Acceptability of Climate Change Policies A review of the literature - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Acceptability of Climate Change Policies A review of the literature and preliminary results Milan Ščasný , Iva Zvěřinová Charles University Prague, Environment Center Mikołaj Czajkowski University of Warsaw CECILIA2050 Final Conference, Brussels, 30 June 2015

Public acceptability and support: why? Motivation:  Resistance and reluctance to implement policies lacking public support  Can be a factor inhibiting the successful implementation of climate policies (e.g. Steg et al. 2006), e.g., failure to introduce the carbon-energy taxation (France in 2010, etc.) Aim:  Detailed understanding of acceptability of climate change policies

CECILIA2050 objectives and approch Objective – to analyze factors influencing public acceptance:  Characteristics of policies and instruments (economics perspective)  Psychological and individual factors (sociology, social psychology) Approach:  Systematic review of literature  Secondary data analysis (Eurobarometer, ISSP)  Empirical studies designed to investigate social preferences

Insights from the literature review Climate policies more likely to be acceptable by people who …  are aware of the climate changes  feel more responsible for environmental problems  feel a stronger moral obligation to contribute to the solution  perceive the policies to be fair  distribution of costs / environmental benefits  preference for polluter-pays principle  perceive the policies to be effective  temperature increase  % reduction of GHG emissions

Insights from the literature review: other factors influencing acceptance  Environmental identity and concern , concern about climate change and energy security  Perception of effects of policies on people’s lives (threaten people’s freedom of choice)  Knowledge and providing information increase acceptability  Spatial distribution of CO 2 reductions  Mixed evidence on social-demographic factors:  Income (positive), age (negative), education (positive) (Fuiji et al., 2004; Kallbekken a Aasen, 2010 )

Insights from the literature review: tax-aversion Support for Pigouvian taxes may be increased by:  taking into account distributional consequences, especially protecting from regressive effects  trust in government and public organizations (transparency, public participation, etc.; see literature on public governance and public trust)  support acquiring information about how the taxes work, how they can reduce the externalities and increase welfare and about their effectiveness  earmarking the revenues for environmental measures, target narrowly specified groups  public investments in environmentally friendly technologies , transport infrastructure, and renewable energy

Perception of climate change and its causes (%) Q: Please indicate on the scale from -3 to 3 how much do you personally agree or disagree with following statements. The Earth is actually cooling. Climate change does not exist. The major cause of increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is human… Global warming (also called climate change) means that it will be warmer weather everywhere on the… The enhancement of the greenhouse effect is caused by higher levels of CO2 (carbon dioxide) in… The enhancement of the greenhouse effect is caused by a hole in the earth’s atmosphere. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Agree Nor agree or disagree Disagree DK

Public perception of disagreement among scientists about whether or not global warming is happening I do not know enough to say. 11% There is a lot of disagreement among scientists 27% about whether or not global warming is happening. Most scientists think that global warming is not 1% occurring. Most scientists think that global warming is occurring and it is not mainly caused by human 6% activities. Most scientists think that global warming is 55% occurring and the major cause is human activities. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Own 2014 survey (Czech respondents)

Public perception of climate change impacts (%) … will be in general a serious problem for in the Czech 45 22 18 15 Republic as a whole. … will be in general a serious problem for me and my 35 26 22 17 family. … create new business opportunities 27 27 27 19 … negatively affect health and living standards of people in 38 25 20 17 my municipality. … have negative impacts on my own health and well-being. 47 22 17 14 … positively affect food production in the Czech Republic 31 24 31 14 … be a serious problem for other species of plants and 76 12 6 7 animals and their natural habitats … save billions in health care costs in in the Czech Republic 16 15 58 10 due to less winter related diseases and mean less dead … … cause winter temperatures to rise and thus save me 50 21 21 9 money on my heating bills. … cause extreme weather and more natural disasters (e.g. 76 11 7 6 floods or extreme draught) in the Czech Republic. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% agree neither agree nor disagree disagree DK Source: own 2014 survey (Czech Rep)

Perception of the 2020 targets: "about right" 65 three-quarters of people should have a job 63 the sahre of Europeans (%) increase energy efficiency by 20% 61 increase share of renewable energy 59 by 20% 57 research and development investments - 3% of the wealth 55 reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions by 20% 53 reduce the number of people 51 leaving school with no qualifications to 10% 49 reduce the number of Europeans below the poverty line by a quarter 47 40% of the people aged 30 to 34 with a higher education degree 45 (Standard Eurobarometer surveys 2011-13)

Perception of climate change policy targets (in %) "too ambitious" "about right" "too modest" cyp mal swe lux lat aus dk lit el el rom dew cz pol be fr ita cyp uk es lux nl est dee bulg slo nl be ir hun svk bulg cz fin n_ir fr dee uk dk hun por por ir fin fin por svk svk n_ir hun n_ir lit dew slo rom fr ir est dk ita slo dee est dew aus es es nl lat mal cz uk pol be pol ita swe bulg swe lux rom aus cyp mal lat el lit all all all 0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40

Allocation of the EU budget for the next year to reach the objectives by 2020 in the EU (average percentage) The share of funds 40% of the people aged invested in research and 30 to 34 years should development should have a higher education reach 3% of the wealth degree or diploma; 10% produced in the EU each year; 11% The number of Europeans living below To reduce EU the poverty line should greenhouse gas be reduced by a quarter emissions by at least ; 17% 20%; 10% Three quarters of men and women between 20 To increase the and 64 years of age energy efficiency in should have a job; 23% the EU by 20% ; 9% The number of young people leaving school To increase the share of with no qualifications renewable energy in the should fall to 10%; 10% EU by 20% ; 10% Source: Own 2014 survey (Czech Rep)

Acceptability of climate mitigation policies  Acceptability investigated by means of the discrete choice experiments  Respondents presented with a choice of alternative (hypothetical) policies and asked to choose the one they prefer the best  One of the alternatives represents the status quo , i.e. the current policy (no change)  Policies described using attributes which represent their characteristics (e.g., approach, cost distribution, burden sharing, use of revenues)  One of the policy attributes is cost (an increase in one’s cost or expenditures)  The choice typically framed as a referendum to ensure incentive compatibility  Two discrete choice experiments on public acceptability of policies  #1 – how much and when to reduce emissions  #2 – how to reduce emissions

EXPERIMENT #1

Experiment no.2 Emission reduction targets Key features  Policies that may be introduced by the EU in order to mitigate climate change impacts  GHG emission reduction targets at the EU level  Burden sharing across the EU Member States  Cost distribution within countries  Monthly cost to respondent’s household

Reduction targets Information about the EU emission reduction targets 20% reduction by 2020 40% reduction by 2030 80% reduction by 2050 -20% by 2020 -20% by 2020 emissions remain more-less as -40% by 2030 -40% by 2030 GHG volume now, may slightly increase then, remain stable -80% by 2050 ( black dotted line ) (light red line) (dark red line) policy that has been agreed at the EU commitment, measures EU commitment, measures not Policy status EU and is currently implemented not implemented yet implemented yet