 50% 16 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Technology pathways and CO 2 reduction potential ~ 20% ~ 16% ~ 19% ~ 44% ~ 1% Fuel and CO 2 share Long Range Medium/ Medium Short Range Regional VTOL Urban Commuter/ Long Range Range Short Range Mobility Small Reg. >250 pax >250 pax <250 pax 100 - 250 pax 50 - 100 pax 19 - 50 pax 5-19 pax 1 – 4 pax >8000 km >3000 km 3000 – 8000 km <3000 km <1500 km <500 km >100 km <100 km Full Electric Propulsion 1 Hybrid Propulsion incl. Distributed Propulsion 2 Novel Engine Concepts / Ultra-Efficient Gas Turbines 3 Innovative Aircraft Configurations Ongoing Research in Flight Physics, Structures/Materials and On-board Systems Technology based 30% 30% 30% 40% 50-80% 80% 50% >80% reduction estimates 4 Sustainable Aviation Fuels Eco- / environmentally Optimised Air Transport Operations 17 >90% The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Innovation drivers have changed and need to change further Air Transport Effectiveness A350 Concorde (1969) Constellation (1943) capability driven Citius, Altius, Fortius. . . . F13 (1919) Time 2050 2025 1925 1950 1975 2000 18 18 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Clean Aviation Public-Private Partnership Under EU Horizon Europe framework � Shared & joint technology development bringing all actors together � Low TRL technology push and high TRL technology pull in one program Getting the balance right in bottom-up versus top-down � Rapidly maturing, demonstrating and de-risking disruptive architectures � Teaming with the EU brings research and policy together � impact 19 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
An EU Aeronautics Innovation Architecture Batteries Sustainable [Bio-] Fuels FCH Others Digital/ AI Factories of the Future Quantum Graphene ECSE Flagship L ‘CS3’ National Research & Innovation Structural Funds (e.g. ESIF) Programmes 20 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
New aircraft configurations Courtesy DLR Courtesy ONERA Courtesy TU Delft / NLR The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Overview Conclusions • The continuous growth of air travel may become a serious threat • Disruptive developments needed to avoid future shame for air travel • Different solutions for small SR, medium SR, MR and large aircraft SR, MR and LR • Fuel and propulsion system drive development • Huge effort to make air travel sustainable in 2050: • Airframe & engine manufacturers including supply chain • Air Traffic Management • Airport Infrastructure • Fuel suppliers • The targets can only be can only be met by strong international collaboration and by governmental support 22 The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
Overview Thank you for Your attention The information enclosed is proprietary and is provided to you on a strictly confidential basis.
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