Aging Patterns and Impending Growth in Montana’s Elderly Dr. Larry Swanson O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West The University of Montana What accounts for the uneven distribution of population across ages? How do aging patterns vary between urban and rural areas? How can this aging be expected to play out in future years? Local Government Center Webinar on Wealth Transfer Montana State University September 5, 2012
Past and Projected Future Annual Births in Montana - Actual (1945-2010) and Projected (2004-2030) Trends in Birth and Death 20,000 Counts in Montana The chart shows actual births and '57 18,000 deaths in Montana dating back to the mid-40s and up through the latest counts for 2010. Projections of births in the future are taken 16,000 from projections made by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2005. '82 Projections for deaths are made by 14,000 Swanson and are tied to estimated future populations persons 65 and '06 older. 12,000 '10 '73 The number of persons 65 and '99 '25 older is expected to roughly double '45 in size from 2005 to 2025 and this 10,000 largely accounts for the projected increase in deaths each year. '10 8,000 The record year for births in occurred in 1957 during the peak for births of current “baby 6,000 boomers” (born between 1947 and 1964). The oldest “boomer” today Actual Projected Deaths is about 64 or 65, so in each year going forward there will be 4,000 increasing numbers surpassing 65 '45 '48 '51 '54 '57 '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '26 '29 years of age. Source: Actual (MT Vital Statistics, 2011) and Projected (births, U.S. Census Bureau, March, '05; deaths: Swanson) The rise in births from the mid-‘70s In future years, birth rates will fall the most in areas with declining and more quickly to mid-‘ 80s are kids of boomers aging populations. These areas will also have faster rising death rates. (Echo). And the more recent rise are the kids of the kids of boomers
Population Montana's Populaton by Single Age, Youngest-to-Oldest, 2000 vs. 2010 Aging in 24,000 Montana 2000 2010 85+ 18,000 The top chart below 52 shows the population of 42 15 Montana at the time of 25 the 2000 and 2010 12,000 Censuses arrayed by the number of persons at each age, from youngest to oldest. The state’s 6,000 overall population grew from 902,195 to 989,415 during this period; an increase 87,220 or 9.7%. 0 Growth the previous 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 Source: U.S. Population Censuses decade of the ‘90s was 12.8% and growth Montana Population Change by Single Age, 1990-2000 & 2000-2010 8,000 projected for 2010 to 2020 is around 8% 48 58 (Swanson, Apr., 2012). 6,000 85+ Growth is slowing in part because the 4,000 17 27 population is aging and 3 this can be seen below. 2,000 The lower chart then looks at change in 0 population by age. 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 -2,000 '90-'00 '00-'10 -4,000 -6,000
Montana Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 Projected Shifts in 7,500 the Population of Montana by Age 5,000 The upper chart shows how population changed in Montana by single age from 2,500 youngest to oldest between 1990 and 2000. The lower 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 chart shows how population 0 2 4 6 8 0 is projected to change by the U.S. Census Bureau (March, 2005, projections) between 2000 and 2010. -2,500 The growth in population that was concentrated among -5,000 persons between their early 40s and late 50s in the ‘90s is Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2000 to 2010 projected to be concentrated 7,500 between persons in their early 50s to late 60s in the current decade. 5,000 The echo population also will continue to age, shifting 2,500 growth to persons between their early 20s and mid-30s. 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 And during the current 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 0 2 4 6 8 0 decade the “echo-echo” population will come into being, reflected in the recent -2,500 increase in births. -5,000
Projected Popu- Montana Projected Pop. Change by Age: 2010 to 2020 lation Growth by 7,500 Age in the Next Decade – 2010 to 2020 5,000 The chart at the right shows how Montana’s population is projected to change by age between 2010 and 2020. During 2,500 the next decade growth in the state’s population will shift to persons in their early 60s to late 70s and 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 Montana is in fact 0 projected to have one of the largest populations 65 and older as a percent of its total by 2020. -2,500 The echo group or the children of boomers is shown in growth among persons from their early 30s to mid 40s. However, -5,000 this echo group is projected by the Census As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself in Bureau to be much ripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor. smaller than the boomer This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniors group. In turn, the “echo- and health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number of echo” group is projected persons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well as to be much smaller than for high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in size the echo group. in the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are not enough persons entering the workforce to replace them.
Future Population Projected Montana Population by Age Group 280,000 Change in Montana 260,000 by Age Group 247,769 240,000 Projected aging of Montana’s 220,000 215,351 215,516 population over the next 20 years can be viewed by examining how 200,000 192,115 the population is expected to 191,309 change by age grouping. The upper 180,000 chart shows the population under 160,909 160,000 18 (high school and younger), the population 18 to 33 (young post- 140,000 high school adults and those at 129,243 ages of family formation and 120,000 0-17 18-33 34-49 50-64 65+ childrearing), the population 34 to 100,000 49 (young and middle-age adults), '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 the population 50 to 64 (older adults Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 at pre-retirement ages), and the population 65 and older. Projected Percent Pop. Change by Age Grouping, Montana 60% The older adult working age 49% population between 50 and 64, 46% 50% which saw massive growth in the 39% ‘90s will also see very high growth 40% in the current period before 27% 0-17 beginning a decline. And the 65 30% and older population, which grew 22% 18-33 20% by only 13% in the ‘90s, will grow by 20% 34-49 13% 20%, 46%, and 27% in the 10% 9% 50-64 10% subsequent three decades. 3% 3% 65+ 0% 0% As a result of these age shifts, -1% '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 Montana will have one of the largest -4% -4% -5% -10% -8% -8% populations over 65 of any state in -13% -14% the country in future years. -20%
Regional Patterns of Population Aging in the U.S. – 65 and Over Population as a share of the total The 65 and older population in Montana was 13.3% of the total in 1990, 13.4% in 2000, and 14.8% in 2010. By 2020 this will rise to 20% and to nearly 24% by 2025. Some areas are growing older more rapidly and this aging process will accelerate over the next 20 years as more and more “boomers” move past 65 years of age. Population aging will slow the growth in the labor force. [Note: data used in the maps are from the 1990 and 2010 Population Censuses]
Area Population Distribution in Montana and the Larger Region: 2010 This map shows population mapped at the Census “block” level using 2010 Census data. In 2010 approximately 78% of Montanans lived within 50 miles of the state’s seven largest cities or urban centers, up from 73% in 2000. Going forward, population growth will continue to concentrated near these centers and economic and employment growth in Montana will be increasingly “urban in character.”
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