AFRICA TO 2030 AND BEYOND African Futures Project December 9, 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

AFRICA TO 2030 AND BEYOND African Futures Project December 9, 2016 @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs 1

PREVIOUS SDG PAPERS FROM THE ISS African Futures Project, Institute for Security Studies & Frederick S. Pardee Center for @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs International Futures 2

INTERNATIONAL FUTURES IS A TOOL FOR… Exploring past trends, and the path we’re currently on Understanding how human, social, and environmental systems interact over time Shaping the way we think about and address major issues facing human development today 24/10/16 3 3

SUB-MODULES IN IFS International Governance Finance Politics Education Demographics Health Infrastructure Economics Energy Agriculture Technology Environment 24/10/16 4 4

IFS MAJOR SUB-MODULES 5

INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) 6

THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development ‘…a plan of action for people, planet and prosperity’ Source: UN General Assembly, Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 2015, @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs Resolution 70/1, New York: UN General Assembly, 25 September 2015. 7 Image source:

DEFINING EXTREME POVERTY “A condition of life so characterised by malnutrition, illiteracy and disease as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency . ” World Bank 8

GLOBAL POVERTY FORECAST 45 40 Percentage of the population 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 9

GLOBAL POVERTY: HISTORY AND FORECAST 3 2,5 2 Billions of people 1,5 1 0,5 0 Africa Rest of World 10

GLOBAL POVERTY FORECAST 1000 900 800 700 Millions of people 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Africa Rest of World Source: IFs v 7.26 initialized from World Bank data 11

COUNTRY GROUPS BASED ON POVERTY LEVELS IN 2016 The majority of poverty is isolated in • high poverty countries So, what is driving this increase in • the absolute numbers of people living below the poverty line in Africa…. 12

GLOBAL POPULATION BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST 9 Sub-Saharan Africa’s population has 8 grown from 8% of the global total in 1960, to l3.5% today and is forecast to grow to 7 17% by 2030 6 Billions of people 5 4 3 2 1 0 Asia Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA North America Sub-Saharan Africa 13

WASH Indicators 14

WASH & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SDG 6 – Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Target 6.1 - By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all Target 6.2 - By 2030, achieve access to adequate and equitable sanitation and hygiene for all and end open defecation, paying special attention to the needs of women and girls and those in vulnerable situations Source: UN General Assembly, Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 2015, @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs Resolution 70/1, New York: UN General Assembly, 25 September 2015. 15

ACCESS TO IMPROVED DRINKING WATER BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST 100 Percentage access to clean water 90 80 70 60 50 40 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 16

ACCESS TO IMPROVED SANITATION BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST Percentage access to improved sanitation facilities 95 85 75 65 55 45 35 25 15 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 17

Health Indicators 18

HEALTH GOALS OF SDGS SDG 3 – ‘Ensure healthy lives and promote well- being for all at all ages’ Target 3.3 - By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and neglected tropical diseases and combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases and other communicable diseases Target 3.4 - By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being Source: UN General Assembly, Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development 2015, @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs Resolution 70/1, New York: UN General Assembly, 25 September 2015. 19

COMMUNICABLE DISEASE DEATH RATES BY REGION 7 6 5 Deaths per thousand 4 3 2 1 0 Sub-Saharan South Asia MENA Latin America & East Asia & Europe & Central Africa Caribbean Pacific Asia 2015 2030 20

BREAKDOWN OF AIDS DEATHS BY REGION IN 2016 East Asia & Pacific 14% Europe & Central Asia 10% Sub-Saharan Latin America & Caribbean Africa 4% 67% MENA 1% North America 2% South Asia 2% 21

BREAKDOWN OF MALARIA DEATHS BY REGION IN 2016 East Asia & Pacific Latin America & 3% Caribbean 0% MENA South Asia 0% 4% Europe and North Sub-Saharan America were Africa 93% excluded from this visual 22

HEALTH TARGETS: CURRENT PATH The Current Path scenario reveals that only a handful of countries are forecast to achieve SDG 3.3 …While no African country is forecast to reach SDG 3.4 @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs 23

LIFE EXPECTANCY BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 24

Governance 25

GOVERNANCE TRIANGLE East Asia & Pacific 1 0,8 0,6 Sub-Saharan Africa Europe & Central Asia 0,4 0,2 0 South Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA Security Capacity Inclusion 26

GOVERNANCE BY REGION: HISTORY AND FORECAST 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean MENA North America South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 27

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP PER CAPITA AND EFFECTIVE GOVERNANCE 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 y = 0,6743ln(x) + 0,9435 0,5 R ² = 0,66795 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 28

Scenarios 29

SCENARIOS • Without significant interventions, many of the SDG targets are out of reach for all but a few African countries • However, if Africa is able to implement policies capably, it can expect substantial benefits to human development… • To explore those potential benefits, we developed scenarios for these papers that analyze the impact on Africa’s future of achieving certain SDG targets 30

FINDINGS Achieving universal WASH access will cost more than US$ 120 billion, but will increase overall • GDP in Africa by more than US$ 500 billion by 2030 and provides other significant benefits, notably in health outcomes However, even a less aggressive push for WASH could yield about 50% of the benefits for • about 30% of the cost Eliminating communicable diseases increases life expectancy by 11 years, and adds more than • 230 million working years to Africa’s future by 2030 However, eliminating communicable diseases accelerates the transition to non- • communicable diseases and could leave Africa health systems unprepared for a shifting burden of disease In terms of poverty reduction however, improving governance has the most significant effects • This scenario lifts more than 60 million people out of poverty by 2050, compared to • approximately 40 million in the Improved Sanitation scenario and about 16 million in the Communicable Diseases scenario 31

REDUCTION IN POVERTY BY SCENARIO 600 580 560 540 Millions of people 520 500 480 460 440 420 400 Current Path Communicable Diseases Universal Sanitation Unlocking the Future 32

CONCLUSION Africa currently experience some of the lowest levels of access to basic services of any • region on the globe Advancing progress on the whole suite of SDG targets will require a sustained and well- • coordinated effort To do this successfully we should focus on three main questions: • Where are now we and how did we get here? • Based on those historical trends, where do we think we are going? • And finally, where do we want to go and how do we get there? • IFs can help us answer these questions and explore policy options to achieve a more • desirable future 33

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AFRICA TO 2030 AND BEYOND African Futures Project December 9, 2016 @ISSAfrica @PardeeCenterIFs 35

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