What’s Up with the Washington County Economy? Lecia Parks Langston, Senior Economist Utah Department of Workforce Services
How boring is it?
Alternative indicators?
Job growth hovering around the 5-percent mark
Job growth hovering around the 5-percent mark
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 15% Three and one-half years! 10% 5% 0% Washington County -5% -10% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 3% 2% 1% Peaked in early 2015, but 0% remains relatively stable. -1% -2% -3% United States -4% -5% -6% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 6% 4% 2% Utah’s job growth second only to our 0% neighbor Idaho Utah in November 2015. -2% -4% -6% -8% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs 15% Hanging out in the “zone.” 10% 5% 0% -5% Washington Utah United States -10% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs by Industry September 2014 to September 2015 Daggett Wasatch 8% Rich 7% Beaver 7% Utah 7% Box Elder 7% Wayne 6% Moderate is Summit 5% better. Washington 5% Sanpete 5% Weber 4% State of Utah 4% Iron 4% Salt Lake 4% Davis 3% Cache 3% Grand 3% Garfield 3% Kane 3% San Juan 3% Sevier 3% United States 2% Morgan 2% Juab 2% Tooele 1% Millard 0% Carbon 0% Emery -3% Piute -4% Uintah -10% Duchesne Source: Utah Dept. of Workforce Services.
Most industries showing strong to moderate growth.
Most industries showing strong to moderate growth.
Washington County Change in Nonfarm Jobs; September 2014 to September 2015* Mining 6 Total jobs Construction 324 up 2,800 Manufacturing 283 Wholesale Trade 52 Retail Trade 180 Slower in retail Transportation/Warehousing 159 trade and Utilities -2 leisure/hospitality while healthcare Information 54 speeds up Financial Activities 172 Professional/Business Services 351 Education/Health/Social Services (Private) 858 Leisure/Hospitality 159 Other Services 123 Government 93 *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs September 2014 to September 2015* 5% Total 4% 4% Still seeing Mining -19% broad-based 7% Construction 7% expansion 10% Manufacturing 2% 3% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 4% 8% Information 4% 8% Financial Activities 5% 8% Professional/Business Services 5% 9% Education/Health/Social Services (Private) 6% Washington County 2% Leisure/Hospitality 5% Utah 8% Other Services 2% 1% Government 2% *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs September 2014 to September 2015* 5% Total 2% 4% Mining -12% 7% Construction 3% 10% Manufacturing 1% 3% Trade/Transportation/Utilities 2% 8% Information 2% 8% Financial Activities 2% 8% Professional/Business Services 3% 9% Education/Health/Social Services (Private) 3% 2% Leisure/Hospitality 3% Washington County 8% Other Services 1% United States 1% Government 0% *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Average wage increased 3 percent in 2014.
Third Quarter 2015 up 3.3 percent.
Washington County Annual Change in Average Monthly Wage 8% 7% 6% 5% Full- employment 4% before wages increase 3% 2% 1% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Washington County Year-Over Change in Average Monthly Wage 20% Raw Smoothed 15% Quarterly data show 10% gains. 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Unemployment about 4 percent.
Jobless rate expected to measure about 4 percent.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates 12% 10% 8% 6% Rates 4% bottomed Too out in 2015 low. 2% State of Utah United States Washington County 0% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Four-Week Moving Average 120 2013 2014 2015 100 80 60 40 No sign of 20 major layoffs 0 Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing under 2 percent.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product growing just over 2 percent.
U.S Quarterly Change in Real GDP 10% Quarter-to-Quarter Change Year-Over Change 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Same old, -6% same old -8% -10% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Change in Real Gross Domestic Product 15% United States (Metropolitan Portion) 10% St. George, UT 5% 0% Better than average -5% -10% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Change in Real GDP 2013-2014 United States (Metropolitan Portion) 2.3% Logan, UT-ID 3.0% Ogden-Clearfield, UT 3.9% Salt Lake City, UT 2.2% Provo-Orem, UT 3.6% Best of the Utah MSAs St. George, UT 4.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In 2014, population growth measured 2.9 percent.
In 2015, population growth measured ?
Population Growth Estimates 12% Washington County 152,000 in Utah 10% 10% 2014 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% Is 3 percent 6% the new 5% 5% normal? 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Permits issued for 1,400-plus homes.
Permits for roughly 1,500 homes.
Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits 3,860 3,794 No sign of the 2,697 2,678 excesses of the bubble. 2,256 2,114 2,019 1,929 1,995 1,888 1,740 1,687 1,667 1,519 1,514 1,440 1,500 1,266 1,267 1,257 980 870 846 682 605 Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation $176.9 Millions of $ Improvement in nonresidential $143.4 Washington County following residential’s lead. $118.2 $119.2 $113.2 $109.6 $107.5 $84.8 $75.2 $69.4 $68.9 $66.5 $51.7 $46.8 $44.3 $43.6 $44.1 $42.4 $39.6 $35.7 $37.4 $32.0 $30.7 $16.1 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
Washington County Construction Employment 9,000 8,000 Employment 7,000 rising but not over-heated 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 *Preliminary Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.
Washington County Housing Price Index 250 Unhurried appreciation 200 in home prices 150 100 50 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
Year-over Change in Housing Price Index (HPI) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Washington County -20% Rates of Salt Lake City MSA appreciation -30% Las Vegas MSA plateauing? -40% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
Housing Opportunity Index 80 U.S. Washington County 70 60 Affordability 50 holding steady. 40 30 20 Percent of homes which are affordable to families with the median income. 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank.
Washington County Homes Sold 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 Home sales trending 400 upward. 200 0 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Source: Utah Association of Realtors.
Sales growing between 5-10 percent.
Sales growing between 5-10 percent.
Year-to-Year Change in Gross Taxable Sales 16% Washington County Utah 11% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Five years of -9% expansion. -11% -12% -13% -14% -14% 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 1st Qtr 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
New Car and Light Truck Sales 1,600 Washington County Best quarter 1,400 ever. 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Year-Over Change in New Car/Truck Sales 100% 80% 12 percent 60% gain in third quarter 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Washington County -60% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Utah State Tax Commission.
Projected same level economic expansion with stronger wage growth.
No significant sign of a slowdown
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