NC Department of Health and Human Services Aging in North Carolina Division of Aging and Adult Services January 2020 NCDHHS, Division | Presentation Title | Presentation Date 1 NCDHHS, Division | Presentation Title | Presentation Date 1
NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Where does North Carolina stand nationally ? Total population 9th Population age 60 and over 9th 10th Population age 85 and over Source: American Community Survey 201 8 , one year estimate. Table B01001: Sex by Age NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Effective 2019, the state has more people 60+ than ages 0-17 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Total population 2,500,000 2,000,000 Population age 60 and over 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 Population age 85 and over - 2019 2025 2038 0-17 60+ Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 4 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Population 65 and over will increase in the coming decades Population 65 and over is on the rise 3,000,000 • It is projected that by 2038, 21% 2,500,000 of the total population will be 65 2,000,000 and older (one in five people will be 65 and older). 1,500,000 1,000,000 • Population 85+ will be the fastest growing age group in the next two 500,000 decades (114%). - 2018 2025 2038 Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 5 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Projected NC’s Population 2018 -2038 The proportion of the population 85 and over is projected to have the fastest growth in the next two decades Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 6 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Projected growth of population 65+ by age group between 2018-2038 114% 94% 35% * As a % of age group 65-74 75-84 85+ As the population 85 and over age the prevalence of functional limitations, frailty, and chronic diseases increase creating significant impact on long-term supports and services Source: NC Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections 2018, 2038 7 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Number of counties with more people 60 and over than ages 0-17 will increase 95 80 20 5 2018 2038 Counties with more 0-17 than 60+ Counties with more 60+ than 0-17 By 2025, 88 counties will have more people 60 and over than age under 18 Source: NC Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 8 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Counties with more people age 60 and over than 0-17, 2018 Pasquotank Currituck Camden Alleghany Northampton Ashe Surry Stokes Hertford Gates Vance Warren Rockingham Caswell Person Halifax Granville Watauga Wilkes Perquimans Yadkin Forsyth Durham Franklin Chowan Mitchell Avery Guilford Bertie Alamance Orange Edgecombe Nash Caldwell Davie Yancey Alexander Martin Tyrrell Madison Washington Iredell Wake Dare Davidson Burke Wilson Randolph Chatham Catawba Rowan Buncombe McDowell Pitt Beaufort Haywood Lincoln Johnston Greene Hyde Swain Lee Rutherford Cabarrus Henderson Graham Harnett Wayne Moore Gaston Stanly Jackson Polk Cleveland Montgomery Lenoir Mecklenburg Macon Transylvania Cherokee Pamlico Jones Cumberland Clay Hoke Richmond Sampson Union Anson Duplin Scotland Carteret Onslow Robeson Bladen Pender New Columbus Hanover Brunswick 80 Counties with more people age 60+ than 0-17 20 Counties with more people age 0-17 than 60+ Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Counties with more people age 60 and over than 0-17, 2038 Pasquotank Currituck Camden Alleghany Ashe Surry Northampton Stokes Warren Rockingham Caswell Person Gates Vance Hertford Watauga Wilkes Halifax Granville Perquimans Yadkin Forsyth Franklin Mitchell Avery Guilford Chowan Alamance Orange Bertie Nash Caldwell Durham Davie Yancey Alexander Madison Edgecombe Iredell Wake Martin Davidson Washington Burke Randolph Chatham Catawba Tyrrell Dare Wilson Rowan Buncombe McDowell Pitt Beaufort Haywood Johnston Swain Lee Greene Rutherford Lincoln Hyde Cabarrus Henderson Graham Harnett Wayne Moore Gaston Stanly Jackson Polk Cleveland Montgomery Lenoir Mecklenburg Macon Transylvania Craven Cherokee Cumberland Pamlico Clay Hoke Richmond Sampson Jones Union Anson Duplin Scotland Onslow Carteret Robeson Bladen Pender New Columbus Hanover Brunswick 95 Counties with more people age 60+ than 0-17 5 Counties with more people age 0-17 than 60+ Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Percent of population 65 and over, 2018 Pasquotank Currituck Camden Alleghany Ashe Surry Northampton Stokes Warren Rockingham Caswell Person Gates Vance Hertford Watauga Wilkes Halifax Granville Perquimans Yadkin Forsyth Franklin Mitchell Avery Guilford Chowan Alamance Orange Bertie Nash Caldwell Durham Davie Yancey Alexander Madison Edgecombe Iredell Wake Martin Davidson Washington Burke Randolph Chatham Catawba Tyrrell Dare Wilson Rowan Buncombe McDowell Pitt Beaufort Haywood Johnston Swain Lee Greene Rutherford Lincoln Hyde Cabarrus Henderson Graham Harnett Wayne Moore Gaston Stanly Jackson Polk Cleveland Montgomery Lenoir Mecklenburg Macon Transylvania Craven Cherokee Cumberland Pamlico Clay Hoke Richmond Sampson Jones Union Anson Duplin Scotland Onslow Carteret Robeson Bladen Pender New Columbus Hanover Brunswick 31% or more 21% to 30% Proportion of 65 and over in the state is 16% 11% to 20% Less than 10% Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Percent of population 65 and over, 2038 Pasquotank Currituck Camden Alleghany Ashe Surry Northampton Stokes Warren Rockingham Caswell Person Gates Vance Hertford Watauga Wilkes Halifax Granville Perquimans Yadkin Forsyth Franklin Mitchell Avery Guilford Chowan Alamance Orange Bertie Nash Caldwell Durham Davie Yancey Alexander Madison Edgecombe Iredell Wake Martin Davidson Washington Burke Randolph Chatham Catawba Tyrrell Dare Wilson Rowan Buncombe McDowell Pitt Beaufort Haywood Johnston Swain Lee Greene Rutherford Lincoln Hyde Cabarrus Henderson Graham Harnett Wayne Moore Gaston Stanly Jackson Polk Cleveland Montgomery Lenoir Mecklenburg Macon Transylvania Craven Cherokee Cumberland Pamlico Clay Hoke Richmond Sampson Jones Union Anson Duplin Scotland Onslow Carteret Robeson Bladen Pender New Columbus Hanover Brunswick 31% or more 21% to 30% Proportion of 65 and over in the state is 21% 11% to 20% Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Percent of population 65 and over 2018 2038 31% or more 21% to 30% 11% to 20% Less than 10% *As a % of total population Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 13 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
Projected change in population 65 and over (2018 to 2038) Pasquotank Currituck Camden Alleghany Ashe Surry Northampton Stokes Warren Rockingham Caswell Person Gates Vance Hertford Watauga Wilkes Halifax Granville Perquimans Yadkin Forsyth Franklin Mitchell Avery Guilford Chowan Alamance Orange Bertie Nash Caldwell Durham Davie Yancey Alexander Madison Edgecombe Iredell Wake Martin Davidson Washington Burke Randolph Chatham Catawba Tyrrell Dare Wilson Rowan Buncombe McDowell Pitt Beaufort Haywood Johnston Swain Lee Greene Rutherford Lincoln Hyde Cabarrus Henderson Graham Harnett Wayne Moore Gaston Stanly Jackson Polk Cleveland Montgomery Lenoir Mecklenburg Macon Transylvania Craven Cherokee Cumberland Pamlico Clay Hoke Richmond Sampson Jones Union Anson Duplin Scotland Onslow Carteret Robeson Bladen Pender New Columbus Hanover Brunswick 100% to 137% increase 50% to 99% increase 1% to 49% increase Projected change for the state is 61% - 4% to -17% decrease Source: NC State Office of State Budget and Management/ facts-figures, Certified county estimates and projections, 2018, 2038 NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF AGING AND ADULT SERVICES JAN, 2020
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