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A data-driven approach to dynamic face-to-face contacts in structured populations Günter Schneckenreither Information and Sofware Engineering Vienna University of Technology Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 1 / 24

Spread of infectious diseases Aim Increase the fidelity of simulations by implementing new data-driven models. Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 2 / 24

Spread of infectious diseases Aim Increase the fidelity of simulations by implementing new data-driven models. ⇒ Structured Population = ⇒ Interaction patterns = ⇒ Disease characteristics = Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 2 / 24

Spread of infectious diseases Aim Increase the fidelity of simulations by implementing new data-driven models. ⇒ Structured Population = ≈ Topology ⇒ Interaction patterns ≈ Transport = ⇒ Disease characteristics ≈ = Reaction Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 2 / 24

Spread of infectious diseases Evolution of epidemiologic models Topology Transport Reaction homogeneous abstracted interaction simplified disease population compartments along aggregated interaction multiple disease stages social dimensions individual-based extrapolated interaction models Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 3 / 24

Spread of infectious diseases Evolution of epidemiologic models Topology Transport Reaction homogeneous abstracted interaction simplified disease population compartments along aggregated interaction multiple disease stages social dimensions individual-based extrapolated interaction models additional heterogeneous pairwise interaction structures Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 3 / 24

Spread of infectious diseases Evolution of epidemiologic models Topology Transport Reaction homogeneous abstracted interaction simplified disease population compartments along aggregated interaction multiple disease stages social dimensions individual-based extrapolated interaction models additional heterogeneous pairwise interaction structures ⇒ Race availability of data vs. model capabilities! = Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 3 / 24

A new data-driven approach 1. Demographic data = ⇒ statistical population 2. Socioeconomic data = ⇒ structured population model 3. Dataset on self-reported close proximity contacts ⇒ equip individuals with interaction patterns according to their attributes = 4. Pairwise matching ⇒ connect pairs of ego-centric contact information into interaction links = 5. Time dependent instantiations ⇒ to simulate dynamic interaction = Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 4 / 24

Demographic and socioeconomic data work places Austria administrative structure number and size per district, age distribution of employed population geographic information school classes district 1 district 2 number and size per district, age distribution depending on size municipalities households number and size per district, age distribution depending on size school school school work work work house- house- house- class class class place 1 place 2 place 3 hold 1 hold 2 hold 3 1 2 3 allocation to households allocation to work places same municipality, geographic proximity, individuals age distribution within size of work place, households depending on size age distribution individuals allocation to school classes number per municipality, geographic proximity, age 0 1 2 count, age, sex per district size of school classes, age distribution of students f m sex Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 5 / 24

Demographic and socioeconomic data Dataset: Statistics Austria Sampling of individuals and blocks ⇒ intersection of multiple statistical data sets = Person Household Schoolclass Workplace age size size size gender age distribution age distribution age distribution income school-type municipality district district district Allocation of individuals into blocks = ⇒ first optimization problem Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 6 / 24

Self-reported contact patterns Dataset: [POLYMOD, FP6, SSP22-CT-2004-502084] Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., Massari, M., Salmaso, S., Tomba, G.S., Wallinga, J., Heijne, J., Sadkowska-Todys, M., Rosinska, M., Edmunds, W.J.: Polymod Social Contact Data. Zenodo (2017). ego (paticipant) age, gender household size, employment, school type, ... alter age, gender characterization periodicity, duration, physical contact, ... regime during work, at home, in school, ... data errors, missing values, inconsistencies, only sub-population covered, ... Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 7 / 24

Self-reported contact patterns 1. Interpolate and extrapolate reported contact patterns Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 8 / 24

Self-reported contact patterns school work 1. Interpolate and extrapolate reported contact patterns other 2. Assign contact patterns to persons ⇒ second optimization problem = home leisure Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 8 / 24

Self-reported contact patterns school work 1. Interpolate and extrapolate reported contact patterns other 2. Assign contact patterns to persons = ⇒ second optimization problem home leisure 3. Match contact patterns into pairs = ⇒ third optimization problem Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 8 / 24

Summary Data-driven implementation Theoretical model 1 1 W W 2 H 2 4 H 4 3 3 H H 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 S S H H 9 9 Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 9 / 24

Summary Data-driven implementation Theoretical model 1 1 W W 2 H 2 4 H 4 3 3 H H 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 S S H H 9 9 Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 9 / 24

Summary Data-driven implementation Theoretical model 1 1 2 2 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 9 / 24

Summary Data-driven implementation Theoretical model 1 1 2 2 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 9 / 24

Summary Data-driven implementation Theoretical model 1 1 2 2 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 9 / 24

Discussion Structural observations Contact network � = Social network • Face-to-face contacts can be instantiations of social ties. • Random contacts are not induced by social relations. • Social relations can persist without physical contact. Block structure plays an important role • Organizational blocks vs. emerging communities. • Individual contact behavior is mainly driven by social communities. • Random contacts are “weak ties”. Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 10 / 24

Discussion Dynamics on multiple time-scales Time-scale Network layer and Mechanisms / simulation data node creation and deletion (births, deaths, life-time nodes migration) creation and allocation of new blocks decades social structure (household, workplace) creation of new blocks, block swapping years social structure (workplaces and schoolclasses) months, social ties, contact new links, alteration, deletion weeks patterns days contact patterns sampling of random contact patterns temporary instantiation of face-to-face hours contacts contacts Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 11 / 24

Static analysis Topological characteristics of instantiated contacts degree distribution clustering coefficient distribution ● 1e+05 frequency frequency ● ●● ALL DAILY ● DAILY WEEKLY ● 1.5 ● ● WEEKLY RANDOM ●● ● ● RANDOM count (logarithmic) ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 1e+03 density 1.0 ● ●● ● ● ● ● ● 0.5 ● ● ● ● ● 1e+01 ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 0.0 0 25 50 75 100 0.01 1.00 degree clustering coefficient (logarithmic) • Aggregated degree distribution is exponential. • Clustering predominantly in high frequency contacts. Günter Schneckenreither F2F contacts in structured populations 2019-10-08 12 / 24