Advanced Electric Generating Advanced Electric Generating Advanced - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Advanced Electric Generating Advanced Electric Generating Advanced Electric Generating Technologies in a Computable General Technologies in a Computable General Technologies in a Computable General Equilibrium Model Equilibrium Model Equilibrium Model Ron Sands Ron Sands Ron Sands Joint Global Change Research Institute Joint Global Change Research Institute Joint Global Change Research Institute Battelle – – PNNL PNNL – – University of Maryland University of Maryland Battelle Battelle – PNNL – University of Maryland Presented at: Presented at: Presented at: th AIM International Workshop The 8 th AIM International Workshop The 8 th AIM International Workshop The 8 Tsukuba, Japan Tsukuba, Japan Tsukuba, Japan 13- -15 March 2003 15 March 2003 13 13-15 March 2003

Overview Overview Overview Why change model framework? � Work with sector specialists � Need for modularity suggests object-oriented framework SGM review Class diagrams Example: Electricity Generation � Advanced technologies � Engineering cost model � Generation without carbon capture and carbon prices at {$0, $100, $200} � Generation with carbon capture and carbon prices at {$0, $100, $200, $300} Modeling activities 2

Second Generation Model Second Generation Model Second Generation Model Collection of computable-general-equilibrium (CGE) models for 14 world regions Five-year time steps from 1990 through 2050 Capital stocks are industry-specific with a new vintage for each model time step 3

SGM Regions SGM Regions SGM Regions Annex I Non Annex I � United States � China � Canada � India � Western Europe � Brazil � Japan � Middle East � Australia � Mexico � Former Soviet Union � South Korea � Eastern Europe � Rest of World 4

Production Sectors in SGM Production Sectors in SGM Production Sectors in SGM 1 agriculture 2 everything else (including services) 3 crude oil production 4 natural gas production 5 coal production 6 coke 7 electricity generation 8 oil refining 9 distributed gas 10 paper and pulp 11 chemicals 12 non-metallic minerals 13 primary metals 14 food processing 15 other industry and construction (including other mining) 16 rail and land transport 17 other transport 5

Class Diagram: Sector Level and Above Region nameRegion operateSector(all Sectors) 1 1 * 1 SectorGeneric SectorElectricity nameRegion nameRegion nameSector nameSector getUnitCost(all Technologies) getUnitCost(all Technologies) calcTechnologyShares calcTechnologyShares operateTechnology(all Technologies) operateTechnology(all Technologies) calcUnitCostAverage calcUnitCostAverage 6

Class Diagram: Sector Level and Below SectorElectricity nameRegion nameSector getUnitCost(all Technologies) calcTechnologyShares operateTechnology(all Technologies) calcUnitCostAverage 1 1..* Technology nameRegion nameSector nameTechnology operateVintageNew operateVintageOld(all VintageOld) 1 1 1 * VintageNew VintageOld nameRegion nameRegion nameSector nameSector nameTechnology nameTechnology idVintage idVintage techCoefficients techCoefficients capitalStock calcUnitCost(prices) calcInputDemands(output,prices) calcOutput(capitalStock) calcInputDemands(output,prices) 7

Electricity Sector Electricity Sector Electricity Sector All production sectors other than electricity represented by CES production function Each electric generating technology represented by fixed- coefficient production function Electricity sector uses a nested logit structure to allocate new investment to generating technologies electricity from fossil fuels nuclear hydro/renew. peaking base load oil gas-CT PC IGCC NGCC 8

Engineering Cost Model Engineering Cost Model Engineering Cost Model Electricity Generation (hypothetical plant) � First cost of capital ($ per kW) � Interest rate � Equipment lifetime (years) � Heat rate (efficiency) � Operation and maintenance (mills per kWh) � Price of fuel ($ per GJ) � Carbon emissions coefficient (kg C per GJ) Capture Process � Fraction of CO 2 captured (efficiency) � Capital Cost ($ per kg CO 2 per hour) � Operation and Maintenance (mills per kg CO 2 ) � Energy required (kWh per kg CO 2 ) Calculate total cost per kWh (mills per kWh) with and without capture for each generating technology 9

Cost Comparison Cost Comparison Cost Comparison reference with capture mills/kWh mills/kWh $/ton C Pulverized Coal 45.5 84.4 189 Coal IGCC 50.6 68.8 96 NGCC 36.8 53.3 187 Note: Cost per ton of carbon avoided is for capture only and does not include sequestration cost. 10

Electricity Cost as a Function of Carbon Price 140 PC 120 IGCC PC-capture 100 mills per kWh 80 IGCC-capture NGCC NGCC-capture 60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 carbon price (dollars per tC) 11

Electricity Cost as a Function of Carbon Price 140 120 IGCC 100 mills per kWh IGCC-capture 80 NGCC NGCC-capture 60 40 20 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 carbon price (dollars per tC) 12

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($0 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 coal (IGCCcd) 6,000 billion kWh 5,000 coal (IGCC) 4,000 gas (NGCCcd) coal (PC) 3,000 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 13

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($100 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 coal (IGCCcd) billion kWh 5,000 4,000 coal (IGCC) gas (NGCCcd) 3,000 coal (PC) 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 14

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($200 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 coal (IGCCcd) billion kWh 5,000 4,000 coal (IGCC) gas (NGCCcd) 3,000 coal (PC) 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 15

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($0 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 coal (IGCCcd) 6,000 billion kWh 5,000 coal (IGCC) 4,000 gas (NGCCcd) coal (PC) 3,000 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 16

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($100 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 coal (IGCCcd) billion kWh 5,000 4,000 coal (IGCC) gas (NGCCcd) 3,000 coal (PC) 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 17

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($200 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 coal (IGCCcd) billion kWh 5,000 4,000 coal (IGCC) gas (NGCCcd) 3,000 coal (PC) 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 18

SGM-USA Electricity Generation ($300 per tC) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 billion kWh coal (IGCCcd) 5,000 4,000 coal (IGCC) gas (NGCCcd) 3,000 coal (PC) 2,000 gas (NGCC) gas (CT) 1,000 oil hydro nuclear 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 19

SGM-USA Marginal Abatement Cost Curves in 2030 350 2030 2030 with capture 300 and disposal carbon price (dollars per tC) 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Reduction in carbon emissions from baseline (million tC) 20

Current Modeling Activities Current Modeling Activities Current Modeling Activities Prototypes for SGM-USA and SGM-Germany Object version of Agriculture and Land Use (AgLU) model Extend to other SGM regions Questions � Could we have done this in GAMS or GEMPACK? � C++ or Java? 21