WINNING MESSAGES ON JUDGES, GUNS AND OWNING THE CONSTITUTION’S TEXT, HISTORY & VALUES Mark Mellman mmellman@mellmangroup.com 1023 31st Street, NW 5th Floor Washington, DC 20007 ph 202-625-0370 fx 202-625-0371 www.mellmangroup.com 1 1
Key Findings Judges and the Judiciary The Public Has A Favorable Image Of The Roberts Court However, A Plurality See The Court Treating Corporations More Favorably Than People Voters Prefer A 60-Vote Threshold For SCOTUS Nominees, And Divide On Whether Trump’s Nominees Will Be Fair For Judges, The ‘Progressive’ Label Has Small, But Meaningful, Advantages Over The ‘Liberal’ Label Voters Are Most Likely To Want A Supreme Court Justice To Protect Key Rights – Though Partisans Disagree On Which Rights 2 2
Key Findings Major Issues And Framing CAC’s Framework Garners More Support Than Living Document Arguments & Similar Progressive Language CAC’s Language Is Much More Effective In Winning Public Support For Reasonable Gun Regulations CAC’s Language Wins The Argument About A Judicial Role In Combating Discrimination & Inequality When Debating Women’s Rights, CAC’s “Text, History And Values” Is A Stronger Theme Than Living Document Birthright Citizenship Is A Widely Recognized Right 3 3
Methodology • Focus groups of swing voters and Democrats In Columbus, OH and Richmond, VA • Conducted February 15 & 16, 2017 • National survey of 1,000 registered voters • Interviews conducted Sept 19-24, 2017 • Margin of error +/- 3.1 percentage points, larger for subgroups 4 4
The Roberts Court Improved Its Public Image, As Republicans Became More Favorable 5 5
The Court Is Viewed More Favorably Than In 2014 The Shift Is Concentrated Among Republicans And Whites, Though The Image Of The Court Hasn’t Worsened Among Democrats Fav Fav Supreme Court Favorability Chg ‘14 ‘17 Lib Democrat 52% 52% = 100% 4/14 9/17 Mod/Cons Democrat 50% 50% +1 Independent 45% 54% +9 45% 60% Republican +15 80% Male 46% 54% +13 +31 +9 Female 49% 56% +7 50% 18-39 48% +2 60% 55% 58% 40-59 49% +9 47% 45% 56% 60+ +12 43% 46% HS or less +3 40% 34% 41% 52% Some College +10 24% 54% 63% Coll Grad + +9 54% 62% White Coll +8 20% 42% 53% White Non-Coll Men +11 38% 56% White Non-Coll Women +18 48% 35% -12 Black 0% Favorable Unfavorable 57% 58% Hispanic +1 6 6
Though The Court’s Performance Ratings Remain Negative, They Too Improved Supreme Court Job Performance Pos Pos Chg ‘14 ‘17 100% Liberal Democrat 34% 33% -1 4/14 9/17 Mod/Cons Democrat 43% 36% -7 Independent 27% 32% +5 35% 40% Republican +5 80% 29% 34% -27 -17 Male +5 37% 37% Female = 60% 34% 31% 18-39 -3 60% 53% 35% 39% 40-59 +3 30% 36% 60+ +7 32% 31% HS or less -1 36% 40% 34% 29% 33% Some College -4 34% 42% Coll Grad + +8 35% 45% White Coll +10 20% 27% 36% White Non-Coll Men +9 37% 34% White Non-Coll Women -3 35% 19% -17 Black 35% 28% 0% Hispanic -7 Positive Negative 7 7
A Plurality See The Court Treating Corporations More Favorably Than People 8 8
Nearly A Majority Say The Supreme Court Treats Corporations More Favorably Than Individuals Do you think the U.S. Supreme Court treats corporations more favorably than people like you, does the Supreme Court treat corporations less favorably than people like you, or do you believe it treats corporations and people like you about equally? Corps More Corps Less 100% Favorably Favorably 63% 6% Liberal Democrat 57% 10% Mod/Cons Democrat 49% 9% Independent 80% 37% 7% Republican 52% 6% Male 47% 9% Female 60% 52% 9% 49% 18-39 50% 5% 40-59 46% 8% 60+ 34% 40% 44% 9% HS or less 53% 7% Some College 49% 7% Coll Grad + 20% 47% 7% White Coll 7% 52% 6% White Non-Coll Men 44% 9% White Non-Coll Women 0% 51% 10% More Equal Less Black 58% 11% Hispanic 9 9
“Progressive” Continues To Have Small, But Meaningful, Advantages Over “Liberal” 10 10
Judges Of All Ideological Stripes Tend To Be Seen As More Often Right Than Wrong When it comes to constitutional issues*, do you think _____ judges generally make the right decisions or the wrong decisions? Liberal Progressive Conservative 100% Judges Judges Judges 80% +13 +19 +9 60% 48% 46% 42% 37% 40% 29% 29% 20% Right Wrong 0% Italics = split-sampled 11 11
The Progressive Label Is A Bit More Trusted Than Liberal, But Both Are Weaker Than Conservative Only Liberal Democrats Are Hostile To Conservative Judges When it comes to constitutional issues*, do you think _____ judges generally make the right decisions or the wrong decisions? Liberal Progressive Conservative Lib Prog Cons Net Right Decisions 100% Judges Judges Judges Liberal Democrat +81 +57 -34 April 2014: April 2014: April 2014: Mod/Cons Democrat +24 +21 +19 49% Right, 44% Right, 47% Right, Independent +1 +8 +15 80% 28% Wrong 35% Wrong 27% Wrong Republican -50 -21 +63 Male +3 +6 +22 +14 +19 +16 Female +9 +13 +19 60% +16 +29 +6 18-39 48% +5 +4 +23 40-59 46% 42% +5 +6 +26 60+ 37% 40% -16 +5 +30 HS or less 29% 29% +12 +4 +19 Some College +18 +23 +13 Coll Grad + +17 +19 +18 White Coll 20% -23 -21 +39 White Non-Coll Men Right White Non-Coll +3 +9 +30 Wrong Women +42 +19 -10 Black 0% *phrase added in 2017 +26 +35 = Hispanic Italics = split-sampled 12 12
Voters Are More Likely To Trust A Progressive President Than A Liberal President To Nominate Justices Independents & Moderates/Conservative Democrats Find Progressives More Congenial Generally speaking, who would you trust more to nominate individuals to the Supreme Court - a conservative president or a progressive/liberal president? Net Trust Net Prog Net Lib Liberal Democrat +67 +79 Progressive 100% Liberal Mod/Cons Democrat +20 +2 Independent +12 -20 Republican -65 -68 80% +1 -6 Male +2 -11 Female = -2 18-39 +23 +11 60% 40-59 -7 -16 46% 42% 60+ -11 -13 40% 41% HS or less -24 -34 40% Some College +6 = Coll Grad + +10 -1 White Coll +6 -8 20% White Non-Coll Men -36 -35 White Non-Coll -7 -17 Women 0% +42 +35 Black Conservative Progressive Liberal Conservative +29 +33 Hispanic Italics = split-sampled 13 13
Voters Are Most Likely To Want A Supreme Court Justice To Protect Key Rights – Though Partisans Disagree On Which Rights 14 14
Civil Rights, Equal Rights, Racial Discrimination, Terrorism And Free Speech Are Most Important When Evaluating A Supreme Court Justice % One of Most + % Very Qualities of Justices Protects civil rights (ranked by % one of most impt) 90% 39% Protects equal rights 89% 39% Prevents racial discrimination 38% 87% Will protect the country from terrorism 38% 80% Protects free speech rights 36% 87% Protects due process rights 33% 85% Will stand up to the President when necessary 81% 33% Protects women's rights 84% 30% Won't bend the law to protect big business 78% 29% Protects our individual right to bear arms 66% 28% Tough on crime 75% 25% Cares about people like you 78% 25% Protects freedom of the press 71% 24% Respects states' rights 23% 70% Puts individual rights ahead of corporations 23% 71% Protects the middle class 23% 73% Independent 19% 63% Shares your values 62% 18% Focusing on cracking down on immigrants who are in US illegally 45% 16% Represents your point of view on the issues 61% 16% Italics = split-sampled 15 15
Democrats Prioritize Civil Rights, Equal Rights & Racial Discrimination, While Republicans Focus On Terrorism, Guns, Crime & Free Speech Independents Are Less Passionate, Though Civil Rights, Equal Rights, Speech And Due Process Top Their Lists SC Justice Descriptions Lib Mod/Cons Total Indep Rep Dem Dem ranked by % one of the most impt. Protects civil rights 39% 51% 48% 37% 29% Protects equal rights 39% 51% 44% 36% 32% Prevents racial discrimination 38% 51% 49% 33% 26% Will protect the country from terrorism 38% 32% 37% 32% 49% Protects free speech rights 36% 37% 47% 36% 34% Protects due process rights 33% 35% 39% 36% 31% Will stand up to the President when necessary 33% 48% 39% 28% 22% Protects women's rights 30% 40% 43% 24% 21% Won't bend the law to protect big business 29% 33% 39% 26% 27% Protects our individual right to bear arms 28% 17% 19% 24% 47% Tough on crime 25% 15% 32% 21% 34% 16 16
Racial Discrimination Is A Top Focus Of Hispanics And African-Americans SC Justice Descriptions Total Black Hisp. ranked by % one of the most impt. Protects civil rights 39% 39% 46% Protects equal rights 39% 39% 52% Prevents racial discrimination 38% 51% 52% Will protect the country from terrorism 38% 36% 47% Protects free speech rights 36% 35% 38% Protects due process rights 33% 32% 40% Will stand up to the President when necessary 33% 37% 38% Protects women's rights 30% 35% 37% Won't bend the law to protect big business 29% 29% 29% Protects our individual right to bear arms 28% 23% 24% Tough on crime 25% 22% 18% 17 17
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