2017 YEAR-END/Q4 INITIAL RESULTS EEAC Consultants ► February 28, 2018
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY HIGHLIGHTS ► This presentation summarizes EEAC consultant team analysis of 2017 Initial Year-End/Q4 results* ► Key 2017 highlights: − Electric and gas programs both exceeded the benefits goals − Programs exceeded ambitious statewide electric savings goals and got close to achieving statewide gas goals − Elec. lifetime savings higher than Plan and higher than 2016 − Higher electric lifetime savings in C&I and low income compensate for slightly lower-than-Plan Residential savings − Gas lifetime savings slightly lower than Plan 2 years in a row − Electric and gas program spending are both lower than Plan − Less-than-Plan spending is partly due to too-high Plan costs − Exploration of total energy impacts using MMBTUs (all-in energy impacts in 2017) *Presentation follows the PA presentation on 2017 results (please see the PA slides for that summary) www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 2
SUMMARY OF 2017 YEAR-END/Q4 SAVINGS, BENEFITS, AND COSTS Portfolio Amount Percent of Goal Annual Savings (MWh) 1,574,249 115% Electric Lifetime Savings (MWh) 14,163,025 106% Summer (kW) 228,530 118% Benefits ($) $2,117,290,650 102% Expenditures ($) $529,191,850 85% Portfolio Amount Percent of Goal Annual Savings (Therms) 93% 26,621,107 Gas Lifetime Savings (Therms) 97% 368,345,795 Benefits ($) 105% $572,111,131 Expenditures ($) 92% $205,089,544 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 3
MOST BENEFITS WERE HIGHER THAN PLANNED IN 2017 2017 Electric and Gas Program Benefits ($ Millions) 3,000 2,500 2,000 $ Millions 1,500 Planned 1,000 Q4 2017 500 ‐ Total Benefits Electric Non ‐ Resource Gas Benefits Other Benefits Benefits Resource Benefits www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 4
Q4 2017 LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS BY PA CLC Eversource National Grid Unitil Total Goal (MWh) 551,223 6,921,944 5,855,737 92,568 13,421,472 Residential 201,747 1,803,115 2,455,409 14,797 4,475,067 Low Income 18,219 140,373 179,727 2,558 340,877 Commercial 331,257 4,978,456 3,220,601 75,214 8,605,529 Q4 2017 (MWh) 415,146 7,164,299 6,515,226 68,354 14,163,025 Residential 244,093 1,706,133 2,412,894 17,296 4,380,416 Low Income 17,118 182,872 217,313 1,424 418,727 Commercial 153,935 5,275,294 3,885,018 49,634 9,363,881 % of Goal 75% 104% 111% 74% 106% Residential 121% 95% 98% 117% 98% Low Income 94% 130% 121% 56% 123% Commercial 46% 106% 121% 66% 109% www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 5
Q4 2017 LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS BY PA Berkshire Columbia Eversource Liberty National Grid Unitil Goal (Therms) 8,767,313 72,311,764 88,703,021 6,171,632 200,605,484 4,247,602 Residential 3,024,132 37,994,448 32,607,267 3,219,280 103,475,602 1,290,695 Low Income 788,995 7,304,702 7,180,499 724,936 24,472,280 432,211 Commercial 4,954,186 27,012,615 48,915,254 2,227,415 72,657,601 2,524,696 Q4 2017 (Therms) 5,877,061 57,323,979 91,060,498 6,249,826 204,576,346 3,258,084 Residential 2,455,360 37,481,735 31,499,599 3,541,016 97,402,045 723,416 Low Income 841,512 7,187,148 7,833,634 566,102 29,087,380 512,678 Commercial 2,580,189 12,655,096 51,727,265 2,142,708 78,086,921 2,021,990 % of Goal 67% 79% 103% 101% 102% 77% Residential 81% 99% 97% 110% 94% 56% Low Income 107% 98% 109% 78% 119% 119% Commercial 52% 47% 106% 96% 107% 80% www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 6
2017 Q4 ELECTRIC SUMMARY: 2017 ANNUAL RESULTS (12/12 MONTHS) Residential Low ‐ Income Commercial & Industrial Total 154% 143% 132% 133% 132% 126% 123% 118% 117% 115% 114% 106% 109% 106% 102% 98% 94% 95% 92% 92% 85% 84% 84% 82% Participants Program Costs Capacity Savings Annual Energy Lifetime Energy Benefits Savings Savings www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 7
2017 PROGRAMS ACHIEVED HIGHEST ANNUAL SAVINGS Portfolio Annual Electric Savings 1,800,000 3.36% of Sales 1,600,000 1,400,000 2.93% 1,200,000 of Sales 1,000,000 Evaluated ‐ Portfolio MWh Planned ‐ Portfolio 800,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Portfolio 600,000 400,000 200,000 ‐ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 8
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS OVER TIME Portfolio Lifetime Electric Savings 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 Evaluated ‐ Portfolio MWh 10,000,000 Planned ‐ Portfolio 8,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Portfolio 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 ‐ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 9
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS OVER TIME BY SECTOR Lifetime Electric Savings by Sector 14,000,000 12,000,000 Evaluated ‐ C&I Planned ‐ C&I 10,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ C&I 8,000,000 Evaluated ‐ Residential MWh Planned ‐ Residential 6,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Residential 4,000,000 Evaluated ‐ Low ‐ Income Planned ‐ Low ‐ Income 2,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Low ‐ Income ‐ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 10
CHP SA VINGS AND SHARE OF C&I SECTOR V ARIES GREA TL Y; CHP HIGHER IN 2017 VS 2016 Achieved Savings % of C&I Sector Lifetime Savings 4,500,000 45% 39% 4,000,000 40% 3,500,000 32% 35% % of C&I Sector Savings Net Lifetime MWh 3,000,000 30% 26% 2,500,000 25% 2,000,000 20% 16% 15% 1,500,000 15% 10% 1,000,000 10% 4% 500,000 5% 1% 0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 11
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC COST TO ACHIEVE OVER TIME Portfolio Lifetime Electric Cost to Achieve $0.050 $0.045 $0.040 $0.035 Evaluated ‐ Portfolio $/kWh Planned ‐ Portfolio $0.030 Q4 2017 ‐ Portfolio $0.025 $0.020 $0.015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 12
ELECTRIC COST TO ACHIEVE: CONSULTANT RECOMMENDATION Portfolio Lifetime Electric Cost to Achieve $0.050 $0.045 $0.040 Evaluated ‐ Portfolio $0.035 $/kWh Planned ‐ Portfolio $0.030 Q4 2017 ‐ Portfolio Consultant Estimate $0.025 $0.020 $0.015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 13
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC PROGRAM SAVINGS IN MMBTU Portfolio Electric Program Lifetime Savings in MMBtu 50,000,000 99% 45,000,000 88% 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 MMBtu Planned 25,000,000 20,000,000 Actual 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 ‐ 2016 2017 (Q4) www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 14
2017 Q4 RESIDENTIAL LIFETIME ELECTRIC PROGRAM SAVINGS IN MMBTU 2017 Residential Electric Lifetime Program Net MMBtu 25,000,000 Fuel Oil Propane Natural Gas 20,000,000 15,000,000 MMBtu 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Electric Savings Reduced Fossil Increased Fossil Net Total Fuel Usage Fuel Usage www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 15
2017 Q4 PORTFOLIO LIFETIME ELECTRIC PROGRAM SAVINGS IN MMBTU 2017 Portfolio Lifetime Electric Program Net MMBtu 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 MMBtu Additional effects: 30,000,000 C&I Gas (w/CHP) C&I Fuel Oil 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 Electric Savings Reduced Fossil Increased Fossil Net Total Fuel Usage Fuel Usage www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 16
2017 Q4 GAS SUMMARY: 2017 ANNUAL RESULTS (12/12 MONTHS) Residential Low ‐ Income Commercial & Industrial Total 120% 119% 113% 110% 105% 105% 105% 105% 101% 98% 97% 97% 95% 94% 93% 93% 92% 91% 88% 71% Participants Program Costs Annual Energy Lifetime Energy Benefits Savings Savings www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 17
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS OVER TIME Portfolio Lifetime Gas Savings 450,000,000 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 Therms 250,000,000 Evaluated ‐ Portfolio 200,000,000 Planned ‐ Portfolio 150,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Portfolio 100,000,000 50,000,000 ‐ www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 18
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME GAS SAVINGS OVER TIME BY SECTOR Lifetime Gas Savings by Sector 200,000,000 180,000,000 Evaluated ‐ C&I 160,000,000 Planned ‐ C&I 140,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ C&I 120,000,000 Therms Evaluated ‐ Residential 100,000,000 Planned ‐ Residential 80,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Residential 60,000,000 Evaluated ‐ Low ‐ Income 40,000,000 Planned ‐ Low ‐ Income 20,000,000 Q4 2017 ‐ Low ‐ Income ‐ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 19
PORTFOLIO LIFETIME GAS COST TO ACHIEVE OVER TIME Portfolio Lifetime Gas Cost to Achieve $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $/therm $0.40 Evaluated ‐ Portfolio $0.30 Planned ‐ Portfolio $0.20 Q4 2017 ‐ Portfolio $0.10 $0.00 www.ma-eeac.org 2017 Year-End/Q4 Results | 20
THANK YOU Questions? ► February 28, 2018
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