Transportation Values & Beliefs: A Story of Tough Love Adam Davis, Oregon Transportation Forum Founder & Principal November 10, 2016
PRESENTATION TOPICS I. Context A. General opinion climate B. Environmental quality, economic growth, land use II. Research Findings A. Transportation generally: Where is it on the radar screen? B. Rating transportation infrastructure C. Transportation safety D. Preferred transportation system E. Future of transportation F. Transportation funding, including RUC/VMT; Constitutional Amendment HTF III. Communications – Rules of Thumb IV. Takeaways: The Tough Love DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 2
I. Context
A. General Opinion Climate Context for transportation research findings and communications considerations
The public opinion climate (the full picture) Negativity (cynicism & Skepticism) + Low Awareness and Knowledge = + Anxiety Related To The Economy + Anxiety About Other Problems + Changes In Attitudes & Behavior Related To The Media + Changing Demographics DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 5
Climate conditions: A Category 5 Hurricane DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 6
Climate conditions: A Category 5 Hurricane Photo credit: CNN DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 7
Climate condition 1: Negativity towards politics and government Politics Government Federal State Local DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 8
Climate condition 1: Negativity towards politics and government Multi-Dimensional Waste and inefficiency � � Not getting anything done – Partisan Gridlock � Not getting anything done – Bogged Down In Process � Wrong priorities Controlled by special interests � � Primary season/system (length, closed vs. open) � Not innovative/creative � Not comprehensive/long-range Public employee compensation � � Senseless laws/regulation DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 9
Climate condition 1: Negativity towards politics and government Multi-Dimensional (cont.) � Toothless laws/regulations Threat to personal freedoms � � Lack of diversity/equity � Reduction of government services � Unemployment statistics � Courts nullifying voter passed initiatives � Failure to collect taxes owed � Electoral vote vs. popular vote DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 10
Climate condition 1: Negativity towards politics and government Negative about other institutions, too: � Big businesses/corporations � Public employee unions Media � DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 11
Climate condition 2: Low awareness and knowledge levels DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 12
Climate condition 2: Low awareness and knowledge levels Money management and household finance � � ABC’s of politics, government and public finance – how things work (don’t work) � Public sector’s contribution to quality of life for households and success of businesses � Local, state, national and international: economy, history and geography DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 13
Climate condition 2: Low awareness and knowledge levels of Oregonians don’t know the number of US 47% Senators who represent the state of Oregonians cannot name the three branches of 50% government of Oregonians cannot name any tax that pays for 37% government services DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 14
Climate condition 3: Anxiety related to the economy DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 15
Climate condition 3: Anxiety related to the economy Multi-dimensional � Unemployment � Underemployment � Job security � Sending jobs overseas � Illegal immigrants taking jobs � Lights out manufacturing (technology taking jobs) � Depreciation of home and investment value � Increased competition Credit card debt � � Growing gap between the super wealthy and everyone else � Shrinking middle class � Federal deficit Future of Social Security � DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 16
Climate condition 3: Anxiety related to the economy Multi-dimensional (cont.) � Minimum wage increases � US losing its economic competitiveness � Rising costs/prices: food, college tuition, health care, utility rates � Taxes too high � Too much costly/time-consuming government red tape � Children’s and grandchildren’s economic future � Consumption depleting natural resources and negatively impacting environment GNP vs GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator better) � DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 17
Climate conditions 4: Anxiety about other problems � International � National � State � Local DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 18
Anxiety about other problems Drought HOUSING WIDENING Climate Change Earthquakes & Tsunamis AFFORDABILITY money in INCOME GAP politics Donald Trump Airplane Local Government Traffic student achievement Food And Product Safety Presidency Safety Bankruptcies Congestion Talk Show City/County Services Funding IR IRAN Deteriorating Ethics Violations Transportation, Water & Fear Mongering Egypt Sewer Systems Primary Care Physician Shortages Closed primaries Obesity Gun Control Future of Social Security and Medicare Vladimir Putin Same Sex Marriage Police Salmon Protection War on Drugs Ukraine Marijuana Laws misconduct Child Trafficking Water Shortages Government Water Pollution Surveillance Old Growth Protection Afghanistan Iraq and ISIS US-China Relations Cyber Attacks Pandemics Air Pollution Hanford Nuclear Safety Hillary Clinton Cyber Campaign Finance Population Growth Divide Presidency Obesity Forest fires Domestic Violence Mass Shootings Israel-Palestinian Bullying In Schools Misleading Advertising STUDENT Veterans Benefits Conflict Terrorism DEBT Illegal Immigration North Korea Urban Sprawl High School Child Health Automobile, Bicycle, Mental Illness Drop-out Rates And Safety Pedestrian Safety energy dependency
Climate condition 5: Changes in attitudes/behaviors related to the media DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 20
Climate condition 5: Changes in attitudes/behaviors related to the media Media changes Other Media Issues � Less newspaper readership � Listeners/viewers with � More “information” sources – Internet short attention spans � Faster communication – claims (factual or nonfactual) spread (140 characters) more quickly; nonfactual claims more likely to go � Cyber divide unchallenged Cyber security � � Less coverage of state and local governments and politics � Focus on crime, weather, celebrity, entertainment/sports � Superficial coverage � Focus on the negative and the sensational � Framing: it is all about right vs. left, conservative vs. liberal, R vs. D � 24 hour news cycle DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 21
Climate condition 6: Changing Demographics DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 22
Climate condition 6: Changing Demographics � Population Growth � Aging Population � More Diversity DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 23
Climate condition 6: Changing Demographics Portland Race and Ethnicity Trends: 1970 to 2014 10% of population 10% 8% 6% 6% 1% 5% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% Hispanic Asian African-American Native American Two or more
Public Opinion Climate Storm Damage Climate Conditions ? Negativity + Low Awareness and Knowledge + Anxiety Related to the Economy + Anxiety About Other Problems + Changes in Attitudes and Behavior Relative to the Media + Changing Demographics DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 25
Public Opinion Climate Storm Damage � Less civic engagement Climate Conditions � Less informed participation in the Negativity + Low Awareness and electoral process Knowledge + Anxiety Related to the � Scapegoating, xenophobia, Economy + Anxiety About Other bigotry Problems + Changes in Attitudes and � Hyperpartisanship Behavior Relative to the Media + � Control of politics and Changing Demographics government by special interests and the polarized ends of the political spectrum � !@%%^%%^ Less Civility Little appetite for fee or tax � increases DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 26
Storm Damage At The National Level: A CHANGE ELECTION The President-Elect Photo credit: CNN DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 27
“Government is wasteful and inefficient with our taxes and cannot be trusted to make good decisions.” Agree strongly Agree somewhat Disagree somewhat Disagree strongly 32% 32% 20% 9% DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 28
General Cultural Statements DHM RESEARCH | OREGON TRANSPORTATION FORUM | NOVEMBER 2016 29
Recommend
More recommend
