15 May 2018 | Brussels | EEAC workshop What actions need to be taken to ensure a successful industrial transformation process? Sascha Samadi, Wuppertal Institute
Five key options for reducing GHG emissions in the industrial sector 1. Increasing energy efficiency E.g. by utilizing waste heat 2. Increasing emission efficiency E.g. by substituting coal with gas; higher electrification; CCS 3. Increasing material efficiency o In production, e.g. by reducing material loss during production o In use phase, e.g. by increasing recycling rates demand 4. Increasing product use efficiency side E.g. through more intensive use, as in the case of car sharing (should not be neglected) 5. Making consumption patterns more sustainable E.g. by travelling less or switching from car use to public transport 2
Further research as well as intelligent policy mix needed to enable industrial sector decarbonization Ø Identification and (multi-criteria) assessment of potential “breakthrough” technologies/processes capable of contributing to deep decarbonisation Ø Identification and implementation of adequate economic, infrastructural and institutional framework conditions required for developing innovative technologies, processes and products Ø Identification and implementation of adequate market structures for creating investment dynamics, while ensuring a level playing field across countries Ø Support for the development of individual mitigation roadmaps for companies and industrial clusters, based on broad stakeholder participation à Roadmaps for NRW and for the Port of Rotterdam as examples 3
Structure of the participatory process for the preparation of NRW’s climate protection plan 2012 2012/2013 2014 2015 3/2015 6/2015 Phase 2: Specification/ Phase 1: Conceptualisation Networking (800 stakeholders) (400 stakeholders) Climate Protection 6 working groups Draft Climate Action Plan Regional Workshops Interim results Plan submitted to Impact analysis Start of scenarios Online parliament consul- ta4on Networking Events (1500 Steering replies) Committee Adaptation to Climate Change • Public • Municipalities • Enterprises Kick-off Event Workshops 4
Study for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster: Stepwise approach to scenario definition • Global GHG mitigation effort level I 4° I 2° I Global • EU GHG emission reduction target & policy I BAU I -80 % I -90 to -95 % I EU • Economic strategy of the port’s industrial cluster I BAU I Technological Progress I Bio & CCS I Closed Carbon Cycle I Port economy Development of scenarios and discussion of scenarios with stakeholders 5
Further research as well as intelligent policy mix needed to enable industrial sector decarbonization Ø Support for the build-up of new infrastructure (e.g. for hydrogen, power- to-x and – if necessary – CO 2 ) Ø Strengthening the cooperation between industry and science for advancing the knowledge about ambitious transformation pathways Ø Intensifying the debate and the exchange with civil society to help obtain the required support for investments and infrastructure build-up 6
At the WI we focus on the basic materials processing industries due to their high shares in overall GHG emissions Five basic materials are responsible for 20 % of global GHG emissions steel 25% Global other industrial 44% sector carbon emissions: ≈ 10 Gt CO 2 /a cement 19% paper 4% plastics aluminium 5% 3% Source: Own figure based on ETP 2017 (IEA 2017) 7
Sascha Samadi | sascha.samadi@wupperinst.org Thank you for your attention More information about our work on industry decarbonization can be found at: https://wupperinst.org/en/topics/economy/energyintensive-industry/ and https://www.researchgate.net/project/Low-Carbon-Basic-Industry
Back-up slides
Examples of long-term mitigation roadmaps prepared in recent years for two industrial regions in Europe Port of Rotterdam (2017): NRW (2012/2013): Broad actor Ambition to become European engagement for climate protection Front Runner Region with focus on processing industries
Some of the roughly 400 stakeholders involved...
Lessons learned from the participatory process Positive • Highly productive discussion culture achieved in working groups • Stakeholders gained awareness for different perspectives • Confidence built between stakeholders and ministries • Policymakers learnt about the different positions of stakeholders • Probably higher chances for successful implementation of mitigation measures • Starting point for further dialogue with stakeholders Negative • Process is time-consuming and requires plenty of resources and expertise • Stakeholders generally opposed to climate protection may be uncooperative
Lessons learned from the participatory process (II) Preconditions for a successful participatory process • Government needs to provide a clear framework for the process • Enough time is needed for thorough discussions • Scientific expertise important before, during and after the process
Petrochemical cluster NRW/Flanders/NL • There are five Rotterdam petrochemical clusters Gelsenkirchen/ Ruhr within the region of Rotterdam/Flanders/ NRW • The clusters are self- Antwerp sufficient in regard to olefins but can interchange ethylene Cologne (and propylene to Geleen some extent)
Idea of co-creation of long-term climate policy Recommendations recommen- studies plan dations State (Participatory process Science Government with key stakeholders) Aim: Explore an open, iterative process that empowers stakeholders, science & policy to co-create a new position But: Iterative Process Draft Climate Protection Plan Participatory process with key stakeholders plan Science State government
Steps taken in developing the scenarios for the port’s industrial cluster Decarbonisation framework for scenario development Global GHG EU emission PoR industrial Mi4ga4on Energy and CO 2 mi4ga4on reduc4on cluster technology emission scenarios efforts strategy development strategy for the Port of Scenario literature, expert judgement, results of stakeholder feedback Rotterdam industrial cluster Bottom-up modelling of sectors’ energy demands and CO 2 emissions Stakeholder feedback Questionnaires and two workshops
The challenge of decarbonisation for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster Today’s CO 2 emissions* of the port’s industrial cluster Main mitigation 40( options FCC(catalyst( CCS regenera,on( hydrogen( electrolysis, CCS/CCU 30( produc,on( Mt/a electric ovens, synfuel high(temp.(heat( fired ovens steam(cracking( 20( CCS or electric ovens other(steam(gen.( CHP( electric boilers, geothermal heat 10( electricity( renewable electricity genera,on( (partly from outside the port area), CCS 0( * modelled values, 2016 Source: WI (2016) Additional key strategy in all areas: • energy efficiency
Pathways and opportunities for the Port of Rotterdam industrial cluster 18
Comparison of cumulative CO 2 emissions of the port’s industrial cluster in the four scenarios
What does deep electrification mean for the port’s electricity balance? 60" net"import" net"export" 50" wind"and"PV" 40" other"thermal"electricity" TWh/a& generaFon" 30" CHP"electricity"generaFon" 20" electricity"demand"of"P2H" electricity"demand"of" 10" water"electrolysis" final"energy"demand" 0" BAU"demand" BAU"supply" TP"demand" TP"supply" BIO"demand" BIO"supply" CYC"supply" BAU"demand" BAU"supply" TP"demand" TP"supply" BIO"demand" BIO"supply" CYC"supply" CYC"demand" CYC"demand" 2015" 2030" 2050"
Where could net electricity imports come from? Electricity generation in the Netherlands and the port area in different scenarios 200" Coal"with"CCS" Coal"(including"oil"and"others)" 180" Gas"with"CCS" 160" Gas" Electricity)genera-on)/)demand)in)TWh) Nuclear" 140" Other"renewables" Biomass" 120" PV" Wind" 100" Wind"offshore" Wind"onshore" 80" 60" Electricity"demand" 40" 20" 0" Trends"to"2050" Energy" Energy" BaU" TP" BIO" CYC" [R]evolu:on";" [R]evolu:on";" Reference" Policy" 2014";"NL" 2015";"PoR" 2050";"NL" 2050";"PoR" 2015 – Port 2050 – Port
Identified potential for new economic activity at the port in a decarbonising world
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