AGENDA Problem Statement & Background ● ● Provincial Analysis Regional Analysis ● ● Framing the Options Aggressive Opposition ○ ○ Oppose and Negotiate ○ Moderate Opposition & Community-Based Economic Development (Recommended) ● Benefits, Risks, Implementation, and Communications MLA Briefing Strategy ● ● Summary
1 GOVERNMENT COMMITMENTS “Employ every tool “Take every available “Pronteau Oil’s Plateau available to defend immediate measure to Pipeline is not in the BC’s interests in the halt the Plateau best interests of our face of the expansion Pipeline Project economy or our society” of the Plateau Pipeline” expansion” Premier Jordan Hahn Confidence & Supply Minister of Environment Agreement Mandate Letter
2 PROBLEM STATEMENT While protecting British Columbia’s provincial and regional interests, how can the government proceed with pipeline policy implementation given its stated opposition to the Plateau Pipeline Project (“P3”)?
3 A DELICATE BALANCE POLICY IMPACTS EFFECTIVENESS ______________ IN STOPPING STRATEGIC PIPELINE IMPACTS PROVINCIAL CONSTRUCTION & REGIONAL
4 PLATEAU PIPELINE PROJECT 3 2 X RD Adds a third pipe Doubles capacity P3 transports to an existing The federal of pipelines from diluted bitumen dual-line pipeline government 500,000 to (unrefined) from that runs 1,200 cancelled the 1,000,000 barrels Alberta to the BC km from Great Bear Line per day coast Edmonton to Burnaby
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6 P3 TIMELINE 2018 2016 2017 2012 2013 Previous BC Pronteau Oil Federal NEB sets out BC issues government applies to government expedited environmental outlines 5 National Energy approves P3 dispute process assessment conditions for Board (NEB) for for permits (EA) certificate pipeline federal project approval approval of P3 Detailed route Detailed route BC election approval hearings process begins planned to begin in BC
7 JURISDICTION Federal Authority Provincial Authority ● Environment ● Environment ● Interprovincial “Works and Undertakings” ● Municipal authority derived from province Conflict Provincial law is inoperative if it conflicts with federal law and it cannot impair the core of federal jurisdiction “While the federal law says ‘yes with conditions’, the provincial law … could also say ‘ yes, with further conditions’ ” SOURCE: Coastal First Nations v British Columbia (Environment) , 2016 BCSC 34
8 ONGOING PROCESS ● Federal Project Approval ○ Environmental groups are challenging NEB recommendation and federal project approval ○ Potential for challenge to provincial EA certificate ● Proponent in midst of Detailed Route Approval Process following federal project approval ○ Proponent proposes best possible route for P3 to NEB ○ Following NEB approval, proponent can begin construction after obtaining land rights ● Permit-issuing provincial authorities ○ Oil and Gas Commission ○ Ministry of Transportation & Infrastructure ○ Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development ○ Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy ● Municipalities issue permits related to buildings, construction, and excavation ○ Burnaby has repeatedly attempted to frustrate P3 implementation through its bylaws
9 INDIGENOUS CONSULTATION If the federal or provincial government has knowledge of the existence or Consolidated potential existence of an Aboriginal right, it has a duty to consult and Challenge at Federal accommodate before adversely impacting the right Court of Appeal cc The scope of the duty is proportionate to the strength of the right and the Tsleil-Waututh Nation seriousness of the potential adverse impact Musqueam Indian Band SOURCE: Haida Nation v British Columbia (Minister of Forests) , 2004 SCC 73 Upper Nicola Band CONSULTATION STATUS: Court challenges of federal project approval are ongoing ● Squamish Nation NEB & Federal/Provincial report found proponent consulted adequately ● Coldwater Indian Band 41 First Nations in BC have signed agreements with the proponent ● Stk’emlupsemc Te Secwepemc Nation Governments have committed to fully adopt and implement the United ● Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) Aitchelitz Indian Band
10 PATHWAYS AND TOOLS PATHWAYS TO STOP P3 “Faced with unreasonable regulatory The Government of Canada withdraws its support for P3 ● risks… it may become untenable for Pronteau shareholders… to proceed.” ● BC imposes legal restrictions that effectively stop P3 - Pronteau NEB Filing The proponent withdraws the P3 proposal ● POLICY TOOLBOX The total cost spent by ● Legal: The Province can increase costs and uncertainty for Pronteau thus far is the proponent by withholding permits, creating additional $930M legislation/regulation, and intervening in court challenges ● Communication: The Province can rally public opposition and increase the risk of disruption for the proponent The monthly cost delay for ● Regional: The Province can support local opponents to the Pronteau is estimated at pipeline, e.g. provide assistance for route hearings $75M
11 PROVINCIAL ANALYSIS TITLE
12 P3 BENEFITS HIGH RANGE + LOW RANGE HIGH RANGE DOWNSTREAM + BENEFITS (SFU 2014) (Conf Board Canada 2014) FEDERAL (Conf Board Canada 2015) Construction $180 million $309 million $394 million **ONE TIME** BC Gov Rev $35 million $47 million $280 million Clean Futures Fund $125 million $125 million $125 million Municipal Property Tax $23.2 million $25 million $25 million BC Annual Benefit $183.2 million $ 197 million $430 million
13 QUANTIFIABLE SPILL RISKS Total cost $103 million - $5,000 million Marine spill: Up to $1,300 million (from federal/international fund) Liability reduction Land spill: Total (proponent bears unlimited liability for all costs) Chance of marine spill Up to 48.3% over 30 years
14 UNQUANTIFIABLE SPILL RISKS CLIMATE CHANGE Increased upstream and downstream GHG emissions INDIGENOUS Negative impact on reconciliation ECOSYSTEMS Negative impact on ecosystems and species-at-risk HEALTH Negative human health impacts associated with a spill Negative impacts on tourism associated with a spill TOURISM
15 RISK OF NOT RESPONDING BC may benefit only marginally BC bears significant unquantifiable risk The potential risk of P3 outweighs potential reward
16 REGIONAL ANALYSIS TITLE
17 REGIONAL CONTEXT ● Communities stand to benefit economically from community benefit agreements, construction spending, and property taxes Public opposition is concentrated on environmental risk of (marine) ● spills and tanker traffic Level of opposition in Indigenous communities varies ● ● Significant split in public opinion on P3 with detailed route hearings upcoming Risks of not responding at regional level: community division, ● continued boom-and-bust regional economies, non-maximized community benefits, provincial and regional misalignment
18 EXAMPLE: KAMLOOPS ● Increasing challenges to conventional resource-based economy Threats to jobs from technology and automation ○ Increasing concern for environment, Indigenous rights ○ (e.g. cancellation of Ajax mine in December 2017) ● Higher unemployment rate than provincial and national rates: 7.2% rate vs 4.8% rate for BC, 5.2% rate for Canada ● P3 in Kamloops: proposed upgrades to pump station, route diversion through Lac du Bois Grasslands
19 P3 PROPOSAL IN KAMLOOPS COMMUNITY BENEFITS RISKS TO COMMUNITY ● Short-term spending does not diversify economy ● $750,000 signing bonus ● Division in community ● $745,000 (city estimate) to $4M ● Threats to reconciliation: (proponent estimate) in tax revenues Stk’emlupsemc Te Secwepemc Nation opposes ● $500M in construction spending Concerns about impact of construction ● on housing, tourism Benefits from pipeline will be attractive to community, but community cohesion and economic diversification are important for the long-term
20 REGIONAL GOALS ____________ INDIGENOUS PEOPLE ____________ COMMUNITY ENVIRONMENT INDIGENOUS ECONOMIC COHESION Develop strategies Stop pipeline or, if Facilitate local to increase P3 proceeds, reconciliation; Help community resilience in mitigate negative address tensions progress in a regional environmental between Indigenous unified way economies impacts of and non-Indigenous construction or spill people
21 PLACEHOLDER “SETTING UP THE DECISION”
22 KEY CONSIDERATIONS POLICY IMPACTS EFFECTIVENESS IN ______________ STRATEGIC STOPPING PIPELINE IMPACTS CONSTRUCTION PROVINCIAL & REGIONAL Likelihood Economic Development Intergovernmental Environmental Public Legitimacy Indigenous Confidence & Supply Community Cohesion
23 OPTIONS OVERVIEW 1 2 3 MODERATE OPPOSE & AGGRESSIVE OPPOSITION NEGOTIATE OPPOSITION & COMMUNITY-BASED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT **RECOMMENDED**
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