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1 No duck breeds Distribution of double-cropping rice 2 3 4 - PDF document

Dec 29, 2023 •362 likes •435 views

invest in protection as long/far as it pays The rationale for based on the law of diminishing returns animal health attain economically optimal level of disease strategies as applies to the given poultry risk environment

  1. • invest in protection as long/far as it pays The rationale for • based on the law of diminishing returns animal health • attain economically optimal level of disease strategies as applies to the given poultry risk environment • not based on biology or disease ecology • (will discuss the pathogen perspective later) emerging disease – what is this? drivers - globalisation, climate change, livestock revolution and what more..... - market forces explain why there is no more eradication -no more eradication implies stand-still -standstill implies biological invasion; disease emergence 1

  2. No duck breeds Distribution of double-cropping rice 2

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  5. Overlay Anatidae flyways (weighted by species Pop.size) with intersecting HPAI 2 nd half 2005. Why is HPAI entrenched in some countries and not in others? • China • Mexico crowdedness • Pakistan middle income class small-medium scale holdings + • Indonesia intermediaries • Egypt • Nigeria • Bangladesh poultry intensification trajectories from 1961 – 2005 for the world top 4 producers Are we going to vaccinate 10 9 Brazil US 8 8 till EU15 6 7 China Chicken Output / Input (kg meat / animal / year) 4 6 2 5 the cows come home? 0 4 0 50 100 3 2 1 0 0 200 400 600 800 Agricultural population density (Ag Population / km2 Arable land) asymmetry in warfare virulence the rationale for people to invest in animal health.... optimal level of disease the rationale transmission host radiation behind a pathogen’s ecological strategy.... optimal host exploitation level 5

  6. an explosive combination.... • minute RNA viruses displaying promiscuous behaviour • and dispersive avian hosts How to counter the mutually destructive, bio-compartmentalisation bi-directional viral traffic between old and new forms of poultry? wild waterbirds • create HPAI free commercial poultry chains rice – duck reservoirs commercial poultry • licensed to supply HPAI free LBMs of urban centres • create medium size supply-marketing compartments • introduce localness concepts at the village level • keep village chicken away from duck reservoirs and vv village poultry live bird markets • focus on virus persistence in duck reservoirs ( cf Thailand) long term implications: old and new forms of poultry don-t go together so let us put an halt to this • move beyond Public Veterinary Services • empower communities / city councils • engage in Public-Private-Partnerships 6

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