The 1 1 th AI M I nternational W orkshop Feb. 1 9 -2 1 , 2 0 0 6 NI ES, Tsukuba, Japan Activities in the Fiscal Year 2 0 0 5 in Korea Tae Yong Jung (World Bank, USA) Dong Kun Lee (Seoul National University, Korea) So Won Yoon (Seoul National University, Korea) Eun Young Kim (Seoul National University, Korea)
Contents 1. Introduction 1. Introduction 2. General Situation 2. General Situation 3. Current Policies 3. Current Policies 4. Scenario Setting & Results 4. Scenario Setting & Results 5. Conclusion 5. Conclusion
1 . I ntroduction � The deterioration of air quality from rapid industrialization and the soaring number of vehicles on the road is one of the most striking changes that Korea experienced during the process of achieving unprecedented economic and social growth. � The MoE sets up air quality improvement targets on 6 major air pollutants including carbon dioxide, ozone, and particulate matters, but also introduced practical measures to pave the way towards achieving these goals. � Special Measures for Metropolitan Air Quality I m provem ent , a landmark policy that stipulates emission standards, a total air pollution load management system, an emissions trading system, and the supply of low em ission vehicles. � To analyzes the practical policies related to low em ission vehicles scenarios along with projections of key determinants in the transport sector in this area.
2 . General Situation � Air quality in MA (metropolitan area) in Korea : the lowest among the OECD countries � 96% in the rate of the number of ozone warning, 80% in the rate of excess environmental standard of NO2 and 64% of PM are happed in MA ('02) 80 71 T SP(㎍/㎥) NO2(ppb) 70 60 50 40 37 40 30 29 28 25 22 30 20 20 20 10 0 S e o u l ('01) Lo n d o n ('01) P a r i s ('01) T o k y o ('00) Ne w Y o r k ('97)
2 . General Situation � Number of V./ km Road & Travel distance Korea USA England Japan Germany Number of 142 34 84 63 199 vehicle per 1km road Travel distance 21,266 20,313 16,503 10,220 - (km) per one vehicle
2 . General Situation Mega Trend of Car Industry Mega Trend of Car Industry 100% FCV 80% (Fuel Cell Vehicle) HEV 60% (Hybrid Eclectic Vehicle) ICV 40% (Internal Combustion Vehicle) 20% 2000 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2015 Main device each vehicle Main device each vehicle � Engine � Engine � Fuel Cell � small Generator � Motor/Generator � Motor � Battery � PCU(Power Control � PCU(Power Control High Unit) Unit) HEV FCV ICV Engine � Battery/HV Relay � Battery/HV Relay voltage Extinction
2 . General Situation � Comparison with low emission Vehicles Electric V. Fuel Cell V. Hybrid V. H V. 215 350 355(H 350bar) Superior than Mileage(km) general V. Maximum 125 226 140 165 Speed (kph) 495 (ten 960(ten 226(ten Price thousand yen) thousand thousand yen) yen)/ year(leas e cost) Ref. : KISTI(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information) , 2004
3 . Current Policies � Hybrid car – The first Korean-made hybrid car ¥"Click¥" starts operation on November 8, 2004. Four hybrid-powered vehicles were delivered to the Ministry of Environment – Supply plan : ‘04-’06 : 780, � ’07 : 1,195 � ’08 2,195 – The Ministry plans to provide financial assistance of 28 million Korean won in supplying hybrid cars to the Korean National Police Agency, Metropolitan Governments, NGOs, the Ministry of Transportation and Construction, and the Ministry of Health and Welfare.
3 . Current Policies � Comparison between hybrid V. and gasoline V. low emission V. Large Sm all passenger car ( 1 ,4 0 0 cc) passenger Gasoline car Hybrid vehicle ( 3 ,5 0 0 cc) Total (g/ ㎞ ) 0.199(100) 0.315(158) 0.95(477) Air CO 0.160 0.258 0.86 pollutant NOx 0.025 0.031 0.02 Emission HC 0.014 0.026 0.07 Fuel Efficient ( ㎞ / ℓ ) 18.9 13.1 7.2 Air pollutant 3.98 6.3 19 emission ( ㎏ ) Energy use ( ℓ ) 1,058 1,527 2,778 Cost of energy 1,587(100) 2,291(144) 4,167(263) use/ year (1000won)
3 . Current Policies � Natural gas bus – MOE has started operating natural gas vehicles (NGVs) in replacement of diesel buses with long operation length and high emissions discharge. – As of May 2004, 4,876 diesel vehicles were replaced with NGVs, and 20,000 diesel vehicles, which account for 48% of the total diesel vehicles nationwide, will be replaced with NGVs by 2007. – as a policy to control in-use diesel vehicles that are not subject to the replacement, the Ministry is promoting another project to encourage the attachment of Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF) and Diesel Oxidation Catalysts (DOC).
4 . Scenario Setting � Precondition for setting Scenario – Sc 1 : No policy – Sc 2 : FCV R&D � Projection of number of HEV – Sc 3 : Promote HEV � Projection of market share in Korea % projection of number of HEV 120 100 2,500,000 80 2,000,000 60 1,500,000 40 1,000,000 20 500,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 No policy ICV FCV R&D ICV prom ote HEV ICV No policy HEV FCV R&D HEV prom ote HEV HEV no policy FCV R& D Promote HEV No policy FCV FCV R&D FCV prom ote HEV FCV Ref : Market Share - James Sweeney, Stanford University
4 . Scenario Setting � Precondition for setting Scenario – GRDP
4 . Scenario Setting � Precondition for setting Scenario - Population (thousand pop.) 600 12000000 500 10000000 400 8000000 300 6000000 200 4000000 100 2000000 0 e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 0 4 - 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 0 - 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 e 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 v 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 o 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 b 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 m an wom an 1980 m an 1980 wom an 2030 m an 2030 wom an
4 . Scenario Setting � Scenario Setting Scenario Description No change Present share will not change by 2030 compete New car, hybrid car, fuel cell car compete by 2030 HEV Hybrid electric vehicle will take 21.8% shares in 2030 HEV & Hybrid electric vehicle and fuel cell vehicle will take 26%, FCV 7.7% shares in 2030 Promote Ref : Market Share - James Sweeney, Stanford University Hybrid electric vehicle will take 100% shares in 2030 HEV
4 . Scenario Results � Energy Consumption Keep the present (2001) Compete Energy Cons umption Energy Cons umption 10^6 GJ 10^6 GJ 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 CM AL_4 JEEP_1 JEEP_3 JEEP_4 JEEP_5 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LARG_6 LBUS_1 LBUS_2 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M BUS_2 M EDI_1 M EDI_2 M EDI_3 M EDI_4 AIR_1 AIR_2 CM AL_1 CM AL_3 JEEP_1 JEEP_3 JEEP_5 LARG_1 LARG_3 LARG_5 LBUS_1 M EDI_6 M TA1_1 M TA1_2 M TA2_1 M TA2_2 SBUS_1 SBUS_2 SBUS_3 SBUS_4 SBUS_5 SHIP_1 LBUS_3 M BUS_1 M EDI_1 M EDI_3 M TA1_1 M TA2_1 SBUS_1 SBUS_3 SBUS_5 SHIP_1 SHIP_2 SHIP_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_2 SM AL_3 SM AL_4 SM AL_7 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_2 SM AL_1 SM AL_3 SUB_1 TRAN_1 TRAN_2 TRU1_1 TRU1_3 TRU1_5 TRU2_1 TRU3_1 TRU1_3 TRU1_5 TRU1_6 TRU2_1 TRU2_2 TRU3_1 TRU3_2
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