7. CLOSURE The Kashmir earthquake of October 8, - PDF document

� � � � � � � � � 7. CLOSURE The Kashmir earthquake of October 8, 2005 inflicted a heavy toll on lives and livelihoods in a large region in northern Pakistan, Kashmir and even parts of northern India. It is in an active tectonic region where the Indian plate subducts under the Asian plate, creating an arc of high seismicity that was responsible for major earthquakes in the past. Whilst the earthquake had a magnitude of 7.6, the capability of the faults in the Himalayan region is for earthquakes of magnitude > 8.0, of which several are expected in the future. This Quicklook report gives a review of the damage and other consequences of the earthquake directly from the observations of the MAE Center-Rice University Team, as well as summarizes selected previous reports. Whereas definitive recommendations await further in-depth studies and interactions with authorities and researchers in Pakistan, the following preliminary recommendations for priorities and action are offered at this early stage: Hazard Development of a national instrumentation program to deploy, operate and maintain a dense network of digital acceleration recording stations that covers not only the northern regions but the entire Pakistani territory, as well as a mandatory requirement for instrumenting all new projects with a minimum of sensing stations for the collection of vital response data. Development of a micro-zonation program for areas of (i) special soil conditions, (ii) in the vicinity of large steep slopes, and (iii) on significant ridges. Undertaking comprehensive seismic risk assessment studies using probabilistic hazard analysis (PSHA), deterministic studies for critical sites (DSHA), and time-dependent seismic hazard assessment, leading to nationally accepted hazard maps. Urban and Rural Planning Development of a comprehensive multi-scale land use management policy and grand plan to gradually move population, business and infrastructure systems away from regions of the highest exposure to natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. Clearing congested old town centers gradually to widen streets and provide access to emergency services, and to construct using modern techniques, materials and codes of practice. Implementation of planning permit guidelines to influence characteristics of buildings and bridges to reduce amplification effects taking into account site conditions and topography. Development or adoption of a loss assessment software tool that is used in regional and national scenario loss assessments for the purposes of planning of response, stockpiling of required equipment and recruitment of necessary personnel. Design and Construction Development of two levels of codes for design, one for detailed design of important facilities and large civil infrastructure projects, based on the latest technologies and international experience adapted to Pakistan, and the second as a set of ‘deemed-to-satisfy’ codes using local practice, regional languages, pictorial-visual presentations and no calculation requirements, for small family residences and similar structures, using indigenous materials. Implementation of hierarchical, self-monitored, strict construction authorization procedures. This should include continuous control of all construction and concurrent penalties on defaulting, non-conforming and random housing. 42 Mid-America Earthquake Center Mid-America Earthquake Center

� � � � � � � � � � � Mandating earthquake resistant design according to the published codes. Development of codes for seismic resistance of infrastructure and lifeline systems. Increasing the use of tunnels to reduce the impact of earthquakes on the transportation network in the mountainous regions. Use of the most advanced tunnel design and construction practice to increase the reliability of tunnels as vital components of the transportation systems. Social Impact Reduction Development of special policies for design and construction for critical facilities, primarily schools, hospitals, emergency response centers, power generation, water supply, gas supply and similar facilities critical to the operation of a complex societal system. Mandating of disabled access provisions in all civil infrastructure works. Planning of disabled support and rehabilitation centers taking into account the current distribution of residences of the large population of disabled citizens from the Kashmir earthquake. Development of medium and long-term plan for widowed women and orphaned children in terms of a continuous and accessible support structure for rehabilitation, education and integration in other families. Legislation Backing up all the above by rigorous legislative structures and clear frameworks for adherence. Legislating for a complete and comprehensive framework of emergency management professionals at the local, regional and national levels, and a clear reporting mechanism, alongside a tiered emergency preparedness plan. Establishing a ‘Disaster Fund’ that is used to provide emergency relief, and that is funded by a modest tax on new projects. Such funds have precedence and experience should be gained from other countries on this issue. The above list is not comprehensive and is subject to further refinement and articulation as more information becomes available and the needs are better defined. The investigative work continues at the MAE Center and Rice University and a detailed report including several case studies will be issued in due course. 43 Mid-America Earthquake Center Mid-America Earthquake Center

8. ACKNOWLEGEMENTS The MAE-Rice University Team is greatly indebted to many individuals and organizations in Pakistan for their assistance in making this visit possible and successful. First and foremost, sincere thanks are due to Dr. Sohail Naqvi, Executive Director, the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, for facilitating the visit, arranging all necessary contacts, and providing invaluable support and advice. Special gratitude is also due to Maj. General Imtiaz Ahmad, Brig. Omar Farooq, Brig. Khalid Shad and Maj. Mahmood Alam of the Pakistan Army Corp of Engineers for their logistical support during field surveys in Muzaffarabad and the valuable discussions on rehabilitation and long-term earthquake preparedness effort. The Team also acknowledges Maj. General Farrukh Javed, Chairman, National Highway Authority, for arranging a presentation to NHA engineers. Thanks are also due to Mr. Riaz A. Khan, Member, WAPDA, who very kindly arranged for accommodation at the WAPDA Rest House in Islamabad and helped in obtaining the ground motion record at Tarbela Dam, and to Brig. Sikander of the Frontier Force for accommodating the team at the Pfiffer Mess in Abbottabad. Mr. Hamid Mahmood, Director, Directorate of Structural Design, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, kindly provided the strong-motion data analyzed in the report. The team would also like to express their sincere gratitude to Mr. G. R. Baluch, the Consul General of Pakistan in Houston for promptly issuing the visas and to Mr. Abbas Hassan of Halcrow, Pakistan, and the Geological Survey of Pakistan for providing means of transportation during the visit. Gratitude is expressed to Dr. Khurram Afridi and his staff at LUMS for their assistance in arranging a meeting with the LUMS faculty and Mr. Karamat Ullah Chaudry, Managing Director/President of NESPAK for visits to his offices in Lahore and Islamabad. Professor Nicholas Ambraseys of Imperial College, London, provided most valuable information and advice before, during and after the field mission, drawing on his long experience in Pakistan and especially his knowledge of the northern regions. Dr. Roger Bilham, University of Colorado, provided insight and explanation of the source mechanisms. Dr. Charles Scawthorn, of Kyoto University, provided his first-hand knowledge of the affected area. His contribution is gratefully acknowledged. This mission was funded by the Mid-America Earthquake Center, a National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center funded under grant EEC-9701785. Administrative arrangements for the mission were aided by Deidre Bever, Sue Dotson and Sarah Challand, of the University of Illinois and the Mid-America Earthquake Center. Finally, members of the team who were visiting Pakistan for the first time would like to express their heartfelt gratitude for the tremendous hospitality and kindness they were accorded by both private citizens and public officials during the visit. Special thanks are due to Messrs Anwar Ahmad Khan and Imran Khan for your generosity and hospitality. 44 Mid-America Earthquake Center Mid-America Earthquake Center