2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement November 26, 2013

Overview • Turning the corner • Challenges remain • Fastest growing province • Floods • Bitumen bubble is back

Booming Population

Flood Costs • June 24 - Floods • June 27 - $1 B commitment • November 25 - $764 M supplementary estimate

Economic Strength • Solid foundation • Strong growth • Net asset position

Economic Strength 24.3% Population 10.8% 28.2% Employment 14.4% 32.9% Real GDP 19.8% Alberta Canada Growth in select indicators 2002-2012

Employment and Migration Employment Growth (q/q) thousands Net Migration 50 40 30 20 10 - (10) (20) 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

Q2 - Actual Results Operational Plan 6 Month Q2 Actual Estimate  $20.4 B • Operational Revenue $19 B  $19.3 B • Operational Expense $19 B  $ 458 M • Disaster/Emergency Assistance $15 M  $1.1 B surplus • Operational Deficit/Surplus $58 M deficit Fiscal year end operational balance range: $250 M surplus to $250 M deficit

Oil Price Differential 110 $ 100 $15 90 $10 $30 80 $40 70 60 50 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 WTI WCS

Market Access Market access the biggest factor affecting oil revenue • Opening new markets • Washington D.C. visits • Asia • Canadian Energy Strategy

Flood Costs Flood spending forecast • $4.3 B this year • $3.1 B federal government • $1.2 B Alberta government

Flood Costs $764 M for initial requirement to support Albertans, businesses and communities. Cash cards, First Nations housing, purchasing homes in floodway, $139 M Hand-up Plan for small business, etc. $625 M Roads, bridges, erosion repair, etc.

Revised Budget Forecast Budget Estimate - Operational Plan Revised Operational Forecast  $42.7 B Operational Revenue $37.7 B  $42.7 B Operational Expense $38.1 B  Operational Surplus $15 M Operational Deficit $451 M Budget Estimate - Capital Plan Revised Capital Plan Forecast  $5.7 B Capital Plan Spending $5.2 B *Budget Balance Sheet Forecast *Revised Balance Sheet Forecast  $2.6 B Contingency Account $0.7 B - $18.5 B Heritage Fund and other funds $18.5 B  $42.5 B Net Assets $42.3 B *at March 31, 2014

Questions www.finance.alberta.ca twitter.com/AB_TB_Finance