AAPA Safety Briefing Martin Eran-Tasker Technical Director Association of Asia Pacific Airlines 10 h COSCAP-NA Steering Committee Guilin, China 13-15 April 2010
Overview • Asia Pacific aviation • Current challenges • Safety • AAPA efforts
AAPA Association of Asia Pacific Airlines • Regional trade association • Current members include 15 major international airlines based in Asia Pacific • Open to all scheduled international airlines based in Asia Pacific region • Committed to promoting sustainable growth of the aviation industry serving both passenger and freight needs • Permanent secretariat headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia • Representation in Washington and Brussels always open to new members
Asia Pacific • Diverse geographic region • Home to 4 billion people - 62% of the world’s population • Generates 27% of global GDP • Wide range of income levels • Dynamic economies leading the global recovery • Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor to economic and social development
Asia Pacific Aviation US$ 128 billion revenue 647 million passengers 421 million domestic 226 million international 15 million tonnes of cargo 4,300 aircraft Asia Pacific carriers overall market share: 29% of global passenger traffic 40% of global cargo traffic Data: 2009 Estimate Source: Combined AAPA + non-AAPA airlines GMT+5 to GMT+12
Improving global economic outlook, led by developing Asian economies • Rebuilding damaged balanced sheets, working towards profitability Aviation projected to lose in 2009 USD 9.4b with USD • 2.8b in 2010 Fuel price remains volatile • Future aviation growth cautiously optimistic •
Airlines response to the downturn • Trimmed route networks and capacity in response to lower demand • Implemented wide range of measures to reduce staff costs, retrenchment as a last resort • Reduced utilisation, grounded surplus aircraft, some deferrals of new deliveries • Conserve cash, strengthen balance sheet • Working with industry partners to reduce unnecessary costs Airlines focused on survival whilst preserving ability to respond to the upturn
Future growth postponed Loss of two years of previously anticipated growth Source: IATA Significant implications for investment and capacity management, throughout the value chain
Long term growth prospects still bright Asia Pacific’s share of world traffic will keep on growing Source: Airbus
Safety
Asia Pacific: regulatory perspectives • Diverse region: multiple governments and regulators • Need for multilateral cooperation • Harmonisation is more about sharing best practices before legislating, not about resolving differences after unilaterally imposed regulations • Positive bias towards consensus, but sometimes slows the process • Institutional framework remains fragmented, although APEC and ASEAN do touch on aviation policy issues Asia Pacific still lacks bloc negotiating power
Safety • ICAO Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme - Low regional compliance to ICAO Annexes • FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment Programme Downgrade to Cat 2 – Indonesia & Philippines - - Others under consideration • EC Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA) • EU Operational ban – “Blacklisting” • Increase in regional ramp inspections • Safety Management Systems – Jan 09 • Media reporting and perceptions
Observations: Safety Performance in 2009 • One of the safest years in aviation history • One major accident for every two million flights • 25% fewer than the average for recent years • One third involved freighter aircraft • One third occurred during the approach and landing phase • One quarter were due to runway over-runs • Only one major accident involving a carrier based in the Asia Pacific region
Aviation Safety – Media Focus
Global Safety Performance Review Industry Safety Record Western-built jet aircraft 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* Major Accidents 18 18 15 14 17 12 2 Accident Rate^ 0.78 0.76 0.61 0.52 0.63 0.46 - Fatal Accidents 5 8 8 7 10 9 1 Fatalities 235 757 549 576 396 414 90 ^ per million sectors * Year to date 5 April
Safety performance – by operator region Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates by Operator Region 2001 - 2009 3-year moving averages 1.80 1.60 Major Accident Rates (per mil sectors) 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 World IATA North America Europe Asia Pacific AAPA
Safety performance – ASPAC region Western-built Jet Aircraft Major Accident Rates Asia Pacific Regional Breakdown 2001- 2009 3-year moving averages 4.50 4.00 Major Accident Rates (per mil sectors) 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Asia Pacific total AAPA P.R. China India Others
AAPA Efforts
AAPA Safety Strategy • Enhance safety in the Asia Pacific region senior management commitment, SMS, cost-effective training – packages/technology, just culture, language proficiency, avoid duplication • Engage regulators and industry safety stakeholders Encourage effective oversight, support the establishment of a regional – safety regulatory body, forums and dialogue sessions – Encourage effective and timely safety investigations Safety data management and analysis • – Develop key safety performance indicators, analytical tools, threat and error management, and risk management assessment tools Communicate on regional safety performance and action plans • – Act as a regional safety spokesman and offer a regional viewpoint
AAPA Safety Focus • Flight Operations Safety Working Group - Meets twice per year - Comprises Heads of Safety - Open door policy to ASPAC carriers • Data sharing, lessons learnt , review of incidents and causal factors • Cabin Safety Task Force - new • Safety Management Systems implementation • Safety surveys • Regional risk assessment
AAPA Safety Focus 2009/2010 • Wildlife hazards - Cost industry USD 1.5b per annum - Problematic airports – DEL – PEN – SGN – BKK - Need for a regional forum • TCAS RA • Ground safety • Runway Safety - Need for a regional forum • Developing a “Just culture” implementation best practice document • Safety Performance indicators • Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar 29-30 Sep 2010 - Venue – Manila - Host Philippines Airlines
AAPA Projects Safety Performance Indicators • Better manage operational safety performance and reduce associated costs • Identify, document, and measure “leading edge” safety performance metrics • Proactive methodology to enable timely identification of escalating risk • Safety performance management tool • Applicable to all SMS Stakeholder organizations • Safety Performance Indicators pilot - Philippine Airlines + 1
Finally • Aviation is at the heart of global economic development • Asia Pacific aviation maintains a very good safety record • Need to strengthen regional safety oversight and make better use of available regulatory resources • Acceptable levels of safety performance can only be achieved through transparency, collaboration and cooperation • Asia Pacific carriers safety performance continues to improve and is comparable to industry standards. • Strong reservations about unilateral imposition of operational bans on airlines, and effects of category downgrading of national authorities Aviation remains the safest mode of transportation
www.aapairlines.org Association of Asia Pacific Airlines 9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa Jalan Sultan Ismail Kuala Lumpur 50250 MALAYSIA Tel: +60 3 2145 5600 Fax: +60 3 2145 2500
Ground Safety
Ground Incidents by Type (33rd vs 34th FOSWG) Aircraft-to-Vehicles Loading Aircraft-to-GSE Types Aircraft-to-Facilities FOD Aircraft-to-Aircraft Others 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Number of Incidents Jul - Dec 2009 Jan - Jun 2009
Ground Incidents by Airport 20.00 Incident Rates (per 1,000 sectors) 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 DEL SFO JNB BOM LAX MXP CDG AMS ANC FRA Airport
TCAS - RA
TCAS Incident Rates by FIR SFO LAX FIR / Aerodrome TPE SIN HKG KUL 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Bird Hazards
Non-Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport DEL TAO SGN HAN Airports CGK PEN PVG BKK LHR SIN 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Damage Bird Strike Incident Rates by Airport JFK FRA Airports HKT KUL SIN 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 Rates (per 1,000 sectors)
Bird Hazards • A number of airports in the region demonstrated consistently high bird strike rate: DEL PEK MNL SGN BKK CGK PEN
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