Using Data to Improve the Quality of Opportunity GLR Week, July - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Using Data to Improve the Quality of Opportunity GLR Week, July 2018

OPENING THE POLICY WINDOW PROBLEM A problem is identified and recognized as important SOLUTION POLICY WINDOW Policy options are feasible and can be OPENS implemented at a reasonable cost POLITICAL WAYS AND MEANS An engaged political actor puts the policy up for a vote 2 Adapted from Kingdon, J. W. (2010). Agendas, alternatives and public policies

Story 1: Guiding Education Reform

THE ACTORS Philanthropy and Government business • Oregon Department of • Oregon Business Council Education • The Chalkboard Project • Meyer Memorial Trust • The Gates Foundation Technical teams • ECONorthwest • Education Northwest • Portland State University

FINDINGS ON THE SMALL SCHOOLS INITIATIVE 10 th Grade Math, Meet/Exceed Rates, Economically Disadvantaged Students 50% 45% Wave 2 40% Wave 3 35% Non-Initiative 30% 25% Wave 1 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data

STATEWIDE BALLOT MEASURE ON HIGH SCHOOL SUCCESS On-time Graduation Rates for Economically Oregon Measure 98 – High School Disadvantaged Students who Applied for Graduation and College and Career Admissions, through Lottery, at Benson High Readiness Act School in Portland, Oregon 75% 70% Yes 66% 65% 60% No 34% 55% 50% Lottery losers Lottery winners Source: ECONorthwest analysis of ODE data Source: New York Times 6

CHRONIC ABSENTEE RATES BY GRADE, OREGON, 2012 % of Students Chronically Absent Source: ECONorthwest analysis of Oregon Department of Education data

COMPLEX POST HIGH SCHOOL PATHWAYS

Story 2: Paying for Performance

THE ACTORS Philanthropy and Government business • Governor John Kitzhaber • Oregon Community Foundation • Congressman Earl Blumenauer • The Meyer Memorial Trust • Oregon Legislature • Federal Reserve Bank of San Oregon Health Authority • Francisco • Oregon Department of Human Services Technical team • OHSU+ECONorthwest

PAY FOR PERFORMANCE DATABASE

MALTREATMENT FOSTER CARE RISK ASSESSEMENT

PROBABILITY OF MALTREATMENT BY AGE TWO Source: ECONorthwest analysis of data from Oregon birth records, DHS Integrated Client Services, and DHS Child Welfare records

CHILD WELFARE COSTS PER CHILD Source: ECONorthwest analysis of DHS caseload and financial data

SKETCH SAVINGS-COST Intervention Cost (per child) 5,000 Potential Savings (per child) 100,000 Expected Effect Target Population (SNAP Participants) 17,000 Likelihood of Maltreatment 6% 935 Percent Prevented 25% 234 Total Cost 85,000,000 Total Savings 23,375,000 Savings-Cost Ratio 0.28

Story 3: Improving the Quality of Opportunity

THE ACTORS Philanthropy and Government business • Governor Kate Brown • Oregon Community Foundation • Health Authority • The Ford Family Foundation • Department of Human Services • Providence Healthcare System Department of Corrections • • Kaiser Healthcare System • Youth Authority Oregon Business Council • • Department of Education Technical team • OHSU+ECONorthwest

THE INVESTMENT IMPERATIVE The achievement gap starts before age 5. Source: White House Council of Economic Advisors (December 2014) The Economics of Early Childhood Investments . Figure 3, page 13.

WHAT MATTERS: THE KNOWN KNOWNS • Parenting • Early education • Family income • Place

THE QUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY “The most effective strategy is going to be a multi-pronged, integrated approach that brings together health policy, housing policy, early childhood policy, income support, and safety net policy with preschool and K12 education policies. Only a coordinated effort on those fronts is going to substantially improve the quality of opportunity in America.” –Stanford University’s Sean Reardon Portland Address, May 18, 2017

A STRATEGY OF TRIAL AND ERROR “This is fortunately an exciting area of rapid research, as both scholars and practitioners seek more imaginative solutions. We should look for cost-effectiveness, but given the scope of the opportunity gap, narrowing it will cost money. We must pursue a strategy of trial and error, learning from practical experience what works where.” –Harvard University’s Robert Putnam Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis

A FEW KNOWN UNKNOWNS • Which children and families are exposed to human service, health, and education interventions during their early years? At what ages? In what dosage? In which combinations? How does delivery differ across geography? • How are these interventions—and packages of interventions —related to educational and other life outcomes? What are the roles of mix and sequencing? • Are evidence-based interventions replicating their documented success? • What, for whom, and where are the most effective investments for limited dollars?

Keys to Success

TEN KEYS TO SUCCESS 1. Evidence-based public policy culture 2. Clarity and agreement on the purpose and value of data integration 3. Results-oriented philanthropists and business leaders 4. Visionary executives—governors, agency leadership, or both 5. Capable, cooperative, responsive managers in state government

TEN KEYS TO SUCCESS 6. Engaged low-income communities and direct service providers 7. Cross-disciplinary, third-party technical experts who can navigate the policy, technology, and privacy domains 8. Storage, access, and analytic procedures that ensure data security and rights to privacy 9. Robust data governance processes that oversee ongoing management and use 10.Trust across stakeholders

John Tapogna tapogna@econw.com