8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #1 Successful people constantly read or somehow improve their knowledge • Bill Gates 50 books per year • Mark Zuckerberg 1 book every other week • Warren Bu ff et apparently reads 5-6 hours per day • Mark Cuban said, that if he buy a book for $30 and he get only one idea from it, it was a good investment • We all know, that most bettors don’t invest any time, money or e ff ort to improve betting skill. Most of them are looking for picks only. There is no way that this kind of mindset will help anyone to make money in sports betting. • The more you learn, the more you earn. The more you invest in yourself, the more money you make.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #1 How I did it? • Start paying attention on how to control my mind. • Stop watching games (unless you bet live…this is waste of time) • Reading books, watching seminars, learn and simply investing time, money and e ff ort to improve myself as a person and bettor.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #1 • Market is smarter • Bookmakers are smarter and improve every year • Technology is better • There is no chance that anyone can survive on the long run without improving every year. Not in betting, not in any other business. Period. • When I started to understand the importance of this, things changed quickly in a positive way.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (Pre-Model) STEP # 2 Understanding the concept of value and making profit
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #2 • Invest in something with big potential • You should not pay more than you want to pay • To do this, you need to understand the market and prices • In sports betting prices = odds • You need to estimate your price and compare it with market price
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #2 • Let me show you an example… • Lakers have a true chance of winning 70% of all games • Fair odds = 1.43 (US odds = -233) • They look like a winner right? • Will you bet on them?
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL 70% looks good, huh?
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #2 • Depends on the odds you get… • So we expect that Lakers win 70 and lose 30 games (lets say this is true) • If you bet on Lakers at the odds below 1.43 (let’s say 1.20), you will win 70 games and lose 30 … = -16 UNITS • You will only win with the Lakers if you get better odds than 1.43 (let’s say 1.60), you will win 70 games and lose 30 … = +12 UNITS
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL The price is always the key. Even if you have a team that has 90% of chance to win a game and even if you would get this information from GOD itself,… the other team would still win 1 out of 10 games. And you don’t know if this is the next game.
Price (odds) = key • The same game, di ff erent price • If you bet $100 at 1.91, you make a profit of +$91 • If you bet $100 at 1.69, you make a profit of +$69 • Big di ff erence
54.50% Win Rate SAME BET / PLAY / PICKS • 1.91 (-110) = +4095 • 1.83 (-120) = -265 • 1.69 (-145) = -7895
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #2 HOW I DID IT? • I started analysing games and building my own models and methods that gave me the answer about the odds (price) • I project my odds • I compare my price with bookmakers • I bet (invest) when I find the value. • I bet on games where my winning percentage are higher than bookmakers winning percentages • I learned this concept very quickly. Unfortunately most bettors still struggle with this simple concept. • Without understanding this simple concept, no model can help you, because all models are based on finding +EV. • Remember - there are no winners. Only +EV or nothing. If you don’t have your price you can not find +EV.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (BUILD THE MODEL) STEP # 3 DEFINE A PROBLEM
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #3 What do you want to accomplish? • Many bettors fail to define what is the goal of the model • You must be specific what you want • You need to ask the basic questions: who, what, when, where, why, and how. • You must have an idea of what problem the data, that you will collect later needs to solve
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (BUILD THE MODEL) STEP # 3 SELECT THE “TOOL”
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #4 SELECT THE TOOL • You will need some tool to collect data • Analyse data • do the “math” thing
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #4 THERE ARE COUPLE OF SUCH TOOLS • Excell • Python • R • Google Sheets • …
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #4 WHICH ONE I USE AND WHY? • I use Google Sheets • It is FREE • I have good results with the model • it is the most simple to use • An average bettor will not learn python, because it is too complex • But anyone can learn Excel or Google Sheets
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #4 DON’T GET ME WRONG… • I always encourage to learn as much as possible • Go with the tool you want and the tool you think you can master it • But Google Sheets is perfect for most bettors and this is what I teach • It is easy to learn and easy to understand • It is free
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (BUILD THE MODEL) STEP # 5 COLLECT DATA AND ANALYSE IT
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #5 • You will need the data to include into the model • With the data you will analyse games based on what happened in the past • The goal is to predict what can happen in the future • which will be described in terms of probabilities
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #5 here is the example from baseball…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #5 ERA vs xFIP Wade LeBlanc Jon Gray ERA: 0.60 ERA: 4.84 xFIP: 4.42 xFIP: 2.42
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #5 HITTING vs LHP/RHP RED SOX DIAMONDBACKS vs RHP: 5.94 vs RHP: 3.72 vs LHP: 3.84 vs LHP: 4.70
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #5 • Stick to important data • Ignore noise • Use big sample size • help with regression analysis
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #5 batting avg wBOA
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (BUILD THE MODEL) STEP # 6 FIND MATH/STATISTICAL METHOD
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #6 • This is where math knowledge and statistical knowledge comes into a play • This is one of the hardest things for most bettors • I saw bettors trying to use the same math method for all sports, which is wrong
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #6 • Betting model doesn’t necessary be ultra complex • Overcomplicating is bad if you don’t do it right • I had great results with simple models too • All my models started as simple models • And then started upgrading them • I recommend to keep it simple at the start and then start building on that
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (BUILD THE MODEL) STEP # 7 BUILD A MODEL
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #7 • Once you complete all these steps, you build a model • You know exactly what you want • You collected the data • You analysed the data and stick focus on meaningful data, that will give you expected results • add the math • Put all together in the tool you selected for this • Calculate probabilities, lines, percentages,… • Find the +EV
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL (BUILD THE MODEL) STEP # 8 TEST THE MODEL & MONITOR RESULTS
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #8 • I always test results when I create new betting model • One of the first quick tests you can make is to project the odds and compare with bookmakers odds • If the odds are completely di ff erent and you get unrealistic numbers, then something is wrong
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #8 • Either you use too small sample size of data • Wrong math/statistical method • Wrong data • or any other mistake in the process • But good indicator is always comparing the odds with bookmakers odds. They must be similar. • You can not constantly project that your team has 90% of chance and bookmakers give them only 40%.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL STEP #8 • I pay attention how the model do against closing odds • and of course if the model makes profit
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL #1 BONUS Jump to practical…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL IT THEN COMES DOWN TO.... • Updating stats • Improving • Adjusting • Looking for the value • Betting / Re-Investing
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL …words from on of our members “What you’ve put together here with the NHL, the NBA, is awesome! I enjoy inputting lineups … I’m finding not to be lazy about them because its makes a di ff erence in the lines. I’m especially excited what you have for College BB… I would think that would be a di ffi cult task. But what you’re doing lately , I have all the faith. Way to Go MB…. I’m in the right place with you!”
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL And you know what • There is not many bettors in The World who have the knowledge or ability to get the odds before they (which is crucial in the first place if you want to be a long term winner) • It is a complete new level of betting, when you calculate the numbers with the betting model. No guessing anymore.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL A BIG TIP... You don’t want to try to figure this out on your own unless you LOVE wasting time/money/energy.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL THE CRAZIEST THING I CONSTANTLY HEAR… I will figure it by myself is one of the most stupid thing I hear all the time.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL A BIG TIP... Time is the most valuable asset in our life. Today you exactly know how much money you have. But you never know how much time left you have on this World.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL A BIG TIP... It is much easier to make $1000 (Summer Job) Than spending year by year constantly losing in sports betting or trying to figure it by yourself with experiments, errors,… believe me!
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL A BIG TIP... I was learning on my own mistakes… but back then there was no such thing as a practical video betting course or betting training.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL and if you are still not sure if investing in your betting knowledge is good investment…remember that
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL AND PLEASE PLEASE REMEMBER… • Nothing today I’ve shared with you is theory or ‘might’ work. • This is exactly what I’ve done finally started build models that showed profitable results. • But more importantly, I’ve helped now hundreds of people all over the world create their own betting models. • It doesn’t matter if you don’t have success in sports betting or you still struggling with putting together your betting model…remember it is all about knowing what to do and taking action.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL I’M NOT SURE WHY YOU SHOWED UP HERE TODAY BUT MY GUESS IS YOU ARE IN ONE OF THE FOLLOWING SITUATIONS: • You are constantly losing Money in sports betting. Bettors lost thousands of dollars, euros without even knowing how much they lost during all these years. • Sick of paying for monthly subscriptions for sports picks, which are at the end not profitable at all. • Sick of being a follower • You struggle with building your own betting model. • Rookie Bettor • You want to do better
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL IF THERE’S ONE THING TO TAKE AWAY... I’ve found the way how to build simple models in sports betting and I made a profit. And it has literally changed my world. And the world of my students. It is VERY MUCH a replicable system/knowledge that you can apply (as proven by my students). And you can change your betting experience forever and start winning. •
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL SO THE OBVIOUS QUESTION IS... How can you apply this ‘system’ and start handicapping your own games? You have a choice (isn’t life all about choices, eh?) You can do it slow. ..using trial and error, taking some of what I’ve shared today Or you can do it quickly (and CORRECTLY) by joining our premium betting course and learn today.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL WHEN IN DOUBT… I ALWAYS REMBER THESE WORDS LEARN FROM OTHER PEOPLE’S MISTAKES, LIFE IS TOO SHORT TO MAKE THEM ALL YOURSELF .
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL WHAT IS A JOURNEY PREMIUM BETTING COURSE?
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL WHAT IS A JOURNEY (PREMIUM) BETTING COURSE? This is the #1 betting course where one handicapper si willing: • To share The knowledge he gained in his betting career (+20 years) • To Show you on real examples (practical) how to build a model (not just a book or theory) • To give you all his betting models to download and to use for yourself
I do what most other betting sites don’t do! • I show you how to start using simple statistics • I turn followers into handicappers • I give access to my private betting models / formulas • I create smart betting community, where the focus is long term success! • I’ve created something I would buy, when I started betting. This would save me a lot of money and more importantly TIME.
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL WHAT IS A JOURNEY (PREMIUM) BETTING COURSE? • Proven step-by-step system. With the students we have built many great models and we are constantly upgrading. • Designed to take you by the hand to create, build & profit from your own betting model. • It’s the absolute fastest way to get from being a FOLLOWER to HANDICAPPER
MEANING…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL smart shurtcut… ...as opposed to spending years of expensive trial & error, trying to do it on your own -Proven Step-By-Step Strategies -I share with you my private Models & Templates -Support -Lifetime Access
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL 7 CORE MODULES • #1 It All Stats With The Right Mindset • #2 Understanding Betting Market • #3 Betting Basics and Strategy • #4 First Steps into creating a model • #5 Google Sheets Basics • #6 Sports Betting Models • #7 How I make money in Sports Betting
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #1 - MINDSET • What is the right mindset • How our brains work (dopamine) • Why we need to exclude emotions • What kind of books I read • What other technique I practice to keep focused, motivated and calm • and much more…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #2 - UNDERSTANDING BETTING MARKET • How the market operates • Understanding Sports betting World • What is important to become a winning bettor • Why you should never follow other people’s picks and exposing some of the problems in Sports Betting World • Why lines move • and much more…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #3 - BASICS AND STRATEGY • What are the odds • What is probability • Wy not parlay • Margins, Yield, ROI • Basic statistics • and much more…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #4 - FIRST STEPS INTO CREATING A MODEL • Linear Regression • Logistic Regression • Probabilities • Likehood • Multiple regression • Kelly Criterium • Practical videos in sheets • Much more…
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #5 - GOOGLE SHEETS BASICS • First steps into using google sheets • Explaining useful functions • Formulas • Usabilty • Much more..
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #6 - BETTING MODELS • MLB • NHL • NBA • NFL • CBB • International Basketball • Soccer • eSports • Much more coming
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL • 1208-1176, +113.20 • more than +$10,000 with baseball bets since 2016 • The best bets (high value plays) are beating the lines more than 70% of times with CLV around 3%
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL • Dime bettors made $110,300 with baseball in last 4 season
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL • The best plays beat the line more than 70% times
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL MODULE #7 - HOW I BET AND HOW I MAKE MONEY • I will show you how I bet • How I make money • What is the business model behind it (how I re-invest betting profits,…) • You can join my journey and be part of our business model
8 STEPS TO BUILD A PROFITABLE SPORTS BETTING MODEL INCLUDED IN COURSE / MEMBERSHIP SHEETS, DOWNLOADS & MY PERSONAL BETTING MODELS All to make your journey even easier, faster and more awesome. Cool?
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