US Baseline Briefing Book Projections for agricultural and biofuel - PDF document

March 2010 US Baseline Briefing Book Projections for agricultural and biofuel markets FAPRI-MU Report #01-10 Providing objective analysis for over 25 years

Published by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri – Columbia, 101 Park DeVille Suite E; Columbia, MO 65203 in March 2010. FAPRI is part of the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. http://www.fapri.missouri.edu Material in this publication is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service; US Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 2009-34149-19825. Contact authors for FAPRI-MU Report #01-10 are Pat Westhoff (WesthoffP@missouri.edu) and Scott Brown (BrownSc@missouri.edu). Any opinion, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the US Department of Agriculture. Permission is granted to reproduce this information with appropriate attribution to the author(s) and the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. The University of Missouri – Columbia does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability or status as a qualified protected veteran. For more information, call Human Resource Services at 573-882-4256 or the US Department of Education, Office of Civil Rights.

March 2010 US Baseline Briefing Book Projections for agricultural and biofuel markets FAPRI ‐ MU Report #01 ‐ 10

Table of contents F Foreword ........................................................................................................................................1 d 1 Summary ........................................................................................................................................2 Policy assumptions .......................................................................................................................6 Macroeconomic assumptions and farm prices paid ................................................................8 Corn ...............................................................................................................................................10 Corn processing p g ...........................................................................................................................12 Corn products ..............................................................................................................................14 Sorghum and barley ...................................................................................................................16 Oats and hay ................................................................................................................................18 Wheat ............................................................................................................................................20 Rice ................................................................................................................................................22 Soybeans Soybeans .......................................................................................................................................24 24 Soybean products ........................................................................................................................26 Peanuts .........................................................................................................................................28 Other oilseeds ..............................................................................................................................30 Upland cotton ..............................................................................................................................32 Sugar .............................................................................................................................................34 Land use .......................................................................................................................................36 Ethanol ..........................................................................................................................................38 Biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol ................................................................................................40 Beef ................................................................................................................................................42 Pork ...............................................................................................................................................44 Poultry ..........................................................................................................................................46 y Dairy prices ..................................................................................................................................48 Milk production ..........................................................................................................................50 Dairy products .............................................................................................................................52 Food prices and expenditures ...................................................................................................54 Government costs .......................................................................................................................56 Payments and crop insurance Payments and crop insurance ...................................................................................................58 58 Farm receipts and expenses .......................................................................................................60 Farm income ................................................................................................................................62 Effects of not extending biofuel credits and tariffs ................................................................64 Ranges from the 500 alternative futures ..................................................................................66