What the fu future holds for nuclear energy? akira OMOTO, Tokyo Institute of Technology omoto@nr.titech.ac.jp, akira.omoto@mac.com
Outline 1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy 3. Paradigm shift in power sector 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World 5. Take-aways 2 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Factors that would influence the future of NE…. Global trend on energy Resources availability, Demand, Public aspiration on sustainability, Technological innovations…. Projection of energy represents results of model calculation considering these factors Public perception on nuclear safety and waste Cost of NNB (New Nuclear Build) Role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world Yet unknows…. 3 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
IAEA Scientific Forum 2018: “Nuclear Technologies for Climate: Mitigation, Monitoring and Adaptation” Use of low carbon energy: helps mitigate GHG emission and its adverse effect Use of isotopes and radiation: monitor environmental changes and enable adaptations [source] J. Orr, Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE), France 4 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
However, be prepared to avoid loss of credibility in discussion.. [SOURCE] Vostok Ice Core Data Graph Many factors involved in Global Warming…volcano eruption, solar activity, earth’s magnetic field, Milankovitch cycle (10(5) yr) etc. [Ex.] Dr. A. Tsuchida’s argument: Heat from Sun temp. change atmospheric CO2 level change by supply from ocean (Henry’s law) Also ocean surface pH change: may not simply attribute its trend to equilibration with atmospheric CO 2 (http://landscapesandcycles.net/ocean-acidification-natural-cycles---uncertainties.html) 5 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Nevertheless, recent sharp rise in atmospheric CO2 level by human activity is worrisome…. [SOURCE] Kevin Loria, “ The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere just hit its highest level in 800,000 years”, 2018June 6 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy 3. Paradigm shift in power sector 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World 5. Take-aways 7 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Projections of demand/supply of primary energy World Energy Outlook 2009 To achieve 450ppm (2DC) goal End use Efficiency Renewables Nuclear CCS [SOURCE] World Energy Outlook 2009, Fig 5.8, primary energy 8 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
WBGU(German Advisory Council on Global Change) 2016 Global primary energy [SOURCE] Priyadarshi R. Shukla, IPCC, WGIII Co-Chair, “The Paris Agreement and Global Low Carbon Transition Towards 1.5DC” , 2017, based on Sterner and Bauer, WBGU2016 9 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Global primary energy supply by sources in detail WBGU 2016 Biomass Solar Wind The Jủ rgen Schmid scenario: a vision of a global renewable energy system by 2050 [SOURCE] WBGU (German Advisory Council on Global Changes) 2016 10 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
IAE (Institute of Applied Energy) 2018 Primary energy supply in Japan Others [SOURCE] IAE, 2018 Liq. Hydrogen Renewables Nuclear Renewables Natural gas Coal Coal Oil Oil 11 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
UT (University of Tokyo) 2017 [SOURCE] Komiyama, UT, year- 2050 projection, 2017 12 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Nuclear share of 20 ％～ 22 ％ @2030 in Basic Energy Plan 2014 as near-term goal in Japan (Basic Energy Strategy 2018) (10(8)kWh) Capacity factor ： 70% 2 ４％〔 42units 〕 [Source] FEPC Nuclear share:20 ～ 22 ％ Generating 】 capcity 12% 〔 20units 〕 60 years 【 operation 40 years operation 15 years necessary for replacement （ FY) To secure nuclear share of 20 ％～ 22 ％ @2030 ① Restart ② Life extension beyond 40 years ③ NNB De-fact phase-out in case limited restart, no 60 years, no NNB 13 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Yet, unknowns….. For example: How SMR may change NNB How digitalization impact energy • NEA report: efficiency focus • Energy-hungry cloud computing and Data center • Power consumption by use of blockchain technology is ever increasing Finland TWh/year Venezuela Philippines Austria Chile Czech 14 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Projections imply high expectations on 1) GHG emission reduction and 2) renewables: What is the role of nuclear energy in carbon- constrained world? Major constraints A) Achieving deep decarbonization with minimum societal burden B) Current role of Nuclear is limited only to power…need to expand to other sectors How Nuclear co-exist with Intermittent Renewables? 15 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
The role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world 1) Supply of affordable, clean & reliable energy (electricity, heat, energy carrier) 2) Power supply to NETs, if conservation fails Ex. BECCS (Biomass with CCS) 3) Radiation & Isotope: Monitoring, adaptation… 4) Complementary use with intermittent renewables & address intermittency-related problems in the grid etc …… [SOURCE] US-EPA, based on IPCC2014 16 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
1. Introduction 2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy 3. Paradigm shift in power sector 4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World 5. Take-aways 17 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Paradigm shift to Renewables “Solar becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places including China and India” (F. Birol, IEA OECD, 2017 World Energy Outlook) Comparison of unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity, not including social/environmental externalities nor intermittency-related cost [ source] Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis (2016) $/MWh 18 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Changes in the share of renewables (2004-2014) (including dispatchable renewables) [SOURCE] Liebreich, BNEF, 2016 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018 19
Chin ina Annual investment on capacity: Wind & PV >> Nuclear FIT for Wind & PV [SOURCE] Lu Zheng, Energy Data and Modelling Center, China 20 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Japan Kyushu’s daily load curve and the share Installed solar power> Nuclear (2016.12) of solar power on sunny weekend • Due to a) reduced nuclear plants and [source] Kyushu’s electricity forecast 2017.4.24 b) increased PV [10,000kw] • Qualified solar ~80GWe Installed capacity Solar power Nuclear Solar Hour Coping strategies by Kyushu Electric • Pumped storage Estimation using JAIF and IEA data • Large scale batteries （ 300,000kWh) • Curtailment as necessary [ SOURCE] Renewable Energy Foundation 21 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Abandoned golf course to PV site [SOURCE] BusinessInsider.com 22 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Deep penetration of Intermittent Renewables (Hypothetical curve in Germany 2030) [SOURCE] Universität Stuttgart, “Compatibility of renewable energies and nuclear power in the generation portfolio”, 2009 Wind Nuclear 23 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
2/3 of US NPP are not profitable (MIT, March2017) now; … .. shale gas and IRs 24 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Negative pric ice Iowa state in windy and low demand time High demand period Positive Negative Low demand period “Must - run” nuclear (capital- WIND: Negative price bidding by wind THERMAL: Bidding to intensive and no quick down to PTC($34/MWh) recover fuel cost reaction to demand change) [SOURCE] Negative Electricity Prices and the Production Tax Credit, The NorthBridge Group, 2012 25 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Paradigm shift to supply-contingent utilization system [SOURCE] J. Specht, E.ON, 2014August 26 A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018
Electricity transaction by Energy Resource* Aggregation business (ERAB) and Peer-to-Peer business in microgrid using blockchain * Energy Resource post-FIT surplus electricity, Demand-side management, EV, Battery Energy Market Resource Aggregator Power suppliers Peer to Peer transaction EMS: Energy Management System Forecast in J (Gwe) 2020 2030 x 0.1=ERAB HEMS 21 47 4.7 BEMS 16 31 3.1 SUM=13.2GWe FEMS 5.3 10 1 (4% out of 300 Gwe@2030?) EV/PHV 4.5 44 4.5 [source]http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/kenkyukai/energy_ environment/energy_resource/pdf/001_04_00.pdf
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