2/ 24/ 2017 A CHANGING LOS ANGELES: LATINO COMMUNITIES AND OUR ECONOMIC FUTURE MANUEL PASTOR @Prof_MPastor 02.22.17 1
2/ 24/ 2017 Changing Demographics, California, 1980‐2040 100% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 9% 11% 90% 13% Other 14% 14% 15% 19% 80% 25% Native American 70% 8% 32% 38% Asian/Pacific 40% 7% 60% 43% Islander 45% 50% Latino 6% 6% 40% 6% Black 5% 67% 5% 30% 57% White 47% 20% 40% 37% 34% 30% 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Changing Demographics Los Angeles County, 1980‐2040 100% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 6% 10% Other 12% 14% 14% 90% 14% 14% 80% 28% Asian/Pacific Islander 70% 37% 45% Latino 60% 48% 12% 51% 54% 56% 50% 11% Black 40% 9% 8% 30% White 8% 53% 8% 7% 41% 20% 31% 28% 25% 22% 10% 20% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2
2/ 24/ 2017 IMMIGRATION AS A (NON-) FACTOR Immigrant Share of the Population, United States, California, and Los Angeles County, 1860-2014 45% 40% Los Angeles 35% 30% California 25% 20% 15% U.S. 10% 5% 0% 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 Change in Youth Population by Race/Ethnicity U.S. and Los Angeles County, 2000‐2010 White Black Latino API Other 50% 39% 40% 31% 31% 30% 20% 10% 0% U.S. Los Angeles ‐2% ‐10% ‐6% ‐3% ‐8% ‐10% ‐20% ‐23% ‐30% ‐29% ‐40% 3
2/ 24/ 2017 Median Age by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles County, 2010‐2014 Other or mixed race 26 Latino 29 Black 38 Asian/Pacific Islander 41 White 45 Native American 45 All 35 WHO STAYS? Share of Those Aged 25‐45 Who Were Born in California and Are Still Living in California, 2015 Asian Pacific Islander 82% Latino 80% African American 70% Non-Hispanic White 60% 4
2/ 24/ 2017 THE LEGACY OF IMMIGRATION 40% I mmigr ant Shar e of Population, Califor nia, 2010-2014 10,072,681 35% 3,113,819 7,408,103 30% 38,366,950 3,379,311 25% 4,087,626 4,375,038 20% 5,930,372 15% 10% 5% 0% Rest of Central Valley Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Border Bay Area Total California THE LEGACY OF IMMIGRATION U ndo c umente d Shar e of I mmigrant Population, California, 40% 2010-2014 339,649 35% 316,425 30% 266,149 962,150 254,735 204,703 25% 506,677 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Rest of Central Valley Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Border Bay Area California 5
2/ 24/ 2017 LATINOS IN LOS ANGELES Latino Ancestry Population % Immigrant Mexican 3,125,469 39% Salvadoran 356,970 62% Guatemalan 230,138 64% Honduran 45,698 64% Nicaraguan 34,089 69% Peruvian 30,207 67% Puerto Rican 28,716 0% Cuban 28,433 48% All other Latinos 919,652 34% Total 4,799,372 42% 6
So urc e : U CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY Mississippi Arkansas Louisiana D.C. S Ce nsus Alabama Florida Oklahoma Tennessee Kentucky South Dakota New Mexico Texas Missouri West Virginia Georgia South Carolina Virginia North Carolina Household* Gini Coefficient, 1969 North Dakota Kansas New York Nebraska Arizona Iowa Montana California Minnesota Rhode Island Alaska Colorado Idaho Oregon Illinois Wyoming Maryland Massachusetts Delaware New Jersey Pennsylvania Hawaii Vermont Connecticut Washington Ohio Wisconsin Nevada Maine Michigan Utah Indiana New Hampshire 2/ 24/ 2017 7
So urc e : U CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY CHALLENGE OF INEQUALITY So urc e : I District of Columbia New York Connecticut 10th Percentile ‐25% Louisiana S Ce nsus PU California MS Massachusetts Florida ‐11% Rhode Island Texas Income Percentiles, Earned Income for Full‐Time Workers 25‐64 ($2010) Tennessee Georgia New Mexico Illinois 20th Percentile Mississippi ‐23% Alabama New Jersey U.S. and Los Angeles County, 1980‐2010* North Carolina ‐10% Los Angeles County Arkansas Ho useho ld Gini Co effic ient , 2014 Kentucky South Carolina Pennsylvania Arizona North Dakota 50th Percentile Oklahoma ‐11% Virginia Ohio Missouri ‐7% Oregon Michigan Kansas United States Maine Colorado West Virginia 80th Percentile Montana 4% Washington Idaho Minnesota 6% Delaware Maryland South Dakota Indiana Iowa Nevada 90th Percentile New Hampshire 13% Vermont Wisconsin Nebraska 17% Hawaii Utah Wyoming Alaska 2/ 24/ 2017 8
2/ 24/ 2017 PERSISTENT RACIAL GAPS Percent of Families Living Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles County 1990 2010‐2014 38% 36% 30% 29% 26% 20% 18% 18% 11% 8% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific All Islander PERSISTENT RACIAL GAPS Percent of Full‐Time Workers age 25‐64 Below 150 Percent of the Federal Poverty Line by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles County 1990 2010‐2014 13% 11% 7% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% White Black Latino Asian/Pacific All Islander 9
2/ 24/ 2017 Educational Requirement for New Jobs in California and Educational Attainment (of Adults 25‐64) by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles County 2010‐2014 11% 21% 22% 5% 31% BA or 41% 5% higher 18% 51% 4% 10% AA 8% degree 9% 25% Some 36% 31% 22% college 8% HS 25% Diploma 16% 21% Less than 25% 41% HS 14% 35% 19% 18% 10% 11% 5% New Jobs* White Black Latino API All THE FUTURE’S SO BRIGHT . . . NOT 10
2/ 24/ 2017 A COMMON AGENDA Percent Using Public Transit by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles County, 2010‐2014 White Black Latino Asian/Pacific Islander Other 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% <$15,000 $15,000‐$35,000 $35,000‐$65,000 >$65,000 A COMMON AGENDA Percent Rent Burdened by Race/Ethnicity Los Angeles County, 2010‐2014 Black 65% Latino 63% Other 55% White 54% Asian/Pacific Islander 54% All 59% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 11
2/ 24/ 2017 A BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY? Self‐Employment Rates by Race, Ethnicity, and Immigration, Los Angeles County, 2010‐2014 % Self‐employed among employed population ages 16+ 30% Native Born Immigrant 25% 25% 19% 20% 16% 14% 15% 13% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 5% 5% 0% Non‐Hispanic Black Latino API Other White A BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY? Latino‐owned Firms as a Share for All Firms with Owners Identified by Ethnicity, Los Angeles 2012 35% 29.6% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10.6% 10% 8.6% 6.4% 5.7% 5% 0% Share of all firms Share of firms w/ Share of Share of receipts Share of payroll employees employees Source: 2012 Survey of Business Owners. 12
2/ 24/ 2017 LATINO SHARE OF THE ELECTORATE LA County Total Population, 2009 to 2013 48% 48% Voting Age Population, 2009 to 2013 44 44% Citizen Voting Age Population, 2009 to 2013 35% 35% Registered to Vote, 2014 General Election 32% 32% Voted, 2014 General Election 23% 23% Source: CSII analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the UC Berkeley Statewide Database . 13
2/ 24/ 2017 LOOKING FORWARD Understand that this is an aspirational not just an angry constituency Stress that equity and inclusion are fundamental not add-on’s Commit to immigrant integration –it’s everyone’s business Work to build not just economic but civic leadership Stress that the Latino agenda is the Los Angeles agenda – y lo contrario – so the future is shared 14
2/ 24/ 2017 FOR MORE . . . @Prof_MPastor 15
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