Worldwide Prospects for Renewable Energy Towards 2050 and Beyond Trial Lecture Georgi H. Yordanov 17 December 2012
OUTLINE • Why the World needs renewable energy (RE) • Q1: How much RE by 2050? • Q2: What relative shares of the different RES? • Scenarios for the energy portfolio until 2050 • Overview of the most promising RE technologies 2
WHY WE NEED RE • Atmospheric GHG must be kept within 450 ppm CO 2 eq. in order to avoid Climate Catastrophe • Nuclear power generation is associated with unacceptably high risks for human health and the environment. Examples: Chernobyl, Fukushima, 3- Mile Island… Radioactive waste!!! • Earth’s population has surpassed 7 BN and is depleting its resources at unprecedented rates! Peak Oil, Peak Gas, etc. Most RE is extrinsic (the sun; Availability ~ 10 9 yr). Long-term sustainability! 3
ENERGY PATHS Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 4
ENERGY BY PRESENT 33 % Oil; 30 % Coal; 24 % Gas; 8 % RE (6.5 % Hydro) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2012 5
DISTRIBUTION Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 6
RE 2008 Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 7
RISING POPULATION Source: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 8
RISING POPULATION Source: UN 9
QUO VADIS, MANKIND?! 10
POSSIBLE FUTURES Source: IPCC Climate Change Report, 2007 11
ΔT ≤ +2°C by 2100!!! 12
THE FUTURE WE WANT • A great challenge: keep the increase in the mean global T below 2°C by 2100!!! • Δ T > 2°C dangerous disruption to the climate numerous and significant risks to mankind • UN Climate Change Conf. (Copenhagen, Dec 2009): no binding time-table, global coordination, viable monitoring system nor scope to impose sanctions • The EU: a greater sense of urgency is needed!!! 13
DECARBONIZATION RE use is a key part of the actions needed to reduce the man-made GHG emissions (CO 2 in particular) Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012 14
A MANY PARTS SOLUTION RE use alone may not be enough! Need efficiency, CCS, etc. 15
WHAT IF CCS FAILS? IEA: Lack of progress in carbon capture and storage (CCS)!!! We may need more RE than we think or want!!! 16
Where Are We Now? • IEA : Only a portfolio of more mature RE technologies – hydro , biomass , onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) – are making sufficient progress. • Fossil fuels still dominant; demand growth continues, locking in high-carbon infrastructure. The investments made today will determine the energy system that is in place in 2050. • IEA, EU concerned about “the lack of (sufficient) progress in clean energy ” 17
UPSURGE OF COAL • According to BP , the key determinants for the future of the GHG emissions are China and India • “ GDP of China and India ~2x by 2020” ( Dieter Helm Professor, Uni. Oxford – “ The Carbon Crunch ”) • 400 – 600 GW new coal-fired power plants if the 12 th 5-year plan is implemented in China (Ibid.) • New coal-fired PPs to replace nuclear in Germany! • Solution : coal gas + CO 2 cons. tax + MUCH RE!!! 18
PRESENT MEASURES German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU): judging from the current pledges, a global mean T increase of ≥ 3ºC can be expected by 2100 Energy system transformation is inevitable anyway! Proposed: Climate Policy Contagion led by the EU! 100 % RE in EU by 2050 (!!!) + energy efficiency!!! EU-wide FIT for RE to ensure financial support 19
DOHA CC CONFERENCE • 27 Nov – 8 Dec, 2012, Doha, Qatar • Russia, Japan and Canada withdrew from Kyoto!!! • Expiry of the Kyoto protocol (end of 2012) would leave the world with no legally binding deal to confront global warming! Source: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 20
EU ROADMAP 2050 • High RE scenario: 75 % RE if CCS fails!!! Grid costs € 55×10 9 /year; STORAGE!!! No. 1 - wind • Current policies (post-Fukushima): ≥ 55 % RE • Electricity share ~2x (36-39 % in 2050) • Discussion on binding RE target will begin soon • The 20 % efficiency improvement by 2020 is failing! High efficiency scenario: energy demand ‒45 % . 21
IPCC: RE 2050 • The IPCC believes 77 % RE possible by 2050 1/3 less GHG emissions than business-as-usual Atmospheric GHG kept within 450 ppm CO 2 eq. Global mean T increase ≤ 2 °C (equilibrium value) • Requires consistent climate and energy policy!!! • 164 scenarios; solar ≤ 40 % ; wind > 20 % 22
IPCC SCENARIOS Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 23
IPCC SCENARIOS 24
SHELL’S “SCRAMBLE” • The worse of 2 scenarios (2 imperfect futures) • Primary energy in 2050: ~ 850 EJ/yr; RE: > 300 EJ/yr (35 %) Source: Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 25
THE EARLY STAGE EU Energy targets 20-20-20 by 2020: Solar, wind and biomass are the technologies progressing most rapidly. Solar and wind develop for electricity generation while biomass remains dominant for the heating sector. Source: EU Commission 26
POTENTIALS Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 27
BIOMASS Low-efficiency bioenergy plays a critical role in the lives of billions in the developing countries. High-efficiency modern bioenergy uses more convenient solids, liquids and gases as secondary energy carriers to generate heat, electricity, CHP, and transport fuels. ~ 60 EJ/yr at present 28
BIOENERGY IN 2050 • Estimated potential in 2050: 100-300 EJ/yr • Achieving 300 EJ/yr would require major policy efforts, especially targeting improvements and efficiency increases in the agricultural sector and good governance of land use (e.g., zoning). • ΔT ≤ 2 °C would require on the average 160 EJ/yr (i.e., a compound annual growth rate of 3 %/yr). Possible?? GDP grew ~3.3 %/yr (1970-2010) but with low-cost transport & energy; Unemployment: China 4.1 %, EU 10.7 %, US 7.7 % 29
ENABLERS VS. RISKS Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 30
PHOTOSYNTHETIC UPTAKE IS IMPORTANT! 31
BIOENERGY ROUTES Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 32
DIRECT SOLAR • 4 main technologies: thermal, PV, CSP & fuels production • Most pessimistic technical potential: ~1,600 EJ/yr (2008: 492 EJ) • Current use of primary solar energy: ~0.7 EJ/yr • 2050: 15-80 EJ/yr (avg. ~35 EJ/yr); Avg. growth rate 11 %/yr 33
PV & CSP • PV is the fastest growing solar technology thanks to subsidies (FIT) • The compound growth rate over the past decade was ~50 %/yr!!! • HCPV is much less competitive than PV (requires sun tracking) • Unlike CSP, residential PV & thermal ratings start from a few kW P ! Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 34
GEOTHERMAL • Peak fluxes concentrated at active tectonic regions; • Presently < 0.5 EJ/yr • Projections for 2050 average at ~4 EJ/yr (requires growth 6 %/yr) Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 35
HYDROPOWER Present PE use: 13 EJ/yr; 2050: ~ 20 EJ/yr (max. 52 EJ/yr) 36
WIND ENERGY • 3 % of the worldwide electricity demand in 2012 • Could grow to > 20 % by 2050 in ambitious scenarios • Onshore wind is being deployed rapidly in many countries • Already competitive in areas with good wind resources 37
WIND ENERGY 2050 • Present primary wind energy use: 1.8 EJ/yr • Median projection for 2050: 27 EJ/yr (required growth: 7.4 %/yr) • 14 % of global electricity supply 38
OCEAN ENERGY • 6 types of energy; most technologies in early development stage • Until about 2008, ocean energy was not considered in any of the major global energy scenario modeling activities. • Pessimistic projections for 2050: < 1 EJ/yr Source: IPCC Special Report on RE Sources, 2012 39
RE BEYOND 2050 RE use depends on developments; 4 key scenarios; My guess for 2100: pop. 7-11 BN; a hot (+3-5 ° C), regional, depleted world RE 2100 ≈ RE 2050 ±50 % Limits to Growth 7 BN?!! 40
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