A PRESENTATION TO The American Chamber of Commerce by SA Politics and Policy Status Quo and Way Forward E-Mail: coenraad.bezuidenhout@fticonsulting.com Tel: +27 82 074 9693 Twitter: @CoenraadB 1
3 Key Drivers in a Defined Institutional Framework Determine our Political & Economic Future Strong Financial & Legal Disaggregation Institutions in labour, Party-List Electoral politics and System socially Political Succession Political party Weak Institutionalisation responsiveness to of Policy and Execution electoral stimuli Social Corporatist model of engagement between business government and labour 2
Where Are We Now? 2016 2017 Rapid Successions • State Capture Alllegations of Capitulations • Nenegate • SOE Boards Critical for President • #FeesMustFall • Abuse of state institutions indicator of Zuma • Nkandla • Policy Climbdowns President’s remaining • Inability to for succession battle policy influence. contest to gain traction in government arena • Toeing Treasury SONA & Budget Line What are the Best likelihood of August 2016 probability for a policy changes Local Government leadership Elections and greater policy change in certainty? government? Competitive ANC Policy • June/July 2017 What Are the leadership Conference Likely succession rather than anointed Leadership Succession Scenarios? ANC Elective • December 2017 Congress • 2018, 2019 & Quo Vadis? Beyond 3
What have we learnt from the ANC policy conference? There was a significant rehabilitation of NDP in ANC policy parlance (result of Radebe being head of ANC policy process?) throughout, but verbatim use of NDP Going into the policy conference, the policy discussion priorities in areas of: documents indicated that policy discussion within the • Agriculture and agro-processing ANC may once again be on a much more rational footing • Minerals and metals • Manufacturing Key area of concern: Consideration of centrality of • Construction and infrastructure Treasury to government programme execution could • Finance lead to further neutering • Retail and business services • Tourism • Public sector employment • Labour market reforms Coming out of the Conference: Zuma faction failed to Proposals around energy draws verbatim on Integrated promote its policy positions. Ramaphosa faction resisted Energy Plan (IEP) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) and well, but failed to put any new proposals on the table or includes tentative exploration of unbundling of advance narrative of future under Ramaphosa as generation and distribution at Eskom President Key thing to remember: ANC Policy Conference took no resolutions on policy, but only made recommendations to structures. 4
Why did President Zuma emerge weaker from the #NoConfidence vote on 8 August? Split in ANC votes unprecedented and ANC has been came despite and weakened by the came despite severe opportunity disincentivisation… #NoConfidence has President already lost • …(1.) of party leadership provided to support of ANC Caucus accountability via pr/list reassociate the since nuclear debate system; and, President with the • …(2.) of removing the +/- October 2015 ANC to the benefit of President because of the instability it could have the opposition, leaving caused in the ANC and by the President weaker extension in the country, by extension possibly in the run up to 2019 election 5
Succession: Where are we? DP Cyril Ramaphosa Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma TG Zweli Mkhize Delegate lists only finalised in Post finalisation of Seven candidates for Formal nominations September: Electoral Chair Baleka delegate lists: ANC Presidency so only open in Prospect of Conference: Possibility of vote Mbete far September gerrymandering in December buying the run-up of finalisation Min Jeff Radebe Min Linidiwe Sisulu Matthews Phosa Strongest anti-Zuma prospects. Likely to draw support from similar constituencies inside ANC. Strongest pro-Zuma prospect. Likely to draw support from similar constituencies inside ANC. Possible interim President, but unlikely to be strong candidate for ANC presidency Positioning for Deputy President Outside candidate 6
Succession: Cyril Ramaphosa vs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma Cyril Ramaphosa Nkosazana Dlamini- Zuma Key Political Advantage Deputy President of the ANC President’s Anointee Political Capital Consensus building Patronage Recent Successes Agreement on wage subsidy AU tenure and labour stability, key endorsements Provinces Limpopo, Gauteng, Parts of Freestate, Mpumalanga, Parts KZN, Eastern Cape, Western of KZN, North West Cape, Northern Cape Structures NEC Woman, Military Veterans Key Present Disadvantage Differentiated messaging Strong momentum in ANC for speaking to key ANC a more rational policy basis constituencies 7
ANC Elective Conference Possible Scenario: A numbers game… Structure 2012 Delegates Ramaphosa Dlamini-Zuma KZN 974 ? ? Eastern Cape 676 x Limpopo 574 x Gauteng 500 x Mpumalanga 476 x Freestate 324 x North West 234 x Western Cape 178 x Northern Cape 178 x Further allocation from 180 1/2 1/2 province governing structures Youth, Women and 135 (45 each) ? ? Veterans NEC 82 2/3 1/3 Total 4511 +/-2800 +/-1700 8
Evolution of Business-Government Cooperation Prior to 1994 After 1994 Response to Social Dialogue Failure • Distrust between business • Social corporatist & government flourished tripartite +1 engagement • Move towards flexible as demands of in NEDLAC cooperation mechanisms progressive business and • Overreliance on high-level such as Joint CEO and black labour came into agreement undermining Presidential Process on conflict with Apartheid bottom-up pact building Minimum Wage state • Failure to contain • Characterised by strong disaggregation due to social dialogue rigid cooperation constituency leadership mechanisms and small group of principals with less rigid mandating processes 9
Conclusion & Way Forward • President Zuma’s faction very weak, but electoral system and ANC stability imperative preventing his removal • Strong possibility of gerrymandering and vote buying despite, there is a good chance of a non-Zuma anointee winning ANC succession • Momentum in ANC to coalesce around a more rational policy platform rather than patronage • Key Concern 1: Treasury • Key Concern 2: Institutional reform to support growth (electoral system and social dialogue) • Key Concern 3: Corruption – New approach required 10
Thank You Coenraad Bezuidenhout Head of Public Affairs and Government Relations Advisory at FTI Consulting 082 074 9692 coenraad.bezuidenhout@fticonsulting.com Twitter: @CoenraadB
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