2020 Census: Ci+zenship, Science, Poli+cs, and Privacy Perspec+ves from the Na+onal Academy of Sciences’ (NAS) CommiBee on Na+onal Sta+s+cs (CNSTAT) James S. House Angus Campbell Dis+nguished University Professor Emeritus of Survey Research, Public Policy, and Sociology University of Michigan And Member, NAS CommiBee on Na+onal Sta+s+cs. 2012-2018 October 31, 2018
KEY (oUen unrecognized) ASPECTS of U.S. FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (FSS) 1. FSS derives from and hence is inherently enmeshed with our poli+cal system, e.g., U.S. Decennial Census (“Enumera+on”) mandated by Ar+cle I, Sec+on 2 of U.S. Cons+tu+on under aegis of Congress for purposes of appor+oning Representa+ves and Taxes (conducted by U.S. marshals overseen by Secretary of State from 1790 thru 1840 and special decennial census offices from 1850 thru 1900, and since 1903 by Census Bureau) Other FSS sta+s+cal agencies established in major departments or agencies to fill specific needs (e.g., Bureau of Labor Sta+s+cs between 1884 and 1913 or Energy Informa+on Administra+on in 1977)
KEY (oUen unrecognized) ASPECTS of U.S. FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (FSS) (cont.) 2. Each FSS principal agency receives Congressional and Execu+ve branch oversight, and the Directors of 3 are Presiden+al appointees (though rest of Directors and staffs are civil service appointees) The following figure illustrates the organiza3onal posi3on of the principal sta3s3cal agencies and other recognized sta3s3cal units
Congressional Reporting Authority, Parent Department/Agency to Statistical Agency (Head) Appropriations (Box indicates Presidential Appointee with Senate Confirmation; italic type indicates authority chain for Subcommittee Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act [CIPSEA]-recognized statistical unit) Economic Research Chief Economist Service Secretary of (Administrator) Agriculture / Under Secretary for Deputy National Agricultural Research, Statistics Service Education, and (Administrator) Agriculture Economics National Animal Under Secretary for Director, Animal and Deputy Health Monitoring Marketing and Administrator, Plant Health System Program Regulatory Programs Inspection Service Veterinary Services Unit (Chief) Bureau of Under Secretary for Economic Analysis Secretary of Economic Affairs, (Director) Commerce / Economics and Deputy Statistics Census Bureau Administration (Director) Commerce, Assistant Attorney Justice, Bureau of Attorney General / Associate General, Science Justice Statistics Deputy Attorney General Office of Justice (Director) Programs National Center for Director, Social, Behavioral, Science and National Science and Economic Engineering Foundation / Deputy Sciences Directorate Statistics (Director) Energy and Energy Information Secretary of Energy / Administration Water Deputy (Administrator) Development Statistical and Director, Office of Administrator, Office Science Policy Deputy Director for Management and of Information and Financial Office, OMB Management Budget (OMB) Regulatory Affairs Services and (Chief Statistician) General Director, Research, Government Commissioner, Statistics of Income Secretary of the Applied Analytics, Internal Revenue Division, IRS Treasury / Deputy and Statistics / Service (IRS) (Director) Deputy
Interior, Environmental Assistant Office of Environment, Protection Agency Administrator and Environmental and Related Administrator / Chief Information Information Agencies Deputy Officer (Chief Statistician) Bureau of Secretary of Labor / Labor Statistics Deputy (Commissioner) National Center for Secretary of Director, Institute of Education Statistics Education / Education Sciences (Commissioner) Under Secretary Director, National Center for Director, Centers for Coordinating Center Labor, Health Health Statistics Disease Control and for Health and Human (Director) Prevention Information and Services, Secretary of Health Service Education, and and Human Related Services / Deputy Administrator, Agencies Center for Substance Abuse Behavioral Health and Mental Health Statistics and Services Quality (Director) Administration Commissioner, Office of Research, Deputy Social Security Evaluation, and Commissioner for Administration / Statistics, SSA Retirement and Deputy (Director) Disability Policy Transportation, Housing and Bureau of Urban Secretary of Assistant Secretary Transportation Development, Transportation / for Research and Statistics and Related Deputy Technology (Director) Agencies Division of Research Board of Governors Microeconomic and Statistics of the Federal Surveys Statistical (Director/Deputy Reserve System Unit (Director) Director/Senior Associate Director)
KEY (oUen unrecognized) ASPECTS of U.S. FEDERAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM (FSS) (cont.) 3. Since 1972 all federal sta+s+cal agencies receive advice and counsel from CNSTAT of the NAS, including regular publica+on of Principles and Prac-ces for a Federal Sta-s-cal Agency hBps://www.nap.edu/catalog/24810/principles-and- prac+ces-for-a-federal-sta+s+cal-agency-sixth-edi+on (preceding figure based on Figure 1.2 of P&P )
Principles for a Federal Sta+s+cal Agency • Principle 1: Relevance to Policy Issues: A federal sta+s+cal agency must be in a posi+on to provide objec+ve, accurate, and +mely informa+on that is relevant to issues of public policy. • Principle 2: Credibility among Data Users: A federal sta+s+cal agency must have credibility with those who use its data and informa+on. • Principle 3: Trust among Data Providers: A federal sta+s+cal agency must have the trust of those whose informa+on it obtains. • Principle 4: Independence from Poli3cal and Other Undue External Influence: A federal sta+s+cal agency must be independent from poli+cal and other undue external influence in developing, producing, and dissemina+ng sta+s+cs. [ added in latest (2017) edi;on]
Prac+ces cri+cal for the effec+ve, principled opera+on of a sta+s+cal agency: 1. a clearly defined and well-accepted mission, 2. necessary authority to protect independence, 3. use of mul+ple data sources for sta+s+cs that meet user needs, 4. openness about sources and limita+ons of the data provided, 5. wide dissemina+on of accessible and easy-to-use data, 6. coopera+on with data users, 7. respect for the privacy and autonomy of data providers, 8. protec+on of the confiden+ality of data providers’ informa+on, 9. commitment to quality and professional standards of prac+ce, 10. an ac+ve research program, 11. professional advancement of staff, 12. a strong internal and external evalua+on program, and 13. coordina+on and collabora+on with other sta+s+cal agencies.
ONGOING CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION TO ADDITION OF CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS A. BACKGROUND 1. Varied ques+ons related to ci+zenship/birth origins asked in 1820 and 1830, 1870, and 1890 – 1950 (and in 1960 only for and at the expense of New York and Puerto Rico). 2. In 1970 Census divided into a very brief short-form (circa 10 Qs) for all households, and a long-form asked only in a probability sample of 15-20% of households, which included ci+zenship/birth origin ques+ons. 3. AUer 2000, the long-form was replaced by the ongoing American Community Survey , providing more con+nuous data down to local levels of aggrega+on—including a single standardized ques+on on ci+zenship
ONGOING CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION OVER ADDITION OF CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS (cont.) B. CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION OVER 2018 COMMERCE DEPARTMENT DECISION TO “RESTORE”/ADD CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS AS LAST OF 11 QUESTIONS – 1. Proposed, but not yet passed, Congressional legisla+on – 2. Lawsuits in Federal Court (coming to trial in New York in November, pending appeal to U.S. Supreme Court to delay) – 3. Official and unofficial concern/opposi+on via normal channels and ongoing comment processes, including: – 4. CNSTAT/NAS “task force” leBer report, as response to Federal Register no+ce of data collec+on in the 2020 census: hBps://www.nap.edu/catalog/25215/leBer-report-on- the-2020-census
ONGOING CONCERN, CONTROVERSY, AND OPPOSITION TO ADDITION OF CITIZENSHIP QUESTION TO 2020 CENSUS (cont.) C. MAIN ARGUMENTS FOR CNSTAT OPPOSITION – 1. No need: “ACS already meets the stated need [vo+ng rights enforcement] for ci+zenship data.” – 2. Impairment of Quality of 2020 Census: “Adding the ci+zenship ques+on without proper tes+ng [which is not possible] will impair the quality of the 2020 Census as a whole” [e.g., ques+on adequacy/validity, public coopera+on/ nonresponse, cost] – 3. Viola+on of exis+ng statutes and mission of Census Bureau: “Adding the ci+zenship ques+on . . . using the method described in the Secretary’s memo would create a new popula+on register which . . . could not, under current law, be used for nonsta+s+cal purposes . . . [e.g., law enforcement] and s+ll comport with the mission of the Census Bureau.”
CONCLUSION • When you vote for President, Senators, Representa+ves in the House, Governors, and State Legislators, think not only of the courts/SCOTUS, but also of the Federal Sta+s+cal System (and state and local analogues thereof) • And see Karlan, Pamela S., Reappor+onment, Nonappor+onment, and Recovering Some Lost History of One-Person, One Vote (August 22, 2017). William & Mary Law Review, Forthcoming; Stanford Public Law Working Paper. Available at SSRN: hBps://ssrn.com/abstract=3028237 or hBp://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3028237
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