Working Paper ICP Please do not cite without permission from the - PDF document

Working Paper ICP Please do not cite without permission from the author Session: Mortality patterns in the past Monday 30 October 8:30-10:30 Tim Riswick This working paper is part of the PhD- project ‘Between Rivalry and Support: Differences in Infant and Child Mortality Chances of Brothers and Sisters in the Netherlands (1863-1910) and Taiwan (1906- 1946)’ and only includes the study of sibling effects within the Netherlands. During the presentation on the International Population Conference some preliminary results on Taiwan will also be presented to be able to show some similarities and differences in sibling effects between these two societies. Abstract ‘ Testing the Conditional Resource Dilution Hypothesis: The Impact of Sibling Size and Composition on Infant and Child Mortality in the Netherlands, 1863- 1910’ Child survival depends on the allocation of resources within the household. The size and composition of the sibling set influence parental division of resources and can in turn affect survival chances. In spite of recent research advances on sibling effects, studies often use the resource dilution hypothesis that neglects the specific historical context which shapes household structure and organization. This study therefore focuses specific on the historical context by examining sibling effects on infant and child mortality in three regions in the Netherlands in the period 1863-1910. It does so by using the conditional resource dilution model as a conceptual framework, which incorporates economic conditions, cultural codes and practices and family systems, and by taking changing household composition into account by using longitudinal data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands, time-varying variables and Cox proportional-hazard models to study sibling effects. The results suggest that, next to the influence of socio-economic and biological determinants, the number and gender of siblings plays an important role for child mortality, but less for infant mortality. These effects are, however, gendered because the number of same-sex siblings mainly has an impact on boys’ survival chances. Moreover, when examining the three regions a negative influence of the number of sisters is only found for child mortality chances for girls in the nuclear family region. These findings underscore the importance of looking at the specific historical context when trying to understand how sibling size and composition may have different effects of child ren’s mortality chances. 1

Testing the Conditional Resource Dilution Hypothesis: The Impact of Sibling Size and Composition on Infant and Child Mortality in the Netherlands, 1863-1910 Tim Riswick 1. Introduction The position of a certain child within the household is considered to be essential because infants and young children are totally dependent on tangible and intangible resources from the household and its members (Bengtsson, Campbell, and Lee 2004).The focus of most research is mostly on the influence of the presence or absence of parents. These studies, for example, demonstrate the importance of the mother for the survival of her children (Van Poppel 2000; Van Poppel and Gaalen 2008), while the importance of the father is much more debated and depends on household structure and historical context (Derosas and Oris 2002). Yet, most of the time households in pre-modern times did not only consist of a father and mother: other present (adult) kin could also be able to take over some roles of parents and offer support or have a negative influence because of increased competition over household resources. Overview studies looking into kin effects on mortality outcomes especially emphasize the positive effect of kin by concluding that all studies suggest that at least one relative - apart from the mother - is beneficial for child survival in almost all populations. There is much variation in how relatives are helpful to the survival of children, but siblings are often overlooked and therefore rarely studied in research examining infant and child survival (Sear and Coall 2011; Sear and Mace 2008). This study therefore tries to answer the question under what circumstances, and through which mechanisms, are sibling size and composition actually beneficial or detrimental for child survival chances? Earlier research investigating the effect of sibship size on other demographic processes and outcomes explain the influence of siblings with the resource dilution model. According to this model parental resources are finite and additional children dilute these resources. The amount of resources that can be assigned to each child in the household is, therefore, only dependent on both the amount of resources and the number of children (Downey 2001). Although several scholars have uncovered extensive empirical evidence which is consistent with the resource dilution model (Black, Devereux, and Salvanes 2005; Booth and Kee 2008; Carter et al. 2002; Downey 1995; Dribe, Campbell, and Van Bavel 2012), the number of empirical studies that challenge it is growing (Bras, Kok, and Mandemakers 2010; Chu, Xie, and Yu 2007; Li, Zhang, and Zhu 2008; Lu, Treiman, and Donald 2014; Marteleto and de Souza 2012; Shavit, Pierce, and Pierce 1991; Yu, Su, and Chiu 2012). These studies demonstrate that the theory is too simplistic because the parental couple is regarded to be the unit that decides on the distribution of resources. Other possible factors which may influence the household strategy are 2

therefore ignored. As a result, more and more scholars are advocating for a more contextual and flexible conceptual framework. One that is able to incorporate specific cultural codes and practices, economic conditions and institutions to determine how sibship size matters (Gibbs, Workman, and Downey 2016; Öberg 2017; Powell, Werum, and Steelman 2004). Moreover, it is also argued that gender regimes should be included because some form of gender discrimination exists in most societies (Das Gupta 1997; Kalmijn and van de Werfhorst 2016). Yet, to be able to investigate the ideas of the conditional or gendered resource dilution model a more comparative approach is needed, which is lacking in most studies at this moment. Given how little is known about the connection between sibship size and composition and survival chances, this study investigates how and why sibling effects affect infant and child mortality between the ages zero and five in the Netherlands in the period 1863-1910. On the one hand, examining how siblings influence survival chances is important because it sheds light on the most extreme inequalities within the household which eventually result in death. On the other hand, this study also contributes to the overall literature on sibling effects by (1) using the conditional resource dilution model as a conceptual framework, which incorporates economic conditions, cultural practices and family and gender systems, and by (2) using longitudinal data and time-varying variables which can take changing household composition throughout time into account. The latter is possible because of a sample from Historical Sample of the Netherlands and by using Cox proportional-hazard event history analysis. In sum, by studying the connection between sibling effects and survival chances of young children, this study advances the literature on both topics. It offers evidence for the influence of siblings on demographic processes and outcomes in general, and for mortality in particular. In the following section, the mechanisms and previous research findings based on the resource dilution hypothesis are used to formulate expectations about mechanisms by which possible sibling effects influenced infant and child mortality. Next, hypotheses originating from the theory and specific historical context are formulated. After the datasets and methods are introduced, the results of the descriptive statistics and Cox proportional-hazard models are discussed. The article concludes with a discussion on the interpretation of the influences of siblings on infant and child survival in the Netherlands and some suggestions for future research. 2. Background: incorporating regional variation and gender in the resource dilution model The resource dilution hypothesis is the most used theory that addresses the way in which the number of siblings relates to the allocation of resources in the household. There are, however, some problems with the exact features of this hypothesis. A first point of critique is that the model argues that parental resources are finite, while this does not imply that the total amount and distribution of these resources is fixed. The amount and distribution of resources can also change over time (Downey 2001). Moreover, gender systems may play an important role in the exact allocation and quality of resources because boys 3