Age of children leaving home in São Paulo State, Brazil: tendencies, sex and race differences from 1991 to 2010. Tirza Aidar 1 ; Elizabete Dória Bilac 1 ; Gustavo Brusse 1 ; Zhenglian Wang 2 ; Yi Zeng 3 ; Joice Melo Vieira 1 Introduction : At least, since thirty years ago, it is being possible to follow systematically, either by the Demographic Censuses or by the large sample surveys, like the PNADs, some of the deepest changes that Brazilian families have been passing through. Several researches have been produced on such transformations, involving both structural and organizational dimensions. Through these studies, a general picture, quite instigating, of transformations of the Brazilian families is configured. This bibliography points out to multiple aspects of change: the impressive drop in fertility, which rapidly reduces the young-age-dependency ratio and, together with the constant decrease in mortality over the last twenty years, results in a process of population aging; the changes of timing in the markers of the different phases of the life course; the transformations in gender relations, the greater visibility of homosexual unions; the increase of consensual unions and divorces in the last decades, pari passu the increase of formal marriage rate due to remarriage of the divorced and collective wedding promoted by public services and churches. Such demographic changes occur in a context of broader economic, social and cultural transformations of Brazilian society, historically marked by deep inequalities. These transformations have been changing the size, composition, and organization of Brazilian households, which, over the last decades, have shown a continuous reduction in size and increasing diversity in all over the different country regions (BILAC, 2014) According to the Demographic Censuses, from 1980 to 2010, the distribution of households in the State of São Paulo presents significant reduction of "conventional" leaving arrangements, such as "couple with children" (the classical nuclear family). At the same time, it has increased arrangements with only one parent and kids, with or without other relatives, households composed only by the couple and those of just one individual. The postponement of the union formation, divorces and separations contribute to the growth of the monoparentality and one-person households, which also reveal the effects of increased longevity. The households with children suffer a relative reduction of 15.0% in their occurrence, from 1980 to 2010. Surely the aspects involved in such changes are multiple, but it is important to emphasize the relevance of fertility decline, which not only reduces the size of households by decreasing offspring, but could also hasten the arrival of the "empty nest" phase, since the children are few. However, at the same time the number of resident children with one or both 1 Univerty of Campinas, Brazil. 2 China Population and Development Research Center and Digit China. 3 Peking University and Duke University.
parents is reduced, recent survey (PNAD 2015) points an increase in the proportion of Brazilians from 25 to 34 years of age who still live in their parents' homes: from 21.7% in 2005 to 25.3% in 2015. They are so-called "kangaroo generation" and 60.2% of which are men. Therefore, there are strong indications that the number of children is small, but they stay longer with the family of origin. Leaving the parents' home is an important marker of a critical moment of the life course – the transition to adulthood ( MODELL et al., 1976; GOLDSCHEIDER; DAVANZO, 1986; SETTERSTEN, 2008; VIEIRA, 2009) – , but also of family life cycle. Transitions in the life course and in the family life cycle, however, are clearly changing in Brazilian society and it becomes important to understand these processes. If in the past leaving the parent’s home was signal of autonomy, now a model of intergenerational solidarity less authoritarian can be conciliated with an ideal of interdependence in a multigenerational household. The life cycle is an important approach to understand the family dynamics and how households contract or expand throughout the family life, also for the analysis of the reduction of their average size and, at the same time, the increase in their number. (ZENG et al., 2014). The main objective of this paper is identifying and analyzing social factors involved in the age of children leaving their parents’ home, as well as the changes of it, if any, in a county of Brazil whose population has experienced in the last forty years the passage of a fairly rejuvenated age structure to another with a large contingent of young and young adults people. It is precisely this group, which has greater longevity than their parents’ generations, that is the principal agent of fertility and nuptiality changes, and who faces transformations in the labor market, educational and housing opportunities, in a context of persistent social inequalities. The aim questions are: 1. Is there difference in mean age of leaving parental home (MALPH) by sex and race? The Brazilian literature has shown important sex differences: women presented younger ages of leaving parental home. In a view of the prolonged schooling of the Brazilian population, especially by women, have sex differentials changed? 2. Are differences by race in MALPH persistent from 1991 to 2010? 3. Are the race differences constant if we control education effects? Materials e Method : The demographic variables considered are sex, race and education. In Brazilian society the last two are important discriminating factors of our deep differences in living conditions (CUNHA et al., 2013). The information was based on 1991, 2000 and 2010 Census. In a first section, it is presented the sex and race estimations of the age- specific net rate s of leaving the parental home, done by the iterative intracohort interpolation’s method , using the software Profamy (ZENG et al., 2014). The was initially presented by Coale (1984) to estimate life tables between two censuses and to estimate age-specific fertility rates using data
on parity between two censuses (COALE et al., 1985). Subsequently, Stupp (1988) proposes modifications to calculate single-year-age specific rates of demographic events in the intercensal period through tabulations made with only two points in time (STUPP, 1988). Zeng et al. (1994) argue that the method is also satisfactory when estimating standard schedules of the age-sex-speci fi c net rates of leaving home, defined as the difference between the number of persons who leave the parental home at age x and the number of persons who return to the parental home at age x, divided by the total number of x-year-old persons (ZENG et al., 2014). However, as there is no census information about the return to the parents' home, only the number of persons who leave the parental home is considered (ZENG et al., 1994). Thus, information on the proportion of people who are considered children and are living in the same household of some adult is required, considering "child" also the individuals classified as "grandchild", "great- grandchild", "stepchild", “son -in- law” and “daugh ter-in- law”. (ZENG et al ., 1994). A subsequent analysis take in account indicators about living arrangement, education, and work activities for kids and young people from 10 to 29 years old. The information used was from the last demographic census, in 2010. The variable and respective categorizations are presented below. Sex : Men and Women Age : Single age (5 to 49 years old) or Age Groups : 10-14; 15-19; 20-24 and 25-29. Race : White or Asian (WA); Black, Brown or Indigenous (BBI). Education : Less than primary completed (Very Low); Primary completed (Low); Secondary completed (Median); or University completed (High). Activities : Not in education, employment or training (NEETS); Student only (Student); Worker only (Worker); Student and worker (Student&Worker). younger sibling Living arrangements : The head of household is a parent or another older relative (Not autonomous or Dependent). The young (15 to 29 years old) is the household head or his/her spouse, or life partner (Autonomous or Independent). The analysis do not considering institutional population, which represents 1,2% of men from 10 to 29 years old, and 0,7% of woman at same age. Results The State of São Paulo (SP), is one of the greatest economic development and advanced stage in the process of demographic transition in Brazil. Despite the strong and steady decrease in total fertility rates, from 3.4 to 1.7 children per woman from 1980 to 2010, its population grew from 25 million to 41 million inhabitants, corresponding for about 20% of the Brazilian population. The infant mortality rate also showed a significant reduction, from 50.9 to 10.7 deaths per thousand live births, while life expectancy at birth increases by 6.5 years from 1991 to 2010, when it reaches 75.0 years. As a result of this dynamic, the Aging Index
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