European markets are large, with the direct channel less developed than in the UK Estimated motor market GWP in 2017 1 ( € bn) Estimated Admiral share of direct market 2 (%) Traditional vs Direct 9.6 1.3 6% 14.4 1.7 9% 10% 20.7 0.6 44.7 3.5 8% 10 years from launch 20% 7.1 7.7 (2003) = 12% Sources : 1) Internal estimate based on Ania, FFA, Inese, ICEA, ABI, Deloitte Motor seminar, management estimates; 2) Internal estimate of Admiral share of direct market 24 Notes : UK figures converted based on 31 Dec 2017 FX (1,124); Criteria used by national authorities to range size of respective markets may be sensibly inconsistent; all Spanish data excludes Mutua Madrilena (inclusion in the direct channel disputed due to its hybrid business model) Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Steady but moderate growth of the direct market over time Share of direct in motor insurance (%) 1 2000 2010 2017 4% 10% 12% Spain shows the largest direct share, with several examples of hybrid distribution models e.g. several traditional also 1% 6% 10% distribute online Italy benefitted from the fastest growth 2% 2% 3% from 2010 (c. 6% CAGR) France is at an earlier stage of development Favourable trends observed in H1 2018, particularly in Italy and France 2% 6% 7% 29% 50% 60% 2 Sources : 1) Internal estimate based on Ania, FFA, Inese, ICEA, ABI, Deloitte Motor seminar data; management estimates 2) Management estimates 25 Notes: all Spanish data excludes Mutua Madrilena (inclusion in the direct channel disputed due to its hybrid business model) Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Admiral growth outpaces the market Admiral Premium Growth in Europe : 2015-2017 (%) 1 126% Each of the Admiral operations has been growing faster than their respective markets 62% 59% from 2015 to 2017 30% 4% Total Total SP IT FR SP Admiral European Europe markets 2 Sources : 1) internal estimation based on Ania, FFA, Inese, ICEA, ABI, Deloitte Motor seminar data Notes: all Spanish data excludes Mutua Madrilena (inclusion in the direct channel disputed due to its hybrid business model); 2) calculated as 26 cumulated premium growth of direct market in Italy, Spain and France between 2015 and 2017 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
European Markets have diverse features European Market Overview 1 Acquisition cost Acquisition Market average persistency Market average premium Market risk Underwriting segment variance Fraud frequency Market claims frequency Claims Market average claim cost Markets share similarities but require adaptation to specific market context Different competences are more relevant in each country, for example: Italy: Underwriting and antifraud sophistication is key Spain and France: Higher acquisition costs drive focus on efficient customer acquisition Sources : 1) Internal estimation based on Ania, FFA, Inese, ICEA, ABI, Deloitte Motor seminar data; 27 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
European Market Features: The Cycle Market Average Premium trends 1 (Indexed to 100 in 2005) 130 120 Sharp downturn in average market premium in Italy and Spain over the 110 last few years (c. 20%) Upward trend in the UK while more 100 stable premiums in France Italy and UK with more pronounced 90 cyclicality 80 70 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources : 1) Internal estimation based on Ania L'Assicurazione Italiana 2017-2018; FFA (FFA tableau de bord assurance), ICEA, DGS data. 28 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
European Market Features: Profitability Market Combined Ratio trends 1 120% 110% Italy has seen the sharpest cycle of all the European markets In France motor business was 100% historically more cross-subsidised by other profit sources 90% 80% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Sources : 1) Internal estimation based on data from Ania (L'Assicurazione Italiana); FFA (FFA tableau de bord assurance); INESE (insurance companies report); Deloitte (Motor 29 Seminar); EY Note : Italian market data calculated considering MTPL + MOT Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Scale matters but there are opportunities to outperform Comparison of main Direct Players in 2017 (Premiums ( € m) vs Combined Ratio) 1 150% Italy 140% Spain 130% France Combined Ratio 120% Admiral 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Gross Written Premiums Sources : 1) Admiral data on written basis; direct competitors: internal estimation based on Infobila; Inese; FFA data. 30 Notes : Data for illustration purposes only, basis for calculation of market data may vary across countries and data sources Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Value of European policies is concentrated on the renewal book … Split of lifetime value between year 1 and subsequent years 1 French and Spanish policies are more reliant on renewal book, mostly due to persistency and acquisition costs 100% 89% 124% 148% Cost of growth is higher in Spain and France, where new business represents -48% and -24% of the overall lifetime value of a policy In Italy, there is a lower distribution of lifetime value between new business and renewal years, hence lower cost of growth 11% 0% -24% -48% New Business L'Olivier L'Olivier ConTe ConTe AS AS Cumulative renewal years 2 Notes : 1) “Lifetime value” is the sum of variable items (revenues and cost) related to a portfolio policy – i.e. all fixed costs are excluded; 2) Cumulative 31 renewal years is the variable profit per policy (taking into account the effect of persistency) excluding the NB year Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
…and total lifetime value per policy is growing year after year Lifetime value 1 of a policy: 2016 vs 2018 (Indexed to 100 in 2016) 143 133 118 100 100 100 2016 2018 2016 2018 2016 2018 Notes : 1) “Lifetime value” is the sum of variable items (revenues and cost) related to a new business policy – i.e. all fixed costs are excluded 32 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Continued and strong top-line growth in Europe European customers European turnover ( € m) 187 925k 160 783k 126 608k 2016 H1 2017 H1 2018 H1 2016 H1 2017 H1 2018 H1 33 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Sustainable loss ratio Admiral European projected ultimate loss ratio 1 Admiral European ultimate loss ratio development 2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 86% 86% 82% 84% 84% 83% 82% 81% 81% 82% 78% 80% 79% 82% 75% 82% 75% 80% 75% 75% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Admiral EU ultimate loss ratio remained stable over the last three years on a written basis, despite material book growth Continued prudent reserving approach with positive development of booked loss ratio 2013 and 2014 have been exceptional years in the Italian market; increase in 2015 driven by worsening cycle and acceleration of growth Ultimate loss ratios in the graph are not fully comparable to the market as they do not include ancillaries, which generally have a lower loss ratio Sources: 1) Blend of ConTe, L’olivier and Admiral Seguros ultimate loss ratios based on Independent actuarial projection, underwriting year basis 2) Blend of ConTe, L’olivier and 34 Admiral Seguros ultimate loss ratios based on Independent actuarial projection, underwriting year basis; development by financial year (colour coded) and split by underwriting year Notes : Motor loss ratio; Ancillaries are excluded from calculations Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Expense ratio improving due to efficiencies and scale Admiral European expense ratio 1 40% 39% 38% 38% 33% 31% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 Admiral European businesses significantly improving ER trends Growing scale Increased share of online services Internal efficiencies and cost optimisation Sources: 1) Average of whole account ConTe, L’Olivier and Admiral Seguros expense ratios calculated as written expenses /turnover net of XoL 35 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
European operations are profitable overall Admiral European losses 1 ( € m) … … and profit 1 ( € m) 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 3 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 -2 -5 -10 ConTe profitable for the 4 th year Minor losses from L’olivier and Admiral Seguros combined Reserve released in all three countries Notes : 1) Admiral share of earned P&L 36 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Growth and profitability drives value creation Admiral share of profit or loss per policy ( € ) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 10 - -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 925k policies across Admiral Europe, with a cumulated average investment per policy to date of € 89 1 Improving share of profit/loss per policy and growing lifetime value per policy drives value creation Notes : 1) Cumulative Profit and loss divided by active policy base as of HY 2018 37 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Summary Direct channel has been growing at a moderate pace over the past few years European businesses largely outgrowing their respective markets and achieving material top-line growth European operations overall profitable, showing a consistent trend of improvement 38 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
European Insurance 2: Admiral Model in Europe Milena Mondini – CEO European Insurance Antonio Bagetta – Head of operations, ConTe Daniele Tamborrelli – Technical Director, ConTe Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Admiral competitive advantage in the UK … and overseas A Efficient direct acquisition B Sophisticated and accurate pricing C Effective claims handling D Low cost structure E Customer focus F People and Culture 40 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Efficient direct acquisition: Customer acquisition supported by brand trust Direct Media Spending 3 benchmark Brand Awareness (%) Annual Average 2015-17 ( € M) Direct Market Admiral brands Top direct average 2018 Player 2018 2015 2018 6,2 2,6 2,2 2,2 0,6 0,5 0,6 0,3 40% 1 62% 1 55% 2 82% 1 49,5 39,9 51% 4 61% 4 64% 4 93% 4 13,8 2,5 2,5 1,5 1,6 1,0 10,6 3% 5 36% 6 38% 6 69% 6 3,8 1,2 0,5 Our brand awareness in Europe has grown to market standards Positive word of mouth and very selective investments on media and partnership led the growth, without large-scale spending Spanish and French acquisition costs are higher as the whole market spends more 1) Aided, source Nextplora, target 70% M 30% W; 25-54 years old; 33% direct, 33% traditional, 33% mixed; 2) Direct Line excluded, Verti included; 3) Perimeter of comparable spending includes internal estimates 41 on TV, radio, press and online brand, excludes online performance and price comparison. Sorces: Nielsen (Italy), Mpanel-YouGov (France) and Infoadex-Kantar (Spain). IFrance data refer to 2016-17 only; 4) Source: Netquest, online survey 1000 respondents, Men and Women, 18/55 years old, Car owner with driving licence, in charge of car insurance purchase, August 2018; 5) Aided, source: Mpanel - survey over 600 respondents, 4 times a year. Target 25-49 yrs old; 6) Aided, source : YouGov panel - online panel with over 150:000 respondents, July 2018 - 600 interviews. Target 16-65 yrs old Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Efficient direct acquisition: Price comparison % of Direct sales intermediated by PCW: Admiral vs market 1 67% 64% 64% 48% 33% 30% #RIF! #RIF! #RIF! #RIF! #RIF! #RIF! Price comparison is efficient, costs are 20 to 50% lower Succeeding in price comparison requires accurate pricing segmentation and competitiveness High focus on non-standard risks, which tend to be over-represented on price comparison websites Source : 1) 2017 figures, management estimates based on FFA, Ania, Inese, internal data 42 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Sophisticated and accurate pricing: Solid loss ratio performance in Europe ConTe ultimate projected Loss ratio 1 compared to direct market 2 MTPL + MOD premiums 82% 82% 79% 77% 77% 80% 79% 76% 65% 64% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ConTe Market Loss Ratio advantage in Italian direct market; close to market level in Spain and France Recent underwriting years are projected with prudence; we expect decreases Business size contributes to loss ratio as more data allows more accurate pricing Renewals book will age and contribute to future year loss ratio improvement Source: 1) ConTe external projection as of H1 2018, written basis, MTPL+MOD; 2) Average published results of direct competitors, written basis, source ANIA-Infobila, 43 MTPL+MOD. 2017 is a management estimate. Adjusted to account for cost of handling claims (-4 p.p) Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Sophisticated and accurate pricing: Loss ratio in Europe is not only pricing Spain example Geo-localisation tools against “Ghost” brokers Claims Product Antifraud Italy example Internally developed IT-Data Pricing antifraud tool and validation team against Under- fake claims Air Plastic bag writing Call Center Tele- quality France example matics Use of web automation to check insurance history declaration against «quote massaging» Antifraud, Underwriting and Claims tailored to environment, with a twist of Admiral innovative spirit IT / Data / Telematics are growing opportunities, we are investing in internal skills, Guidewire and Amazon Cloud Pricing capability is enhanced by solid technical and technological foundations 44 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Sophisticated and accurate pricing: A focused team is key to build an advantage Many CEOs have pricing background Pricing has a role in International every important cooperation, decision communication, exchange Technical expertise but also business and Large teams common sense talent Pricing in Admiral is central to decision making and most of our CEOs have a pricing background Our teams are substantially larger than the average of our competition International pricing team in Cardiff to support local business in developing its own advantage 45 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Sophisticated and accurate pricing: Mindset is also key Open-minded approach Fast Evolution Number of rate changes per year (range min - max) Price comparison footprint 1 per individual operation vs market 81% 82% 71% 61% 25 - 50 max min Top 4 direct Top 4 direct Admiral Avg Top4 direct L'olivier Top4 direct 3-20 max players players Seguros market market min Spain France Admiral EU Direct market sample Culture to try provide a quote to every risk Continuous stream of improvement projects, going live as soon as ready (we can do daily rate Accurate pricing on “non standard risks” e.g. changes) “Previous Claims” or “No prior insurance” Direct players are active, but not all of them Decision-making attitude balancing solid analysis and common sense Source : 1) Itelligent for Rastrator, Spain, Lelynx for France 46 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Sophisticated and accurate pricing: With the right pricing strategy, data is central Many Data Sources High Data Quality Smart use with Team mix of Access as a first Culture of data business focus and technical and Technology mover value technical expertise business skills Some examples: Actuaries, data analysts, tech experts as well as MBAs Telematics box data flows from top business schools in pricing team Vehicle new technical details (e.g. Active Culture of easy access to every database to foster new Security) insight generation Insurance and driving history databases Amazon cloud, SAS/R/Python, Domino Data science (e.g. past claims and convictions) at platform, Guidewire rating software granular level Fraud portal integrations Customer interactions online 47 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Effective claims handling: Europe is very diverse from a claims perspective Average third party liability claims costs Main differences by market 60% Customers High Percentage of fraudulent ConTe (3) 40% claims Direct Line Market AVG Percentage of claims Genertel Medium where a counterparty Genialloyd 20% lawyer has been Linear instructed Low Zuritel 0% Regulation 0 200 400 600 800 Knock for knock with significant differences among EU countries Liability limit Unlimited 6M € Unlimited 70M € Products High variety in terms of limits Source : Internal estimation based on Ania, FFA, Inese, ICEA, ABI, Deloitte Motor seminar data; 48 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Effective claims handling: Europe is very diverse from a claims perspective Example of large claim cost by market ( € m) 1 ~ 17 ILLUSTRATIVE Large BI Fatal ~6 ~ 3 ~ 3 1,5-2 0,5-1 ~1 ~1 0,5-1 UK Italy France Spain TPL Market Frequency 2 6% 6% 4% 8% Fraud 0-1% 3-5% 0-1% ~1% (% of claims opened) France with the highest large BI costs in Europe also due to PPO mechanism Spain with highest claims frequency and therefore the need for more standardised processes Italy more advanced on fraud detection and management Source: 1) European transport safety council 2015 report, Internal estimate. - Example of tetraplegia lesion on 1 male, 41 years old, salary € 40.000; 1 wife, 2 49 sons (6 and 9 years old), 1 parent and 1 sister. 2) TPL market frequency includes body injuries and accidental damage Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Effective claims handling: Admiral European operations benefiting from group competitive advantages Competitive advantage Examples Claims Organisation centralised in the 3 580k € ANIA incentive in Italy HQs and highly specialised Positive Knock for Knock balance due to positive fault / no fault claims ratio and good negotiation skills in Italy and Spain Culture of control and partnership with Cooperation and partnership with network third parties Strong focus in terms of percentage of claims handled by garage network Anti-fraud excellence ConTe achieved 2.3 point Loss Ratio saving vs 1.5 market average 1 Likelihood to renew after a claim above 80% 2 Quality of service Fast, proactive and customer-oriented 24h assistance in case of claims in Italy processes Cash & Go for small damages in Spain (below 500 € ) Path towards automation of processes via robotics and digitalisation in France Source: 1) IVASS; calculated as point of Loss ratio saved due to anti-fraud detection activities. Calculated only on Zero paid claims 2) internal surveys; for 50 Italy only including customers who received garage network services Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Effective claims handling: Admiral EU claim cost compared to the market Average Claims costs vs market 1 (indexed, 2017, UK not included ) 100 87 EU Market EU Admiral Admiral European operations has higher proportion of new business customers than market average Given this difference, Admiral Europe is already experiencing signs of competitive advantages in claims, in particular in ConTe and Admiral Seguros - where data is more mature Source: ANIA for Italy, estimate based on ICEA (Association of Insurance Companies) data in Spain, internal data 51 Note : 1) Estimate includes only Italy, France and Spain operations. Average cost for the market calculated with the same volume mix of the 3 Admiral companies. For France, considered only material damage given the lower maturity of the portfolio. For Italy calculated on current and prior year only to be comparable with ANIA data (99% of total claims in ConTe.it). Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Low cost structure: Expense ratio improving over time Europe Written Expense ratio 1 Productivity: Active policies per FTE +10% -5 p.p. CAGR 745 615 38% 33% 2015 2017 2015 2017 Other her key 2017 17 metrics (index, 2015 basis) No Non n Acqu quisition on Cost st per Policy 87 Cost st per sal ale e 90 Expense ratio higher than market for each operation, but improving due to higher productivity, increasing scale and lower cost per sale Sources: 1) Average of whole account ConTe, L’Olivier and Admiral Seguros expense ratios calculated as written expenses /turnover net of XoL 52 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Low cost structure: Efficiency improving across all operations Turnover and costs, YoY change Scale effect in the Italian direct market (written basis, 2017 vs 2016) 1 (2017 data 2 ) Expenses (% of Turnover) Turnover YoY change Costs YoY change 50% 43% 40% 3 ConTe (3) Verti 30% Market average Genertel 23% 20% Genialloyd 14% 12% Linear 10% 5% Zuritel 0% -4% Turnover 0 200 400 600 800 ( € M) Turnover grew more than costs in each Scale matters: bigger size and maturity leading individual market generating expense reduction lower incidence of fixed costs ConTe.it experienced a cost reduction although YoY, Admiral EU benefited from 3ppt expense a double digit turnover growth reduction due to higher scale ConTe.it aligned to market average Sources: 1)internal data ; 2) Infobila, ConTe.it internal data, management estimate; 3) Expense ratio adjusted for consistency 53 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Low cost structure: ER reduction led by a few strategic pillars Key pillars Examples Personal area with self service Fast, customer-oriented digital processes Process optimisation features and easy access to information (e.g. dynamic FAQs on website and IVR 1 ) From ~40% online closure in 2015 Continuous process review to answer to 60%+ in 2018 in Italy customer needs From dedicated to multi-skilled agents both in Italy and Spain Culture Flat organisation & entrepreneurial approach All employees own shares My company my money Culture of control and effective supplier management Notes: 1) Interactive Voice Response (IVR) refers to automated technology for a telephony system that gathers information from callers and uses this 54 data to route the calls to the appropriate recipient. Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Customer focus: Customers and Quality Admiral Experience Customers are key for our development and success… …Focus on quality as an enabler to move customers from traditional channel… …as a result all our operations have good scores in terms of Customer Satisfaction A few examples Excellent call centre service Money back guarantee in case Assistance in case of claim 24h with an average answer in less of poor service in a market a day; offer the longest than a minute where quality is not a given opening hours Constantly increase the number of self-service online functionalities 55 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
People and Culture: Key Success Factors • Management with a mix of managerial and insurance Italy #3 experience • Focus on developing talent • External recruiting of senior roles adding to technical and market experience Spain #4 COMMUNICATION REWARD & RECOGNITION A few examples Annual Staff General Meeting Special Programs for Talent Our pillars France #38 Constant team meetings and 121s Incentives Schemes and contests FUN EQUALITY Managers on the phone and continuous Target and record celebrations listening Ministry of Fun Friendly staff forums, Focus groups 56 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
EU organisational chart Milena Mondini European Insurance CEO Sarah Costantino Pascal Christophe Elisa Andrea Harris Moretti Gonzalvez Sanchez De Blas Tamborrelli Admiral Seguros ConTe.it L’olivier EUIGS AECS 1 EU central European operations ’ CEOs Heads of EU central functions Notes: 1) AECS is Admiral’s new Spanish insurance company that will underwrite policies in France, Italy and Spain. 57 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Brexit project progressing as planned Brexit project update in a nutshell 1 A new insurance company and intermediary have been established and licensed in Spain The project is progressing as planned and we will be ready to operate 2 post-Brexit after the UK has left the EU (also in a scenario of hard Brexit) Expected outcome 1 Min inimal im impact on on cu customers and and in internal or organisation whilst ensuring legal and regulatory requirements are met Maintain strong governance and increase cross-European 2 collaboration 58 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Learnings in Europe: Technological evolution Before Evolution and current structure • Limited investments in internal automation • Shared technology centre (EUIGS) based in Spain 1 and IT internal processes enabling integrated technology functions, IT decisions and synergies • Some duplication of technology • Increase technology capacity and talent (EUIGS 2 investments/not maximizing efficiencies and IT value headcount growing by c. 50% in 2 years) • Several platforms and technologies/not • Adoption of modern platforms and technologies: 3 homogenous architecture Guidewire, Cloud, Big Data, Machine Learning • Applying best practices from tech leaders: 4 DevOps, Site Reliability 59 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Admiral Europe: What’s next? 5. 5. Da Data and and technology as as 1. 1. Cut utting-edge UW • Antifraud competence com ompetitive adv advantages • Cloud strategy centre • Data strategy • Analytics competence • EUIGS transformation centre • Pricing innovation …customers wan ant! 4. Lea 4. Lean or organisa sation 2. 2. Expl Exploration of of ne new • Outsourcing sou ources of of gr growth • Automation / • Hybrid channel • Alternative direct robotics • Self-provisioning acquisition 3. 3. Foc ocused & agil agile pr product in innovation • InnoLab • Ring-fencing r esources • Lean methodology 60 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
A view on the future Admiral European losses 1 ( €) … … and profit 1 ( € ) By 2022, we aim to deliver profit/year in the range of € 30-60m on a written whole account basis assuming normal market 2018 2015 2016 2017 conditions H1 As of today, Admiral share of whole 3 account profit is sensibly lower than in 2015 2016 2017 the UK (e.g. ConTe taking around 35-40% share of profit 2 ) 2018 H1 -2 As profit becomes more material we -5 expect this ratio to improve materially -10 Notes : 1) Admiral share of profit . 2) As a result of share of risk with re-insurers 61 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Drivers for future profitability 1 Continued sustainable growth 2 Channel diversification and optimisation 3 Consolidate loss ratio advantage 4 Increase “revenue per user” through ancillaries and other business opportunities 62 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Summary Admiral core competitive advantages exported to Europe European insurers benefiting from accelerated growth and economies of scale Aim to deliver material profit in the medium term 63 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
ConTe Costantino Moretti - CEO ConTe Fun ConTe’s First Birthday Family
The Market The Market 65 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Italian Market Whole Market Ratios (Third Party Liability) 1 Market Premium (Third party Liability and Motor Own Damage) ( € bn) 2 Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Combiend ratio 20,7 20,2 20,1 19,9 108% 106% 103% 18,7 17,6 98% 97% 16,7 94% 93% 16,2 91% 16,0 88% 19% 18% 18% 22% 21% 18% 22% 21% 20% 89% 87% 85% 76% 76% 74% 72% 69% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Cars Registered (m) 3 2,16 1,97 1,96 1,83 1,75 Large, profitable market 1,58 1,40 1,30 1,36 Market turnover declined by c. 23% since 2012, due to lower average premiums Potential signs of positive shift - new car registrations growing since 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: 1) ANIA:LASSICURAZIONE-ITALIANA-2017-2018 . 2) Internal estimate based on ANIA: LASSICURAZIONE-ITALIANA-2017-2018. 3) UNRAE 66 Annnual report 2017 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Market Competitive Landscape Distribution Channel Split 1 2017 Whole Market GWP 1 2017 Direct Market GWP 1 2017 Others 4% Internet&Phone 8% 11% Market share Top 5 Growth Direct 2017 1 (17 v 16) 1 Total Direct market Tot Direct Market Genialloyd 3,6% 6,1% Brokers 16% 43% UNIPOLSAI 23% Verti 2,3% -5,4% ALLIANZ Genertel 2,0% 2,0% GENERALI Rest of the Market 0,93% 2 23% 2 ConTe 12% Linear 0,92% 16% 10% Agents 73% Highly concentrated market Direct market doubled in the last 7 years but growth was lower than expected Price Comparison growing (c. 14% of Market New Business 3 ) Car Insurance is the dominant line of P&C business (c. 50% of GWP 1 ) Source: 1) Internal estimate based on ANIA: LASSICURAZIONE-ITALIANA-2017-2018. 2) Internal data. 3): Internal estimate. 67 Note : 1) Includes MTPL (Motor Third Party Liability) and MOD(Motor Own Damage) Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Main Direct Competitors Genialloyd Verti 2 nd largest player Largest player Launched in 2002 Launched in 1996 Rebranded as Verti in 2018 (was Direct Line) Part of Allianz Group Part of Mapfre Group from 2015 Profitable Significant losses in the last 2 years Multi-brand: GenialClick (100% on-line), The Aided Brand Awareness of the new Genial+ (physical intermediaries) brand is below 17% 1 Prima Hybrid models Big groups showed an appetite to increase synergies in distribution strategy Youngest player in the market Few Direct Brands are testing physical Online agency intermediaries to distribute their products c. 250k active customers 2 An opportunity to enlarge the Direct Market Low premium focus but also a need to adapt the operating model Source : 1) Nexplora for ConTe. 2)Prima.it website. 68 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Market characteristics Regulatory changes Motor Third Party Liability compulsory product, only 15% of Motor Own Damage 1 IDD and local new measures should increase Insurers obliged to quote for 100% of risks efficiency and transparency, reduce claims costs and fraud: Claims handling is complex Digitalisation of documents and processes High bodily injury claims frequency ±17% 1 (self-service) Fraud Black box (telematics) promotion Higher use of Solicitors New IVASS 3 Anti-Fraud common database Late reporting of claims New small BI guidelines on payment Regulatory focus to improve transparency Very high Telematics penetration - above 15% 2 and comparison Price Comparison distribution is growing 2 Overall, good opportunities to increase the Dominated by Facile.it and Segugio.it (jointly willingness of customers to shop online c. 90% market share) Source: 1) ANIA annual report 2017, represents total incidence of BI claims on the total claims handled. 2) Internal estimate. (3) IVASS: Istituto per la 69 Vigilanza sulle Assicurazioni (Insurance Supervision Institute) Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
The Market ConTe 70 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
ConTe Business Performance: Historic evolution Turnover ( € m) Customers 170 500k 139 415k 110 107 315k 102 285k 280k 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Expense Ratio 1 Ultimate Loss Ratio 2 ULR first projection ULR latest projection 82% 83% 81% 81% 80% 79% 79% 35% 35% 76% 31% 30% 65% 64% 27% 27% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source : 1) Whole account expense ratio on a written basis including ancillaries. 2)Whole account written ULR based on external actuarial LR projections 71 Note: ratios are not market comparable Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
ConTe in a nutshell 1. Efficient growth over time sustained by a well recognised Brand 2. Customer centric organisation 3. Robust and reliable Loss Ratio position 4. Gaining efficiencies whilst maintaining good customer service 5. Leading Telematics player in the Direct Market 72 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
ConTe in a nutshell 73 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
1) Efficient growth over time sustained by a well recognised brand Aided Brand Awareness 1 ConTe share of TV/Radio spending vs growth rate 2 100% 32% 80% 64% 62% 54% 60% 20% 40% 17% 40% 19,4% 11% 20% 11,4% 9,8% 6,1% 0% 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018 ConTe APB's Growth YOY ConTe Share of Spending ConTe Genialloyd Genertel Direct Line Verti Linear Zurich Connect Quixa Prima.it ConTe Brand Awareness in line with competitors with room for further improvement Good correlation between Brand Awareness and improvement of top line performance Material investment in 2016 Efficient growth achieved by ConTe in flat/decreasing market H1 decrease impacted by temporary lower media spending linked to efficient acquisition cost Source : 1) Nextplora: research center. 2) Estimation by Wave maker media agency based on Nielson 74 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
2) Customer centric organisation Customer centricity means: interactivity, speed, execution Customers are engaged to develop new products and features Customer needs and behaviours change rapidly, we need to respond quickly Execution means deliver value to the end users as soon as possible ConTe is embracing innovative operating models that effectively respond to those requests (Agile, DevOps) 75 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
3) Robust and Reliable Loss Ratio position ConTe booked loss ratio development 1 94% 93% 93% 92% 90% 89% 90% 87% 83% 82% 81% 80% 77% 71% 73% 69% 68% 67% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 The Loss Ratio of each underwriting year positively evolving over time Prudent claims reserving approach Positive evolution of Claims KPIs over time Notes : 1) ConTe booked loss ratio development by financial year (colour coded) and split by underwriting year. Ancillaries are excluded from calculations 76 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
3) Robust and Reliable Loss Ratio position 2017 Loss Ratio 1 ranking by direct company 104% 97% 93% 93% 83% ConTe Genialloyd Verti Linear Genertel (Allianz) (Direct Line) (Unipol) (Generali) ConTe has a clear Loss Ratio advantage, despite strong growth Effective Pricing Advanced Antifraud solutions (ConTe achieved 2.3 point Loss Ratio saving vs 1.5 market average 2 ) Focus on Claims handling: full internal control of claims network, technical specialisation of handlers, quality audit Source: 1) ANIA data from http://www.infobila.ania.it. Calendar MTPL LR 2) Internal elaboration of IVASS annual report on Frauds 77 Note: External Actuary Estimation adjusted with claims handling cost to be comparable with the market Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
4) Gaining efficiencies whilst maintaining good customer service Expense Ratio decrease has been achieved due to: Indexed reduction of Operational Costs per Policy Positive scale effect Efficiency and digitalisation programme: 33% 1. Telephony System improved 11% 2. IT platform modernisation 100% 3. Lean and Agile culture 4. Digital User Experience revised 56% 5. Self-service and automation 2015 Operational Digital 2018 Efficiencies/Scale improvements Maintaining a focus on good service Low cost culture High Net Promoter Score Spending review contest Good on-line reputation (social, review websites) Group purchasing synergies 78 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
5) Leading Telematics player in the Direct Market Allows better risk selection and growth in higher risk geographies c. 20% ConTe New Business sales are Telematics, slightly higher than Market (c. 15%) 1 Telematics business is profitable Very valuable tool to reduce claims costs Continued evolution and innovation of product: from a flat discount model launched in 2009 towards more interactive and customised product Future opportunities: More value-added services for customers and data enrichment of claims handling process The Customer point of view Three reasons to BUY: Two reasons to NOT BUY: 1. Claims assistance 1. If he/she is a fraudster 2. Anti-theft capabilities 2. Some people prefer not to share data 3. Anti-fraud protection Source: 1) Internal data 79 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Business Performance: Telematics antifraud example The accident occurred Customer reports an A very expensive claim! in a very busy street in accident involving 3 vehicles Naples Engine off! Different location! Accident never happened and the damage was Location was a garage! caused with a hammer! 80 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
What we’ve learned: Underwriting risk 2008 - 2010 2011 onwards Adverse selection False payments Robust LR Personal Identity frauds Geographical false declaration Rating structure not optimised More data points and mature portfolio Low use of external data Solid underwriting processes Antifraud tools not in place Technology enhancements 81 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
What we’ve learned: Risk selection examples Customer providing a manipulated postal ticket 1 Customer declares to live in a geographical 2 receipt of payment to get the policy issued area where the insurance cost is low without paying the correct amount Postal ticket receipt Province of Cremona Initials: CR Province of Crotone Initials: KR 82 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
The four pillars of our sustainable growth strategy LOSS RATIO advantage GROWTH Pricing & advanced Competitive prices analytics Product evolution Investment in data Customer loyalty Claims tech skills Innovation Lab Champions in customer service and convenience PEOPLE EFFICIENCY • Great Place to Work Digital investments • Talent recruitment & Process automation development Robotics • Fun 83 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Summary ConTe is a profitable Operation with solid foundations in a competitive Market Loss Ratio is the key competitive advantage built over time ConTe will pursue a sustainable growth strategy based on four pillars: Loss Ratio, as growth and profit lever Efficiency Product enhancement and services improvements A talented and motivated Team 84 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Admiral Seguros Sarah Harris – CEO 2018 2015
The Market 86 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Spanish market: Stable context Gross Written Premium ( € bn) Market Combined Ratio LR ER 12,1 11,7 11,5 11,3 10,6 10,0 9,9 10,1 10,6 10,9 99% 100% 101% 102% 98% 99% 100% 97% 98% 95% 22% 23% 20% 20% 22% 22% 19% 20% 22% 20% 79% 80% 79% 80% 78% 78% 77% 77% 76% 75% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New Car sales (m) 8% 13% A sizeable market ( € 10.9bn) 24 % 19 % Economic recovery and the new claims Baremo have led to a return to growth 1,3 Ratios stable despite a 20% fall in premium 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,0 1,0 0,9 from 2008 to 2014 0,8 0,7 0,7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: ICEA, INESE and Public Information 87 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Direct Market – c. 12% of total premium Market share by company Premium 2017 FY Growth Market Share TOP 5 TRADITIONAL (17 vs 16) 19,3% 3,9% MAPFRE Other Direct; Traditional (78%) 13,1% 4,4% ALLIANZ 6% Línea Directa; Direct (22%) 6,8% 1,4% AXA 6,4% 4,9% 2,7% GENERALI Mutua 4,8% 4,2% REALE Madrileña; 48,9% 3,8% TOTAL Mapfre; 19% 10% Premium Allianz; 13% TOP 5 DIRECT Market Share Growth (excluding Admiral) (17 vs 16) 9,9% 2,8% MUTUA MADRILEÑA Other Axa; 7% 6,4% 7,1% LINEA DIRECTA (Bankinter) Traditional; 38,4% 1,8% 5,8% DIRECT (Axa) 0,6% -6,3% VERTI (Mapfre) 0,6% -0,3% FENIX (Allianz) 19,2% 4,1% TOTAL 9,4% 5,6% TOTAL (excluding Mutua Madrileña) Market share by distribution channel 0,76% 16% ADMIRAL Banks Offices Online Other Agents Brokers Direct share c. 12% (excluding Mutua Madrileña) 54% 46% of the total market, growing slowly over time Presence of both Direct and Traditional players Non-intermediated Traditional in non-intermediated channels Source: ICEA and internal management estimates, market share by company based on 2017 numbers 88 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Main competitors high level profile Mutua Madrileña Linea Directa Launched in 1995, 100% owned by Bankinter Hybrid model, 3 rd in Spanish Market Large and profitable Very loyal portfolio with strong presence in Madrid and in Auto (core), home, expanding to health high premium segments Aggressive commercial strategy with a high media Auto (core), home, health, life and asset management investment & brand awareness Digital transformation and high media investment Sophisticated pricing and analytics Direct Seguros Verti Owned by Mapfre (Spanish market leader) Owned by Axa Group Still small market share Second of the direct players, focused on Auto Auto (core), home and pet Competitive pricing with strong focus on data Leverages Mapfre’s structure and capabilities to develop its offering Investment lower than the larger competitors with brand image focused on efficiency and simplicity Intense media presence, highlighting price competitiveness Source : Public information and company disclosures 89 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Market characteristics Low premium Claims Baremo change Claims cost constrained by regulatory environment Baremo system regulates (Knock for Knock, Baremo) compensation for bodily injury cases Long-term trend of frequency reduction, Changes in 2016: accentuated during the economic crisis Increased compensation in large BI Low premium Small BI more difficult to claim Impact of the change has been High acquisition cost moderate: Targeted premium increases Greater reduction than Large Loss ratio differences between NB and expected in small BI renewal; culture of NB discounts Uncertainty remains as large BI cases Acquisition expenses unusually high compared are still working through the courts other countries (high marketing spend) 90 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Admiral Seguros 91 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Business Performance: Historic evolution Turnover ( € m) Customers 73 224k 62 189k 55 54 164k 48 161k 137k 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Expense Ratio 1 Ultimate Loss Ratio 2 ULR first projection ULR latest projection 51% 96% 94% 91% 89% 89% 88% 87% 42% 42% 84% 84% 79% 38% 35% 33% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 Source : 1) Whole account expense ratio on a written basis including ancillaries. 2)Whole account written ULR based on external actuarial LR projections 92 Note: ratios are not market comparable Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Learnings: Branding Launch date: 2006 Launch date: 2013 Brand Awareness peak: 72% (2012) Brand Awareness: 61% Brand Confidence Index: 10,3% Brand Confidence Index: 34,3% Sales (2017) 22% 78% 22% 78% 22% 78% Balumba Qualitas Source: 1) Internal figures, 2) Infoadex and Brandtracker for brand indexes 93 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Our path to success 4. Innovative 2. Lean & Customer-centric 3. Outperformance on price comparison 1. Loss Ratio Excellence 94 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Loss Ratio advantage Admiral Seguros pricing ability - loss ratio 76% 76% 71-73% Admiral Seguros Ultimate Loss Ratio 1 is already close to market level When adjusted for the weight of New Business vs Renewal we estimate a market comparable loss ratio advantage of 3-5 points Market 2017 Admiral Seguros ultimate Admiral Seguros adjusted market comparable ultimate market comparable Estimated NB 20% NB 42% NB 20% RN 80% RN 58% RN 80% Source: Internal figures and ICEA data 2) Analysis based on the 2016-17 underwriting years. 95 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Loss Ratio Excellence: Risk Selection Pricing - Granularity of risk selection - Investment in talent development Underwriting/ Data/Analytics Antifraud - EU Centre of excellence - More than 200 - Investment in platform underwriting rules governance - European antifraud system External Databases - Strong pipeline of new databases - Enrichment of existing sources 96 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Lean and Customer-Centric: Continuous Improvement Acquisition cost Customer self-service Efficiency and customer experience New Business: Variable Cost per Sale improvements Investing in digitalisation of post-sale processes 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growing more efficiently through continuous reduction in acquisition cost and first year handling cost 97 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Outperformance on Price Comparison Admiral Seguros Click to Sale Click to Sale vs Rastreator Average Evolution on Price Comparison Admiral Seguros Rastreator 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018H1 Growing more efficiently through better conversion of available leads Source: Internal management estimates, Rastreator data 98 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Innovation: Test and Learn Culture New channels Direct marketing quotes New direct traffic acquisition (display, affiliates, social) Testing other channels (partnership +38% +52% +23% and intermediated) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Reforecast New products “Comprehensive Motorbike & Vans Telematics Multicar Collision” 99 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
Summary Stable market context Strong growth in the last two years with increased market share Generating value through differentiation: Loss ratio excellence Lean and Customer-centric Outperformance on price comparison Innovation 100 Admiral Group │ European Investor Day 2018 │ Rome │ 17 September 2018
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