A winter story Chris Shorts Director S&T, Marketing & Utilization
Market Winter 2017/2018 Commercial overview Update • An unexpectedly harsh cold snap across North America resulted in: • Record gas demand in the U.S. Northeast • Price spikes in constrained market higher than polar vortex conditions in 2014 • The value of firm Dawn-Parkway transport reinforced Significant demand for daily Dawn to Parkway transportation Dawn Parkway transportation traded at a significant premium to firm Storage at Dawn proven essential 30 PJ withdrawn out of Dawn over a 10 day period 2
Ewea Eweather ther Fore Forecast cast Ov Over er Time Time 2017 2017-2018 2018 (+ (+Co Cold lder er/-Wa Warm rmer r than than No Norm rmal) al) Weather forecasts Date Month P Prior Beginning o of Month Actual W Weather highly unpredictable Septemb mber 2017 -20.4% 14.8% -19.2% October 2017 2.4% -16.2% -30.6% Novemb mber 2017 2.6% -2.4% 5.1% Decemb mber 2017 0.4% 16.1% 18.0% 2.6% 15.0% 1.4% January 20 2018 18 1.1% 18.8% -9.6% February 20 2018 18 8.7% -6.7% 6.4% March 20 2018 18 3
Dawn supports increased demand Increasing Supplies into the system 4
Natural Gas Prices at Dawn Extreme Cold Period 5
Ontario Power Generation Supply Mix Dec 2017 – Jan 2018 Cyclone Bomb Natural g gas Dec. 27, 2017 to Jan. 01, 2 2018 helped me meet peak electricity Dec 28, 28, 17 17 Dec 31, 31, 17 17 Dec 29, 29, 17 17 dema mand 4, 4,414 414 MWH 4,232 4, 232 MWH 4, 4,500 500 MWH during the Jan. 02 to Jan. 07, 2018 extreme me weather Jan 06, 06, 18 18 5, 5,022 022 MWH (Source www.sygration.com) 6
Ontario Power Generation Supply Mix July & September 2017 Summer Heat Wave Natural g gas also helps me meet peak dema mand during h heat waves when renewables July 20, 20,2017 2017 July 21, 21,2017 2017 Sept. 23, 23, 2017 2017 Sept. 24, 24, 2017 2017 Sept. 27, 27, 2017 2017 July 19, 19,2017 2017 are not 2, 2,283 283 MW 2,840 2, 840 MW 4, 4,202 202 MW 4, 4,275 275 MW 5, 5,331 331 MW 3,167 3, 167 MW running 7 Source: Sygration
Value of Dawn Continues to Play a Critical Role Dawn • Storage: 8 of historical Top 25 withdrawal days Physical peak on January 1st, 2018 – 4.2 PJ • • Parkway Discharge: 14 of historical Top 25 days • Physical peak December 28th, 2017 – 3.6 PJ • Dawn Sendout: 8 of historical Top 25 Dawn to Parkway sendout days • Physical peak January 5th, 2018 – 6.5 PJ • Net Kirkwall Deliveries and Exports west of Dawn on Vector Pipeline • Dec 27 – Jan 6 Imports at Kirkwall normally 400,000 to 700,000 GJ/d • Union system reliability and flexibility was critical to meet firm demands during extreme cold period 8
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