2016 FEED-IN TARIFF ALLOWANCE RATE APPLICATION EXPOSITORY PRESENTATION Pasig, March 8, 2016 DINNA O. DIZON Head, FIT-All Team National Transmission Corporation
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION I. Background II. FIT-All Rate Determination III. Status Update 2
I. BACKGROUND 3
FIT-ELIGIBLE RE PLANTS as of February 24, 2016 Capacity for FIT Plant Type Number (MW) Solar 6 68.08 Wind 7 426.9 Biomass 6 69.33 Run of River 3 25.93 Hydro TOTAL 22 590.24 4
RE PLANTS with RE Payment Agreement (REPA) as of February 24, 2016 Plant Type On Process** Effective REPA Signed REPA* No. MW No. MW No. MW Solar 6 68.08 6 244.44 7 105.27 Wind 7 426.90 - - - - Biomass 6 69.33 6 70.1 - - Run of River 3 25.93 1 1.80 - - Hydro TOTAL 22 *** 590.24 13 316.34 7 105.27 *Includes REPA signed by both parties/being routed for signature of TransCo/those being notarized at TransCo **Includes REPA currently being signed by RE developer and applications for REPA with lacking documents *** Of the 22 REPAs, FIT billings for 20 REPAs have commenced 5
PAYMENT OF FIT REVENUES Total generation billed as of December 2015 Billing Period and FIT Differential balance as of 24 February 2016: ACTUAL ENERGY FIT DIFFERENTIAL FIT DIFFERENTIAL RE TECHNOLOGY GENERATION DUE, Pesos BALANCE, Pesos BILLED (MWH) Wind 635,296.68 3,383,651,980.51 1,426,643,935.69 Solar 92,188.58 446,124,228.07 128,269,652.66 Biomass 92,271.80 352,314,649.15 177,359,050.88 Hydro 48,878.44 111,436,041.08 77,385,803.58 TOTAL 868,635.51 4,293,526,898.80 1,809,658,442.81 Note: ‘Actual Energy Generation Billed’ does not yet reflect energy generation in 2014/2015 1) That has not actually been billed (one at a time billing of backlog per REPA) 2) Of potentially FIT-eligible RE Plants that have not been granted/have just been granted FIT COC to date but have COD in 2014 or 2015. 6
2015 COLLECTION EFFICIENCY Actual as of February 24, 2016 FIT-ALL COLLECTION AGENTS PEMC (FOR THE ACRR) 94.62% 99.00% As Estimated in the 2016 FIT-All Application FIT-ALL COLLECTION AGENTS PEMC (FOR THE ACRR) 96.03% 99.27% 7
2015 COLLECTION AND DISBURSEMENT, Php FIT-ALL STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW As of February 24, 2016 Cash Receipts 2,543,383,229.12 FIT-All Collection (March-2015 February 24, 2016) CRR Collection (June 2015- February 24, 2016) 1,226,769,683.13 Interest on Deposits 289,541.58 Total 3,770,442,453.83 Disbursements Payment to RE Developers 3,710,846,715.95 Payment of Interest 610,003.78 Payment to LBP (Mar-November 2015) 520,000.00 Total 3,711,976,719.73 FIT-All Fund Balance, as of February 24, 2016 58,465,734.10 Balance of Payables to RE (with Billings) Total RE Claim (April 2015 - January 31, 2016) 5,532,710,608.86 Total Payment to RE (May 2015 -Feb 24, 2016) 3,710,846,715.95 Unpaid RE Claim as of February 24, 2016 1,821,863,892.92 8
II. 2016 FIT-All Rate Determination Note: Calculations made were based on actual billing data as of August 2015 9
BASIS Guidelines on the Collection of the Feed- in Tariff Allowance (FIT-All) and the Disbursement of the FIT-All Fund (“FIT -All Guidelines”) 10
ASSUMPTIONS a. No degression of the FIT Rates for 2016 but with adjustments due to inflation and forex; Solar FIT 2 and Wind FIT 2 were used b. Line-up of plants are for computation purposes only; does not automatically entitle listed plants to FIT nor payment thereof c. As a rule, projected generation forecast provided by RE were used (if provided), otherwise DOE forecasts were used; or, if RE projections were perceived to be too high, then DOE forecasts were used d. Actual energy generation levels of operational RE Plants that were available were considered 11
ASSUMPTIONS e. Solar projects considered only until March 15, 2016 per DOE list (with due consideration to the indivisibility of projects) f. For Wind, Bangui 1 & 2 (existing before the RE Law) were included in the line-up at a FIT Rate of P5.76/kWh g. 2014-2015 under-recoveries were included in the determination of the 2016 FIT-All h. NREB recommended formula for Factor Rate from the 2014-2015 FIT-All application was used in the computation of WCA, with updated input data 12
I. Data Sources a. List of Projected FIT Eligible RE Developers and Capacities/Generation Forecast (DOE) b. Actual and Projected Generation from RE Developers c. Forecast National Sales (DOE) d. Approved FIT Rates (ERC) e. CPI and FOREX (BSP website) f. Market Price and Blended Generation Cost (PEMC/DASURECO/kuryente.org) g. Factor Rate in the Computation of WCA (NREB formula) h. Collection Efficiency in the Computation of WCA (actual collection efficiency of FIT-All Fund Collection Agents) 13
PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE RE CAPACITIES & INSTALLATION TARGETS 2015 2016 Installation No. of Installed No. of Installed Targets Plants Capacity, Plants Capacity, BIOMASS 15 153.196 16 160.49 250 EXISTING 6 60.926 6 60.926 NEW 9 92.27 10 99.564 HYDROPOWER 5 35.73 12 59.98 EXISTING 2 5.6 2 5.6 250 NEW 3 30.13 10 54.38 SOLAR 11 161.9 22 523.02 500 NEW 11 161.9 22 523.02 WIND 7 426.9 7 426.9 EXISTING 1 33 1 33 400 NEW 6 393.9 6 393.9 TOTAL 38 777.726 57 1170.39 EXISTING 9 99.526 9 99.526 1400 NEW 29 678.2 48 1070.864 14
PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 15
PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 16
PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016 17
PROJECTED FIT ELIGIBLE PLANTS FOR 2015 & 2016
FIT-ALL FORMULA WORKING FIT DISBURSEMENT ADMINISTRATION CAPITAL DIFFERENTIAL ALLOWANCE ALLOWANCE ALLOWANCE (DA) (FD) (AA) (WCA) FIT ALL RATE, P/kWh FORECAST NATIONAL SALES (FNS) ) = FD + WCA + AA + DA FIT All (𝑄 𝑙𝑋ℎ FNS 19
FORECAST ANNUAL NATIONAL SALES 1 𝐷𝐵𝐻𝑆 𝑢𝑝,𝑢𝑜 = 𝑊 𝑢𝑜−𝑢𝑝 𝑢𝑜 − 1 𝑊 𝑢𝑝 ACTUAL ELECTRICITY SALES, kWh FORECAST ELECTRICITY SALES, kWh 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 Luzon 44,063,677,000 45,803,175,000 47,240,505,000 Visayas 7,646,701,000 7,867,617,000 8,039,020,000 Mindanao 7,500,241,000 7,894,820,000 8,065,259,000 Sales, kWh 59,210,619,000 61,565,612,000 63,344,784,000 65,962,899,825 68,380,633,362 Growth Rate 5.19 3.66 4.13 3.67 3.56 20
FIT DIFFERENTIAL FORECAST TOTAL FIT COST RECOVERY REVENUE REVENUE ( Forecast (OVER)/UNDER ( Forecast FIT DIFFERENTIAL Annual RE Annual RE RECOVERY Generation x Generation x FIT Rate CRR Rate DATA NEEDED SOURCE FIT Eligible RE Actual/Forecast Annual Generation 2014- DOE/RE 2016 FIT Rate ERC CRR Rate PEMC Luzon & Visayas (LWAP) Mindanao (Blended Rate of Host DU) DASURECO ERC Decision on 2014- 2015 FIT-All Application ZAMCELCO, MAGELCO, BUSECO. MORESCO II, SOCOTECO II www.kuryente.org 21
FORECAST ANNUAL GENERATION, MWH Technology 2014-2015 2016 2017 Biomass 309,839 682,407 761,454 Hydropower 108,271 187,342 492,222 Solar 158,580 632,686 707,963 Wind 875,169 977,205 977,477 Total 1,451,859 2,479,639 2,939,116 - - - 22
ADJUSTED FIT RATE, Php/kWh 2016 Adjusted FIT-Rate 2015 Base FIT Rate 2014-2015 Entrant 2016 Entrant Biomass 6.6300 7.0508 7.0508 Hydro 5.9000 6.4601 6.4601 Solar FIT 1 9.6800 9.9067 FIT 2 8.6900 8.6900 8.6900 Wind FIT 1 8.5300 8.9006 FIT 2 7.4000 7.4000 Average Forex (Jul2014-June2015) 44.4187 Average CPI(Jul2014-June2015) 140.9500 23
FORECAST COST RECOVERY RATE (WESM) LWAP, Pesos per MWh LWAP, Pesos per KWh LWAP, Pesos per MWh LWAP, Pesos per KWh Month Luzon Visayas Luzon Visayas Month Luzon Visayas Luzon Visayas 1 Aug.2015 3,691.00 3,953.00 3.6910 3.9530 19 Feb.2014 2,487.60 2.4876 2 Jul.2015 4,518.00 4,186.00 4.5180 4.1860 20 Jan.2014 2,308.88 2.3089 3 Jun.2015 6,322.00 6,864.00 6.3220 6.8640 21 Dec.2013 18,193.89 18.1939 4 May.2015 4,457.00 4,839.00 4.4570 4.8390 22 Nov.2013 16,122.20 3,181.91 16.1222 3.1819 5 Apr.2015 2,810.00 2,905.00 2.8100 2.9050 23 Oct.2013 6,641.10 6,319.51 6.6411 6.3195 6 Mar.2015 5,075.00 5,337.00 5.0750 5.3370 24 Sept.2013 2,678.01 3,027.90 2.6780 3.0279 7 Feb.2015 5,079.00 5,225.00 5.0790 5.2250 25 Aug.2013 3,202.23 2,949.65 3.2022 2.9497 8 Jan.2015 3,367.00 3,477.00 3.3670 3.4770 26 Jul.2013 2,864.93 2,876.17 2.8649 2.8762 9 Dec.2014 2,068.00 2,812.00 2.0680 2.8120 27 Jun.2013 4,309.76 4,054.88 4.3098 4.0549 10 Nov.2014 3,253.00 3,874.00 3.2530 3.8740 28 May.2013 6,023.34 6,014.31 6.0233 6.0143 11 Oct.2014 3,539.00 1,706.00 3.5390 1.7060 29 Apr.2013 6,993.49 7,158.28 6.9935 7.1583 12 Sept.2014 5,544.00 (528.00) 5.5440 (0.5280) 30 Mar.2013 4,889.87 4,226.06 4.8899 4.2261 13 Aug.2014 5,694.00 4,571.00 5.6940 4.5710 31 Feb.2013 2,791.71 2,626.82 2.7917 2.6268 14 Jul.2014 8,104.00 7,745.00 8.1040 7.7450 32 Jan.2013 3,038.42 3,248.66 3.0384 3.2487 15 Jun.2014 6,443.00 6,730.00 6.4430 6.7300 33 Dec.2012 6,106.52 6,157.75 6.1065 6.1578 16 May.2014 6,642.33 7,220.01 6.6423 7.2200 34 Nov.2012 5,393.59 5,495.79 5.3936 5.4958 17 Apr.2014 9,950.57 6,377.21 9.9506 6.3772 35 Oct.2012 6,408.79 5,555.74 6.4088 5.5557 18 Mar.2014 6,788.21 6.7882 36 Sept.2012 4,301.10 4,704.07 4.3011 4.7041 Average 5,502.7928 4,527.8350 5.5028 4.5278 24
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