3 Who are Smart im Smart im are responsible for the fund selection and portfolio consultation of the iGuard active portfolios and Smartfunds. Smart im are the wholly owned investment management company of the Praemium Group. The team are responsible for the management of over £250 million of assets in a wide range range of actively managed risk-graded model portfolios and an innovative range of multi-asset funds.
4 Who are Praemium? Praemium are responsible for administration of your portfolio and outsource the custody of your portfolio to Northern Trust, who are responsible for custody of over $6.2 trillion of assets One of the fastest growing discretionary platforms in the international market, Praemium supports over 700 corporate firms, managing and administering over 300,000 investor accounts and £40 billion of assets. Founded in Australia in 2001 and listed on the ASX, Praemium operates internationally with offices in Australia, UK, Jersey, Hong Kong, China and Armenia. Praemium’s clients are firms like GWM that provide financial advice to investors.
5 What happened in 2015? June Reduced US Increased Europe & Asia August November Reduce GEM Reduce Japan, US, Asia Increase Japan & Asia Increase Cash April Reduced US Increased Asia & Japan September Increase Europe, Japan, Asia Reduce Absolute Return, Cash
6 So what about 2016 – its Déjà vu! Slowing Chinese economy
7 So what about 2016 – its Déjà vu! • Slowing Chinese economy • Chinese Yuan currency devaluation
8 So what about 2016 – its Déjà vu! • Slowing Chinese economy • Chinese Yuan currency devaluation • US interest rates
9 So what about 2016 – its Déjà vu! • Slowing Chinese economy • Chinese Yuan currency devaluation • Continued fears over the path of US interest rates • US manufacturing in recession
10 So what about 2016 – its Déjà vu! • Slowing Chinese economy • Chinese Yuan currency devaluation • Continued fears over the path of US interest rates • US manufacturing in recession • Continued slide in oil prices
11 What has this meant for markets? The worst start to year since 1928
12 How do you make money in markets like this?
13 Active management is key June Reduced US Increased Europe & Asia August November Reduce GEM Reduce Japan, US, Asia Increase Japan & Asia Increase Cash April Reduced US Increased Asia & Japan September Increase Europe, Japan, Asia Reduce Absolute Return, Cash
14 A robust active process can deliver returns even in volatile markets Smart Portfolio performance in 2015 6.9 6.5 6.5 5.9 5.2 [VALUE].0 3.8 3.8 Returns (%) Volatility (%) 6.2 10.6 11.4 9.1 6.2 5.3 7.0 8.2 DEFENSIVE CAUTIOUS CAUTIOUS + BALANCED BALANCED + AGGRESSIVE AGGRESSIVE + MSCI AC TR GBP
15 Outlook Weak economic growth
16 Outlook Weak economic growth led by the US Low inflationary environment
17 Outlook Weak economic growth led by the US Low inflationary environment Interest rates low by historical standards
18 Outlook Weak economic growth led by the US Low inflationary environment Interest rates low by historical standards Extended economic cycle
19 Outlook Weak economic growth led by the US Low inflationary environment Interest rates low by historical standards Extended economic cycle Volatility here to stay
20 Outlook Weak economic growth led by the US Low inflationary environment Interest rates low by historical standards Extended economic cycle Volatility here to stay Impact of QE waning
21 Outlook Weak economic growth led by the US Low inflationary environment Interest rates low by historical standards Extended economic cycle Volatility here to stay Immediate impact of QE waning Diversification is key
22 Outlook • Weak ¡economic ¡growth ¡led ¡by ¡the ¡US ¡ • Low ¡infla8onary ¡environment ¡ • Interest ¡rates ¡low ¡by ¡historical ¡standards ¡ • Extended ¡economic ¡cycle ¡ • Vola8lity ¡here ¡to ¡stay ¡ • Immediate ¡impact ¡of ¡QE ¡waning ¡ • Diversifica8on ¡is ¡key ¡ • Key ¡risks ¡ • US ¡interest ¡rates/dollar ¡ • US ¡elec8on ¡ • China ¡ • Brexit ¡
23 How were we positioned now? • Underweight equities – Underweight - UK/ Euro Neutral – Japan/ Asia Overweight Europe • Underweight Fixed Interest – Underweight – Gov‘t/ Strategic Overweight Currency/ Emg mkts • Property – Neutral • Underweight Absolute Return • Overweight currencies – US Dollar • Overweight - Cash
24 How can you put together your own portfolio? Start with determining what level of risk you are comfortable with
25 Diversify your investments Diversification and the average investor (UK) Diversification and the average investor (UK) Por$olio ¡returns: ¡Equi0es ¡vs. ¡equity ¡and ¡fixed ¡income ¡blend ¡ £24,000 ¡ 40/60 ¡PorUolio ¡ 60/40 ¡PorUolio ¡ £20,000 ¡ FTSE ¡All-‑Share ¡ Oct 2010 Oct 2010 Mar. 2012 Mar. 2012 Nov. 2009 Nov. 2009 60/40 portfolio £16,000 ¡ Mar. 2009 Mar. 2009 S&P 500 40/60 portfolio recovers S&P 500 portfolio recovers recovers Loses over $50,000 £12,000 ¡ £8,000 ¡ Oct. 2007 Oct. 2007 S&P 500 peak £4,000 ¡ 12/2007 ¡ 06/2008 ¡ 12/2008 ¡ 06/2009 ¡ 12/2009 ¡ 06/2010 ¡ 12/2010 ¡ 06/2011 ¡ 12/2011 ¡ 06/2012 ¡ 12/2012 ¡ 06/2013 ¡ 12/2013 ¡ 06/2014 ¡ 12/2014 ¡ 06/2015 ¡ 12/2015 ¡ 20-‑year ¡annualised ¡return ¡by ¡asset ¡class ¡(1995-‑2005) ¡ ¡ 14% ¡ 12% ¡ 10.4 ¡ 10% ¡ 7.0 ¡ 8% ¡ 6.7 ¡ 6.6 ¡ 6.0 ¡ 5.5 ¡ 5.1 ¡ 3.8 ¡ 6% ¡ 2.5 ¡ 4% ¡ 2.5 ¡ 2.0 ¡ 2% ¡ 0% ¡ REITs ¡ Home ¡ FTSE ¡All-‑Share ¡ 60/40 ¡ 40/60 ¡ Bonds ¡ Gold ¡ EAFE ¡ Oil ¡ Average ¡Investor ¡ Infla8on ¡
26 Be active! Number of 3% Daily Moves in S&P500 (by Decade ) 101 27 25 18 7 4 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-210 Source: Lipper, Smarti m. Annualised return from the IA sectors over 10 years to 31 March 2016. All figures are total return in sterling and are net of fees including the GWM Investment Management fee of 1%
27 Select the right investments % Annualised Return Over 10 Years After All Charges 14.00 12.19 11.90 12.00 10.07 10.00 8.27 8.20 8.00 6.69 5.82 6.00 4.33 4.22 3.65 4.00 3.19 3.18 2.00 0.85 0.13 0.00 -0.42 -2.00 -1.50 -1.92 -3.33 -4.00 -6.00 UK US Europe ex UK Japan Asia ex Japan Global Emerging Markets Top performing fund Average fund Bottom performing fund Source: Lipper, Smarti m. Annualised return from the IA sectors over 10 years to 31 March 2016. All figures are total return in sterling and are net of fees including the GWM Investment Management fee of 1%
28 Keep your nerve! Equity Fixed Income 18 16 14 Annualized Returns 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year Average Investor Index Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual fund performance. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indices are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Source: Dalbar, March 2013. Returns calculated in USD with an end date of December 31, 2012. The equity index is represented by S&P 500 Index, the fixed income index by Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. Average U.S. equity investor and average U.S. fixed income investor results are calculated using data supplied by the Investment Company Institute. Investor returns are represented by the change in total mutual fund assets after excluding sales, redemption, and exchanges. This method of calculation captures realized and unrealized capital gains, dividends, interest, trading costs, sales charges, fees, expenses and any other costs. Source: SEI, Smart im
29 Do it yourself or let us do it for you SuisseRock creates your financial plan Advise We work with you to select or create a portfolios that is tailored to your goals and is suitable given your personal situation and attitude and capacity for risk. Smart im invest and manage your money Your client portfolios are invested in one or more portfolios using an appropriate administration and custody platform Invest You can view portfolios 24/7 on-line SuisseRock monitors our progress and keeps you informed Service Our investment committee will actively monitor the ongoing suitability of our investment managers and portfolios We will ensure the ongoing suitability of your investments against your goals personal situation, and attitude and capacity for risk We will provide regular updates and commentaries to keep you informed of changes to your portfolios and information about the markets
30 Diversification is important … Source: Smart im , Lipper 31 st December 1985 to 31 st December 2013. All figures are total return in sterling.
Recommend
More recommend