William L. (“Les”) Kendrick Ph.D. (Consultant) October 8, 2019
Outline Enrollment Trends An Odd Year (2018 ‐ 2019) What About Sept 2019 (A little early but we can talk) Demographics Births Population Trends Housing Trends Enrollment Projections Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 2
District Enrollment Trend P223 Enrollment (October) Does Not Include Full‐Time Running Start Students or Students Enrolled in Open Doors 10,000 9,000 8,560 8,354 8,085 7,913 7,805 7,650 8,000 7,570 7,394 7,364 7,329 7,250 7,154 7,056 6,730 7,000 6,549 6,293 6,132 6,009 5,876 5,906 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 4
Tahoma Enrollment by Level Headcount (Excludes Running Start Only Students) 4500 3957 3906 3792 3720 4000 3654 3527 3437 3304 3300 3265 3235 3208 3500 3142 3032 2902 2775 2779 2717 2711 2733 3000 2526 2484 2337 2312 2309 2305 2316 2277 2279 2244 2268 2241 2500 2186 2088 2022 1940 1834 1796 1750 2000 1683 2077 1964 1956 1914 1883 1500 1846 1817 1774 1781 1752 1759 1728 1702 1625 1610 1565 1574 1502 1439 1418 1000 500 0 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 K-5 2775 2717 2711 2733 2779 2902 3032 3142 3208 3235 3265 3304 3300 3437 3527 3654 3720 3792 3906 3957 6-8 1418 1439 1502 1565 1574 1625 1610 1728 1702 1774 1752 1781 1759 1817 1846 1883 1914 1956 1964 2077 1683 1750 1796 1834 1940 2022 2088 2186 2244 2241 2312 2309 2305 2316 2277 2268 2279 2337 2484 2526 9-12 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 5
Tahoma’s Share of County K‐12 Public School Enrollment 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 6
K‐12 Public School Students Per House (King County Districts) 2010 Enrollment and Census Data Rounded Rounded Census 2010 Census Estimated Estimated P223 Oct Total 2010 K‐12 Students K‐12 Students School District 2010 Enroll Housing Units Occupied Units Per 100 Homes Per 100 Occupied Tahoma 7,394 13,835 13,153 53 56 Snoqualmie Valley 6,019 13,693 12,635 44 48 Auburn 14,343 32,762 30,704 44 47 Kent 26,630 60,010 56,621 44 47 Issaquah 16,881 38,765 36,642 44 46 Federal Way 21,724 50,518 47,551 43 46 Mercer Island 4,177 9,930 9,109 42 46 Enumclaw 4,472 10,516 9,877 43 45 Riverview 3,152 7,470 7,019 42 45 Tukwila 2,908 7,353 6,817 40 43 Northshore 19,390 49,801 46,787 39 41 Highline 18,101 50,913 47,160 36 38 Bellevue 18,008 56,376 50,892 32 35 Lake Washington 24,592 76,389 71,711 32 34 Shoreline 8,808 28,028 26,561 31 33 Vashon Island 1,421 5,552 4,606 26 31 Renton 13,558 48,991 45,526 28 30 Seattle 46,794 308,858 283,793 15 16 Skykomish 49 823 330 6 15 *Note: The number of K-12 students per house is estimated using Census housing counts and the October 2010 P223 enrollment. The number of students per 100 homes was rounded to the nearest whole number. The number of housing units includes all homes both new and existing, so it is different from the Student Generation Rate which ONLY looks at the number of students from new homes 7 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 9
10 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
Annual Net Change in Enrollment by County Since 2012 (Numbers may have changed since the original reporting date) Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 11
King County Public School Districts Change in Enrollment Between Oct 2017 and Oct 2018 2000 1500 1000 602 601 415 276 500 206 47 17 8 7 ‐4 ‐8 ‐9 ‐10 ‐16 0 ‐37 ‐37 ‐73 ‐197 ‐500 ‐510 ‐564 ‐691 ‐1000 ‐1500 ‐2000 Tukwila Tahoma Riverview Snoqualmie Valley Bellevue Enumclaw Technical College Mercer Island Shoreline Federal Way Highline Seattle Kent Charter Schools Northshore Lake Washington Auburn Skykomish Renton Vashon Island Issaquah Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 12
Public and Private School Enrollment King County (K‐12 Only) Source: P223 and P105 Report ‐‐State of Washington Headcount 300000 40,000 295000 35,000 36,452 36,715 36,428 37,395 37,403 36624 36055 35913 36,282 36,375 35,426 36073 290000 34,837 35,024 34,490 34,275 32,245 33,188 285000 30,000 286,801286,824 280000 283,136 25,000 275000 278,587 275,167 270000 20,000 270,546 265000 15,000 266,260 260000 262,319 255000 258,788 10,000 256,909 254,628255,246253,766255,087 250000 249319 250399 249971 250791 252241 5,000 245000 240000 0 Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- Oct- 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Private Schools Public Schools Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 13
What Happened? Immigrant populations declined for the first time in over a decade in South King County. But this doesn’t explain what happened throughout the region. What it’s NOT: Families did not flee King County for cheaper areas in the Puget Sound any more than they normally do. Pierce County growth was below normal Snohomish Growth was in line with expectations One Year Blip? A Cultural Change? – The Puget Sound is too expensive? A New Normal? Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 14
Average Annual Births by County Source: State of Washington Department of Health Birth Files 30,000 24,899 25,000 22,173 20,000 15,000 11,322 10,016 9,352 10,000 8,466 5,000 3,034 2,973 0 King County Kitsap County Pierce County Snohomish County Avg. Annual Births 1996-2005 Avg. Annual Births 2006-2015 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 16
King County Births Next year’s cohort Source: Washington State Health Department 27000 26,011 25,343 25,487 25,273 25,190 25,057 25,032 24,910 24,899 25000 24,514 24,630 24,244 23000 22,874 22,680 22,487 22,431 22,212 22,007 21,778 21,863 21000 19000 17000 15000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 17
King County Birth Projections (Based on the Average of 2016 and 2017 Fertility Rates and Projected Growth in Females in Their Child‐Bearing Years Using the OFM Medium Range Population Forecast) 40,000 Projections Actual Birth Cohorts (in 35,000 Projected cohorts for 2023 to 2028 orange) eligible for school Enrollment between 2018-2022 30,000 26011 26012 25842 25935 25864 25798 25682 25343 25487 25273 24910 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 18
Tahoma: Kindergarten Enrollment as a Percent of King County Births 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 21 81 7 21 573 21 646 2221 2 22007 22487 21 778 21 863 22431 22874 22860 24244 24899 251 90 25,057 24,51 4 24630 25032 24,91 0 KC Births (5 Years Prior) 394 391 41 5 391 442 478 470 471 498 465 504 495 526 545 590 538 553 587 61 7 Tahoma K Enroll Pct of Cohort 1 .81 % 1 .81 % 1 .92% 1 .76% 2.01 % 2.1 3% 2.1 6% 2.1 5% 2.22% 2.03% 2.20% 2.04% 2.1 1 % 2.1 6% 2.35% 2.1 9% 2.25% 2.34% 2.48% KC Births (5 Years Prior) Tahoma K Enroll Pct of Cohort Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 19
Forecast of the King County K‐12 Population Using Cohort Survival, Actual Births, Birth Forecasts and Projected Changes in the Age 5‐19 Population from the OFM Medium Range Forecast 350000 296,492 290,287 286,824 300000 258,788 249252 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2000 (P223) 2010 (P223) 2018 (P223) 2020 2025 20 Trends and Projections – Oct 2019
King County Net Population Change Source: Office of Financial Management of the State of Washington Projections for 2020 and 2025 are from the Growth Management Medium Range Projections Released by the State in December 2017 70,000 OFM Estimates 60,000 50,000 40,000 Projections 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Annual Net Annual Net 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 Change Change 2018-2020 2020-2025 11,351 14,400 24,900 35,350 35,550 52,300 48,600 36,500 20,604 24,832 King County Trends and Projections – Oct 2019 22
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