Torino Process 2018-2020 LVIV 25 October 2019
THE TRIANGLE OF ANALYSIS ISSUES POLICIES ASSESSMENT 2 Torino Process 2018-20
THE ETF ASSESSMENT • Human capital development issues, for example: • Demographic development • Education attainment • Labour market performance • Education sector reforms and policy responses • Main government strategies and reform initiatives • New legislation and policies related to VET and skills development • ETF assessment • How VET policies fit with the overall developments and “big picture” • Main areas and topics which require immediate attention and action 3 Torino Process 2018-20
SELECTED HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON UKRAINE Indicator 2013 2017 2018 Total Population (,000.000) 45,37 42,41 42,22 Relative size of youth population (age group 15- 16.7 13.7 13.2 24, %) Data source: ETF KIESE
SELECTED HUMAN CAPITAL INDICATORS ON UKRAINE (1) Population structure (%) Year 0-24 25.9 25-64 2015 58.2 65+ 15.9 0-24 26.0 25-64 2025 55.1 - 3,1% 65+ 18.8 (2) Average years of schooling 2017 11.3 (3) Expected years of schooling 2017 15 (4) Learning-adjusted years of schooling 2017 10.2 (5) Adult literacy 2015 99.8 Data source: ETF KIESE
DECREASING YOUTH POPULATION Share of youths (0-24) in the population 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Republic of Moldova Ukraine 2011 2014 2017 Data source: ETF KIESE
HIGH AND IMPROVING EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Proportion of 30-34 year olds having completed tertiary education, 2017 (%) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 EU-28 Ukraine (¹) Georgia Moldova Armenia (²) Azerbaijan Data source: Eurostat
RELATIVELY HIGH ACTIVITY – 2007-2017 IN UKRAINE ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT RATES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY DECLINING Employment rates (15-64) Activity rates (persons aged 15-64), 2017 EU-28 EU-28 Armenia (¹) Armenia Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Belarus (²) Belarus Georgia Georgia Moldova Moldova Ukraine (³) Ukraine (¹) 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 2017 2012 2007 Data source: Eurostat
LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES BY EDUCATION LEVELS, 2017 Data source: National statistics 2017
EXCESS LABOUR SUPPLY RELATIVE TO DEMAND, BY EDUCATION, 2005 – 2017 250 % 200 % 150 % 100 % 50% Data source: WB calculations based on LFS data 0 % Tertiary university Short-cycle tertiary Secondary education Primary education education (ISCED 5A/6) education (ISCED 5B) (ISCED 2-4) (ISCED 1) 2005 2010 2015* 2017*
HIGHER LEVEL OF EDUCATION HELPS COMBAT THE POVERTY Poor Not poor, but below the national average Around the national Average Fairly well off Well off Data source: School to work transition study, 2016
EDUCATION LEVEL OF MIGRANTS BY DESTINATION COUNTRY 100 % 11 % 13 % 16 % 16 % 26 % complete higher 80 % 19 % 18 % education 17 % 17 % basic higher or 19 % incomplete higher 60 % 24 % education 34 % 34 % vocational 46 % 24 % 40 % general secondary 36 % education 2 5 % basic secondary or 35 % 20 % 30 % 20 % primary education 6 % 2 % 3 % 2 % 9 % Data source: SSSU, LFS 0% 2017 Poland Russia Italy Population* Labour migrants
KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS • Decreasing working age and youth population • Higher education remains popular because it provides the best labour market outcomes and seems to be still the best way to combat poverty and unemployment • Skills mismatch – underutilisation of skills due to “overeducation” – people with higher education background work in semi-skills occupations • Difference in wage premium is insignificant at secondary VET level, pre- tertiary and basic higher education (bachelor) in similar fields of studies • Limited trust and confidence in vocational qualifications vs HE diploma • Increasing migration in recent years – skilled workers with VET background move for better jobs and working/living conditions (particularly to Poland) 14 Torino Process 2018-20
NUMBER OF GRADUATES OF VOCATIONAL AND TECHNICAL SCHOOLS, COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES, 1990 – 2013 Data source: Kupets, 2016
EVOLUTION OF VET INSTITUTIONS AND PARTICIPATION Year Number of Number of students Share related to Students per Share related to 1990 institutions 1990 institution (thousands) 1990 1246 643,400 100% 516 100% 2000 970 524,600 82% 541 105% 2010 976 433,500 67% 444 86% 2013 968 391,200 61% 404 78% 2017 756 269,400 42% 356 69% 2018 736 255,000 39,6% 347 67% Data source: SSSU 2018, data excludes VET institutions in Crimea and territories in Donetsk and Luhansk regions which are not controlled by the Ukrainian government
SELECTED DATA ON PROFESSIONAL PRE-TERTIARY EDUCATION 2010/2011 2015/2016 2018/2019 Percentage Number of institutions 483 387 370 Number of students 351,444 230,110 199,926 Enrolled after 9 th grade 147069 73.60% Enrolled after 11 th grade 52857 26.44% New enrolment 35101 33963 Enrolled in junior specialist 96.76% programmes Enrolled in bachelor programmes 1138 3.24% Source of funding per number of students (%) National budget 36.3 36.0 13.5 Local budget 21.8 28.1 52.6 Private tuition fees 33.9 41.8 35.6 Enterprises 0.1 0.3 0.0 Data source: MOES 2018
EDUCATION: PUBLIC SPENDING OR INVESTMENT? Public expenditure on education as a share of GDP, 2007-2017 (% of GDP) 7 6 5 4 Ukraine (¹)(²) 3 2 EU-28 (¹) 1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 • Out of 6 % of GDP spent on education, 2.8 % of GDP went to general secondary education, 1.3 % to higher education institutions, 0.9 % to preschool and early childhood education and 0.3 % to VET. Data source: Eurostat
ACCESS TO QUALITY LEARNING 70 175 170 60 165 50 160 155 40 150 30 145 140 20 135 10 130 0 125 Urban Rural Urban Rural State-funded places Privately funded contract places Number Average EIT score : WB calculations based on EDEBO database. Source
KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS • Number of enrolments decreasing at all levels of education • Number of education providers also decreasing at all levels of education but the average size per student raises concern on efficiency and high costs • High expenditure in education (6% of GDP + 1% of private expenditure) raises concerns on efficiency and maintenance of large institutional networks • Convergence of secondary VET and pre-tertiary professional education – majority of enrolments after 9 th grade • High selectiveness of the education system and rural/urban disparities raise equity concerns 20 Torino Process 2018-20
21 Torino Process 2018-20
ISSUES ON LIFELONG LEARNING Indicator 2017 2018 Participation in training/lifelong Total 0.8 0.8 learning (age group 25-64) by sex Male 0.8 0.9 (%) Female 0.8 0.7 Source: SSSU, LFS data • Low participation in lifelong learning – EU average 11.8% (2018), lowest participation in Romania 0.9%, EU 2020 benchmark target 15% 22 Torino Process 2018-20
KEY POLICY RESPONSES IN 2014-2019 • New legislation: • Law on HE in 2014 • Law on Education 2017 • Law on Professional Pre-Tertiary Education 2019 • In the pipeline: Law on General Education & Law on VET • Policies affecting VET and skills development • Decentralisation of VET to regional level • New Ukrainian School concept • Concept on Modern VET until 2027 • Concept of Dual VET (2018-2019) • Government Programme 2019-2023 23 Torino Process 2018-20
KEY ISSUES EMERGING ON THIS • Law on Education (2017) provides strategic framework for education sector reforms • The Law stipulates a new structure for the entire education system but it’s aligned with old institutional framework • Potential risks or problems: education sub-systems vaguely connected with each other and focus on resolving their own specific problems - fragmentation • Missing? : A holistic policy to develop a new lifelong learning system where different parts of the education system are well integrated with fair and harmonised rules and principles which guide the policy implementation for the benefit of learners, economy and society 24 Torino Process 2018-20
THE WAY FORWARD – POSSIBLE OPTIONS Integration of provision at upper secondary level after 9 th grade • Horizontal – secondary VET and general secondary education • To create attractive pathways to both academic and vocational tracks without institutional barriers in line with the New Ukrainian School concept • To reduce stigma related to VET and segregation of young learners at early age to increase VET participation • To develop an alternative matriculation exam to replace EIT as an obligation for VET graduates to enrol in higher education 25 Torino Process 2018-20
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