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The Real Implications: The Real Implications: Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Spatial and Temporal Regulatory Fidelity Water Resources Water Resources Water Resources Water Resources Geospatial World Forum 2014 Geospatial World Forum 2014 Geospatial World Forum 2014 Geospatial World Forum 2014 May 5 May 5-9, Geneva, Switzerland 9, Geneva, Switzerland Robert Shibatani Robert Shibatani Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist Managing Partner & Principal Hydrologist The SHIBATANI GROUP International The SHIBATANI GROUP International

Three Pinnacles of Climate Change Adaptation Climate Change Science Infrastructure Overarching Water Regulatory Framework Overarching Water Regulatory Framework

Flood Control Environmental Flows Hydropower Water Supply Storing Water in Reservoirs Moving Water from Point A to Point B

Spatial Variability in Precipitation

Temporal Variability in Precipitation Sacramento River System Rainy Season Rainy Season Runoff Season Runoff Season Runoff Season Runoff Season Two Tw o-three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack Tw o Tw o-three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack three m onth lag tim e is a function of snow pack storage storage

California Water Balance Negative Storage Negative Storage

Reservoir Controlled Terminal Reservoirs

Central Valley Operations Center Joint Operations Center Basin SWE & Storm tracks Basin SWE & Storm tracks Forecasted Inflow Downstream release requirements Downstream release requirements Delta water quality Exports Exports

Major Canal and Aqueduct Systems Federal - Tracy State - Banks Delta Mendota Hetch Hetchy LA Aqueduct CA Aqueduct Colorado River Aqueduct All American

Why is it Important to Water Managers? Managers? Progression of an Earlier and Altered Seasonal Progression of an Earlier and Altered Seasonal Runoff Response Late Spring/Summer Late-Fall/Mid Winter Seasonal Shift – Compared Against Existing Seasonal Shift – Compared Against Existing Regulatory Allowances

Snow Snow Coverage Coverage Changes Changes Present Day Future - 2 C Temp. Rise Snow losses losses Seasonal Melt Flux Seasonal Melt Flux Source: J. Shafer - Kramer, DWR Bay - Delta Office Source: J. Shafer - Kramer, DWR Bay - Delta Office

California’s Watersheds California’s Watersheds Comparison of monthly reservoir inflows (thousand acre-feet per month) for the historical (blue/dashed) and future per month) for the historical (blue/dashed) and future (red/solid) climate From: Georgakakos, A.P. et al., 2012, “Value of Adaptive Water Resources Management in Northern California under Climatic Va ria bility and Change: Reservoir Management”, JOUR. HYDROLOGY, Vols. 412 - 413, pp. 34 - 46.

California’s Future Climatic Variability Scenario B1 Scenario A2 Mean Annual Precipitation mm/yr mm/yr April 1 st SWE April 1 st SWE mm Hydrograph Half H 50 H 50 From: Costa - Cabral, M. et al., 2013 “Snowpack and Runoff Response to Climate Change in Owens Valley and Mono Lake Watersheds”, CLIMATE CHANGE, Vol.116, pp.97 - 109.

Most Water Agencies in California Acknowledge this Shift Acknowledge this Shift

But is it really But is it really happening? happening? DWR, Division of Flood Management, 2009 Spring - melt (April - July) has decreased by about 10% over last 100 - years

Annual Hydrograph Annual Hydrograph Shift –More Shift –More Closely Closely Upper American River Basin Upper American River Basin Big Creek Basin Big Creek Basin 400 400 Historic 1975-2009 Historic 1975-2009 350 350 Early 21st Century 2010-2039 Early 21st Century 2010-2039 /s) /s) Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 thly Runoff (m / thly Runoff (m / 300 300 Late 21st Century 2070-2099 Late 21st Century 2070-2099 Flattens 250 250 Today 200 200 200 200 Average Monthl verage M onthl Tomorrow 150 150 100 100 Shifts Shifts Av Av 50 50 0 0 O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S Source: From Vicuna, S. et al., 2008, "Climate Change Impacts on High Elevation Hydropower Generation in California's Sierra Nevada: A Case Study in the Upper American River, Climate Change, 87, 1):S123 - S137.

W hat are the Im plications? Water Supply Water Supply Water rights Contract allocations allocations Environmental Flows

W W ater Rights/Contract Allocations ater Rights/Contract Allocations

Perm itted Diversion Periods December 1 st to st June 1 140 Historic 1975-2009 November 1 st to May 1 st Early 21st Century 2010-2039 120 January 1 st to June 1 st 3 /s) January 1 to June 1 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 3 m ly R u n o ff (m December 1 st to April 30 th Late 21st Century 2070-2099 100 July 1 st to September 30 th th to st 80 November 30 Novem ber 30 to April 1 April 1 rag e M o n th ly April 1 st to th Novem ber 30 60 40 40 A v era Note : Actual Permit/License 20 Diversion Periods 1916 - 1960; including cities, conservation including cities, conservation 0 0 districts, and private water co. O N D J F M A M J J A S

Federal W Federal W ater Contract Allocations ater Contract Allocations Example: Upper American River Basin 140 140 CVP – begin in fall Historic 1975-2009 February 1 st – Forecasts initiated Early 21st Century 2010-2039 120 3 /s) Mid 21st Century 2040-2069 Precipitation to date Precipitation to date 50% Runoff Passed 50% Runoff Passed (m h ly R u n o ff (m Late 21st Century 2070-2099 100 SWE accumulation Runoff to date 80 Final Allocation Incoming storm tracks Incoming storm tracks erag e M o n th l February 15 th – First 60 announcement 40 Updated monthly Updated monthly A v er Final allocations – April, May or 20 June 0 0 O O N N D D J J F F M M A A M M J J J J A A S S

Upstream Reservoir Spills –Downstream Flood Flood Control Control Upper American River Basin Big Creek Basin Peak Reservoir Spills Peak Reservoir Spills Today Tomorrow February 15th February 15th Source: From Vicuna, S. et al., 2008, "Climate Change Impacts on High Elevation Hydropower Generation in California's Sierra Nevada: A Case Study in the Upper Am erican River, Clim ate Change, 87, 1):S123- S137.

Environm ental Flows & W W ater Quality ater Quality –Bay –Bay Delta Delta V ariability in T otal Delta Inflow - 2011 and 2008 2011 - WET 2008 - DRY

Environm ental Flows & W ater Quality – Bay Bay Delta Delta Example D -1641 Flow/W Example D -1641 Flow/W ater Quality Standards ater Quality Standards Export/Inflow Ratio 35% 35% 65% 65% Vernalis Base Flows San Joaquin Salinity Computed from U.S. Bureau of Reclamation CVOC – Water Accounting Reports – Delta Outflow Computation. Sum of Sacramento River at Freeport, SRWWTP Discharge, Yolo and Misc. Inflow, Eastside Streams, and San Joaquin River flows at Vernalis. Plotted as monthly daily average.

Shifted Shifted Delta Delta Inflow Inflow Hydrograph Hydrograph T otal Delta Inflow for 2011 and Hypothetical Future Export/Inflow Ratios Future WET Year

Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications Real Implications R R R R R R R R R eal E eal E eal E eal E eal E eal E eal E eal E eal E ffects ffects ffects ffects ffects ffects ffects ffects ffects will be as will be as will be as will be as will be as will be as will be as will be as will be as much a res much a res much a res much a res much a res much a res much a res much a res much a res ult of R ult of R ult of R ult of R ult of R ult of R ult of R ult of R ult of R egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C egulatory C ons ons ons ons ons ons ons ons ons traints traints traints traints traints traints traints traints traints as as as as as as as as as the C the C the C the C the C the C the C the C the C limate Its limate Its limate Its limate Its limate Its limate Its limate Its limate Its limate Its elf elf elf elf elf elf elf elf elf Concluding Concluding Observations Observations Hydrologic regime has, is, and will continue to shift Hydrologic regime has, is, and will continue to shift That shift – “growing gap” – with Regulatory/Operational governance Potential effect due to existing Regulatory/Operational governance is REAL! Need to adapt and redefine – both! In the interim – increasing struggle to meet regulatory In the interim – increasing struggle to meet regulatory Real Implications Real Implications standards established using old out-of-date Real Effects will be as much a result of Regulatory thresholds/assumptions Constraints as the Changing Climate Itself