A A mu multi ti-ti tiered ADCI d ADCIRC-ba based s d storm rm s sur urge a and w nd wave predict ction sy system Brian Blanton, Renaissance Computing Institute, UNC-Chapel Hill Rick Luettich, Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, co-PI Jason Fleming, Seahorse Coastal Consulting, ASGS developer, ADCIRC Bootcamp organizer Jessica Smith, Department of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, MS Candidate Graduate Student Chris Calloway, Renaissance Computing Institute, UNC-Chapel Hill, software engineer Crystal Fulcher, Institute of Marine Sciences, UNC-Chapel Hill, ADCIRC grid development CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Ma Main Project Activities • Extend/advance Adcirc Surge Guidance System (ASGS) • Implement new ADCIRC grid for more comprehensive regional coverage • Statistical/probabilistic hurricane tracks • Statistical storm surge predictions • Support ADCIRC users world-wide CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
End User Engagement ADCIR AD CIRC C Boot Bootcamp • Dr. Jason Fleming , Seahorse Coastal Consulting • Held at US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) Coastal and Hydraulics Lab (CHL) in Vicksburg, MS • 2-4 May 2016 • Main topics: Grid development with SMS • ADCIRC setup, simulations, and diagnostics • Deploying the ASGS for forecasting applications. • • 50+ in-person and 7 virtual via webinar • 8 students attended : 9 professionals: • Stantec x3 • North Carolina State University x2 • Taylor Engineering • University of Central Florida • Woods Hole Group • Kunsan University (Korea) x4 • • Florida Department of Environmental Protection RPS Group • • Applied Technology & Management Ransom Environmental • USACE ERDC CHL • CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
End User Engagement Hu Hurri rricane e Ma Matthew • Dr. Brian Batten , Dewberry, supporting FEMA • Inundation grids for post-storm damage assessments • UNC computed a ”rapid” Matthew hindcast with GAHM vortex model and observed track • “In the development of FEMA’s North Carolina Matthew Geospatial Damage Assessment, ASGS’s Hurricane Matthew simulation was found to provide the best source of surge elevations as compared to observations. The RENCI Matthew surge elevations were used to establish flood depth information to facilitate initial building damage assessments to aid the FEMA disaster response by Dewberry under their Department of Homeland Security Remote Sensing Contract for Incident Management.” CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
End User Engagement Hu Hurri rricane e Ma Matthew • Doug Bausch , Science Advisor, Pacific Disaster Center, Hawaii • “I know it is a busy time, but we are supporting our colleagues in the Bahamas (NEMA and other agencies) and are very interested in your products. Specifically the ADCIRC surge modeling…..” • FEMA HQ • ADCIRC output more relevant than NHC’s output for recovery purposes CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
End User Engagement Win Winter Storm m Activitie tivities • Science & Operations Officer, NWS Newport/Morehead City NC • Recent winter storm Helena • "It appears the ADCIRC underestimated the water levels at CG Hatteras today, by roughly 0.5 ft." • “Thank you for quickly getting NC CERA back online on Friday evening. A collection of tide hydrographs from 3 sites subject to water level rises in N/NNW/NNE wind events is also attached. CERA seemed to perform within about 0.5 ft of observations at Hatteras Village. We have a NC state run gauge at Cedar Island that is currently malfunctioning, so we did not get any observations there where CERA mostly focused the highest surge potential for this event.” CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
End User Engagement Inland flooding rea In each ching coastal area eas • Senior Hydrologist, NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center • Sabine River and Pearl River flooding • “ As this flood approaches the Gulf in East Texas, it’s getting out of our domain. As well as significant impacts happening in Orange Texas that have no real modeling available and really should be performed by a coastal model . Is there any thoughts or plans or possibly any completed runs that can be performed in ADCIRC? “ • We were able to provide guidance information from ASGS running on the Gulf of Mexico to “unanticipated” end-users. CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments ADCIRC grid NOAA HSOFS Grid (1.8M nodes) • Implemented NOAA HSOFS grid for ASGS prior to Hurricane Matthew • Provided by NOAA CSDL • Comprehensive US East coast and GoMex coverage • Considering splitting the grid into east coast and Gulf of Mexico parts. CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation Hurricane Isabel (2003) All Models • Generated our own SQL database of all hurricane forecast models , aligned with best-track times • Enables comprehensive error analysis CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation 9x9 ensemble set for Hurricane Isabel (2003) • Generated our own SQL database of all hurricane forecast models , aligned with best-track times • Currently using cross and along track errors for OFCL model • This is an extension of Davis et al (2010), who used only cross-track errors Davis, J. , Paramygin, V., Forrest, D., and Sheng, Y. (2010). Toward the probabilistic simulation of storm surge and inundation in a limited-resource environment. Mon. Weather Rev., 138 (7):2953–2974. See poster by J. Smith, presented at AMS 2017 Student Symposium in Seattle CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation • Real-time Matthew Experiments • NHC Consensus +/- Direction and speed errors CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation • Real-time Matthew Experiments • NHC Consensus +/- Direction and speed errors • Individual Ensemble Members • “Left” members more threatening CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Probabilistic track generation • Real-time Matthew Experiments • NHC Consensus +/- Direction and speed errors • Individual Ensemble Members • “Left” members more hazardous • Exceedence Levels indicate GA/SC coast substantially threatened CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Surrogate Model for ADCIRC (ADCIRC_Lite) Least Squares, Response Surface (ADCIRC_Lite) Kriging Artificial Neural Networks Storm Population CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Web deployment of Statistical Model • Previously developed Response Surface Method statistical model deployed to web for dissemination • dashboards.renci.org:3000 • Allows concurrent, multi-user access CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Research Work and Accomplishments Web deployment of Statistical Model • Previously developed Response Surface Method statistical model deployed to web for dissemination • dashboards.renci.org:3000 • Allows concurrent, multi-user access • Change parameters of model via sliders • Radius to Max Winds • Forward Speed • Etc. CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
An Anticipa pated d Project Im Impac pact • ADCIRC/ASGS End user outreach, education, and support • Broaden use of critical hazard assessment method • Advanced, state-of-the-science real-time storm surge and wave predictions • via ASGS, CERA web outlets • More comprehensive regional coverage of ADCIRC grid • Enable alternative, rapid, probabilistic water levels • Currently targeted at NC coast for high-resolution CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
Pr Proposed Follow-on on Wo Work • Continue ASGS and ADCIRC grid development, education, and outreach • Support end-users during tropical (and non-tropical) events • Extend probabilistic track generator to incorporate intensity (maximum wind speed and central pressure) and storm size (radius to maximum winds) parameters • Integrate track generator with Web dashboard CRC 2nd Annual Meeting The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Feb. 1-3, 2017
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