Welc lcome to th the CERES & Clim limeFish Poli licy Sessio ion wit ith EC & REA Online conference Thursday 11 th of June at 10.00 CEST Advice for the meeting: • Please, mute your microphone • Turn off your video after you presented yourself • Use the chat function for questions and comments (and don’t raise hand)
Welc lcome to th the CERES & Clim limeFish Poli licy Sessio ion wit ith EC & REA Agenda: • 10.00-10.05 Sign-in, switch off your camera and mute your microphone after you say hello • 10.05-10.20 Welcome and goals for the meeting (Zampoukas, DG RTD) • 10.20-10.40 Marine aquaculture (Aschan, Papandroulakis, Peck) • 10.40-11.00 Freshwater (Peck, Aschan) • 11.00-11.10 Stretch your legs and fetch a coffee • 11.10-11.30 Marine fisheries (Aschan, Peck) • 11:30-11:40 General conclusions and advice (Peck, Aschan) • 11.40-11.50 Arctic impact on weather and climate, Blue-Action, (Payne, DTU) • 11.50-12.00 Closing remarks (Zampoukas, DG RTD)
Poli licy Se Sess ssio ion: BG BG-02 02-2015 - Forecastin ing an and an antic icip ipatin ing effects ts of f cli limate chan ange on fish isherie ies & aquacult lture Co-creating a decision support framework Climate change and European to ensure sustainable fish production in aquatic RESources Europe under climate change March 2016 April 2016 26 partners 21 partners 678193 677039 Prof. Myron A. Peck Prof. Michaela Aschan University of Hamburg UiT The Arctic University of Norway European Commission – Online 11 th June 2020
Two IPCC Scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) RCP8.5 worst RCP4.5 likely Paris Agreement RCP2.6 not likely Representative Concentration Pathway: Carbon Emissions
CERES Storylines (ceresproject.eu) Norwegian Seas Physics / biogeochemistry Ecology Economics Sociology
CERES Storylines (ceresproject.eu) Norwegian Seas
ClimeFish Case Studies in 3 sectors European level C16AF C4F Fisheries C11 C11A C1F Bottom up Bottom up Bottom up Bottom up C7F C7F C2F Aquaculture C5F C5F C14 C14 Bo C3F A A Lakes and ponds C9F C9F C10 C10 C8F C8F A A C6F C6F C13 C13 Case study level A A C15 C15 C12 C12 A This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s A ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant A A agreement no. 677039
Seafood Sectors and ClimeFish Case Studies Fisheries Lakes and Ponds Aquaculture Hungarian Pond Northeast Atlantic Northeast Atlantic: Production Marine Aquaculture Pelagic Fisheries Greece: Marine West of Scotland: Lake Garda Fisheries Aquaculture Demersal fisheries Shellfish production in Galicia This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Cli limeFish Decis ision Support Framework develo loped wit ith stakeholders Risk Risk assessment assessment Final conference in Rome Forecast Forecast CAP DSF v3 CAP for end user Case DSF v1 DSF v2 definition 2 nd 1st Kick-off - stakehold stakehold - er event er event Feb. 2018 Spring 2019 Spring 2018 Sept. 2016 This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Cli limeFish Decis ision Support Framework develo loped wit ith stakeholders Risk Risk assessment assessment Final conference in Rome 2020 Forecast Forecast CAP DSF v3 CAP for end user Case DSF v1 DSF v2 definition 2 nd 1st Kick-off - stakehold stakehold - er event er event Feb. 2020 Spring 2019 Spring 2018 Sept. 2016 This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
What was in included in in Cli limeFish models? C1F C2F C3F C5F C6F C7F C8F C9F C10A C11A C12A C13A C14A C15A Sea� level� rise Modelled wind� (including� storms) Considered temperature Knowledge� gap heat� waves Not� applicable climate-related salinity dissoved� oxygen stressors/drivers nutrients� (eutrophication) pH food� availability invasions� /� HABs diseases� /� treatment fishing� mortality managerial feeding seeding/stocking� time seeding/stocking� den.� /size This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Aquaculture This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Greek marine aquaculture is is a growing sector • Stands for more than 63% of national fish production • 63 companies run 318 finfish farms • European sea bass and gilthead seabream important Cli limeFis ish stu tudied CC effects • European sea bass and meagre (emerging)
Effects at the in indiv ividual le level RCP8.5 E. seabass, 800 g Change in days to reach harvest size From 0 to + 7 % • 2030: no – negative effect From 0 to - 9% • 2050: positive effect Effect of husbandry on growth is higher than that of temperature and wind velocity This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Effects at the in indiv ividual le level RCP8.5 E. seabass, 800 g Change in days to reach harvest size From 0 to + 7 % • 2030: no – negative effect From 0 to - 9% • 2050: positive effect Effect of husbandry on growth is higher than that of temperature and wind velocity Effect at the farm le level extreme event Biomass (kg) Extreme events • higher mortality rates • negative effect on biomass production This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Shared Impacts of CC across Aquaculture CS Hungarian Ponds, North Atlantic Salmon, Mediterranean Seabass, Iberian Upwelling Shelfish Growth/size Escapees, Suboptimal Suitability of Changes in variabilty and predation conditions sites productivity mortality and HABs Growth rates and Increased Escapees Increased fouling Change site Changes in yields / Detachment productivity production capacity Increased size Increased predation Anoxic conditions variability Conflicts of space Changes in feed and farm allocation conversion rates Changes to growing HABs and jellyfish Accessibility and season blooms human safety issues Increased Harvesting closures Occurrence of Infrastructure production costs Increased mortality pathogens deterioration This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
A Decis ision Support Software This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Risk assessment Adaptation measures Stakeholders have a say! 2 stakeholder meetings: Athens, April 2018, June 2019 In total 24 adaptation measures/ actions identified on 4 levels • Technical/ Industry • Research and knowledge building • Policy and Regulation • Funding
Towards a national Climate Adaptation Plan • Industry o increase collaboration between farms in a wider organizational level (zones of development) • Research community o understand the biological mechanisms implicated in response to various climate change drivers • Administration o establish a flexible legal framework for the operation of the farms and designation of new sites o support research and innovation
ClimeFish in the Galician Climate Change Strategy This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Im Implementation of f advice on EU level: ClimeFish provided recommendations for the new “Strategic guidelines for sustainable development of EU aquaculture” at Aquaculture Technical Seminar with the MS in Brussels 10 th of October 2020. • This event was organized by DG Mare • Advice on how to include climate change adaptation into the Multi Annual Plans for Aquaculture in Member States and how the new knowledge can be utilized This project has received funding from the European Union ´ s ClimeFish Horizon 2020 research and innovation action under grant agreement no. 677039
Top-value species to European Aquaculture Examined Salmon Trout Salmo salar Oncorhynchus mykiss Carp Sea bass Cyprinus carpio Dicentrarchus labrax Sea bream Blue mussel Sparus aurata Mytilus edulis Cupped oyster Mediterranean mussel Crassostrea gigas Mytilus galloprovincialis European clam Ruditapes decussatus https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/cfp/aquaculture/species_en
Year 2100 Impacts of Climate Change on Growth Performance of Aquaculture Species • Physiological-based cultivation model calibrated against specific farms (same model for all species / countries). • Climate change ‘ winners ‘ and ‘ losers ‘ depending on location and species. • Some shellfish farms do particularly poorly due to warming and reduced primary production projected for 2100 (much less change by 2050). • Only direct and no indirect effects included here. CERES Synthesis Report: Chapter 5
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