Urban Hazards Forum, NYC Mitigation: Engineering and Infrastructure 14:00-15:30PM, Jan 23, 2002 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Needs and Opportunities for the Greater New York Metropolitan Area, with Examples for Coastal Storm Surge- ( http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu ) and Earthquake-Hazards (http://www.nycem.org). Klaus Jacob Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades NY jacob@ldeo.columbia.edu
Quantifying Risk : Risk (expected Loss) is the Product of 3 Factors integrated over a given region: Risk = Sum Sum (Hazard Hazard x Asset Asset x Risk Fragility | Hazard | Hazard ) Fragility NYCEM / LDEO
Assets: Landuse Map for MEC; 20 Million People; $2 Trillion Total Built Assets, $1 Trillion Infrastructure; $ 1 Trillion Annual Economy (GRP) Barren Land NYCEM / LDEO
Storm Hazards: Winds, Precipitation (River Flooding), Surges (Coastal Flooding and Wave Action). Image: Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 1999 NYCEM / LDEO
NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map for “SLOSH” Model Worst-Case Storm Tracks, Color Coded By S-S Categories 1-4 NYCEM / LDEO
SLOSH Model, Category 1: Manhattan, Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel NYCEM / LDEO
Cat 2 - S. Ferry Subway Station NYCEM / LDEO
Example: PATH Station – 1992 Nor’easter NYCEM / LDEO
1992 Nor’easter : Manhattan, FDR North-bound / 80 th St. NYCEM / LDEO
La Guardia - Nov. 25, 1950 Nor’easter NYCEM / LDEO
Sea Level Rise for 2000-2100 (in cm) 100 Canadian Climate Model Canadian Climate Model Hadley Center, UK, Climate Model S E A L Projection of Current Trend E V E L 2100 Time 2000 0 cm NYCEM / LDEO
Probabilistic Surge Heights for CCGG-Model vs. Time with Critical Transportation Infrastructure Elevations Superimposed 18 500 17 16 15 TB GB 500 50 14 13 B&Q 12 BWB JFK 50 11 GCTe 5 QMT LT EWR 10 TNB PST E&F NHL RHMT 4,5&6 PNE FRBr 1&9 9 PWBr ERT 2&3 WS BBT WTC MP 8 5 VNB M,N&R HT 7 A&C LGA 6 LBBr HL FDR 5 TEB 4 CCGG Model: lines represent constant recurrence periods (from bottom 3 to top) of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years) 2 1 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 NYCEM / LDEO Time (Years)
Storm Risk Estimates for MEC: SS Category Recurrence Period (Years) Loss ($Billion) 1 15 - 50 5 2 30 - 100 10 WTC 3 150 - 500 50 3-4 300 - 1000 100 4 800 - 2500 250+ by: Yr 2100 Now � Annualized Loss $ 1 Billion/Year, 0.1% of GRP (Absorbable) � Probable Maximum Loss (PML) up to 25% + of GRP !!! NYCEM / LDEO
Conclusions for Storm Hazards and Risks � Infrastructure @ Elev Infrastructure @ Elevations of 6 to 20 ft Above ions of 6 to 20 ft Above � NGVD. Flooded Currently Every Few Decades. NGVD. Flooded Currently Every Few Decades. � Sea Level Rise of 1 Sea Level Rise of 1- -3ft by 2100 Increases Flood 3ft by 2100 Increases Flood � Frequency by Factors of 2 to 10 (Mean of 3). Frequency by Factors of 2 to 10 (Mean of 3). � Without Mitigation, PML of $10 Without Mitigation, PML of $10- -250 Billion is 250 Billion is � Expected Every Few Decades to Centuries. Expected Every Few Decades to Centuries. � Annualized Annualized Losses of 0.1% of GRP Would Be Losses of 0.1% of GRP Would Be � Absorbable by MEC’s $1Trillion Economy. Absorbable by MEC’s $1Trillion Economy. � But But: Large Losses Do Occur in : Large Losses Do Occur in SINGLE CATA SINGLE CATA- - � STROPHIC EVENTS (1 (1- -25% of GRP) with Likely 25% of GRP) with Likely STROPHIC EVENTS International Economic Ripple effects. International Economic Ripple effects. NYCEM / LDEO
NE Seismicity 1977-1999 (22 Years) Blue Circles: M=4 NYCEM / LDEO
NYCEM / LDEO
Manhattan Site Classes, Census Track - Based A Hard Rock 0.8 B Firm Rock 1.0 C Firm Soil 1.7 D Soil 2.4 E Soft Soil 3.5 Amplification at 1.0 Hz NYCEM / LDEO
GIS Tools are Used: e.g. the new NYC digital Base Map NYCEM / LDEO
+ + M=5, 6, 7 Scenario Equ. NYCEM / LDEO
Scenario Earthquakes 5.0M 6.0M 7.0M Manhattan Manhattan $ 10 B $ 0.7 B $ 43 Total Build. Loss: Total Build. Loss: B 2001$ (Thousands) Structural by census tract + Contents + 30,000 Loss of Use 120,000 240,000 Above 400,000 NYCEM / LDEO
5.0M Scenario Earthquakes 6.0M 7.0M Debris Generated: 88 k tons 27,178 k tons 5,700 k tons Contoured PGA, % g each dot 0.05 represents 10,000 tons 0.20 0.40 Above 0.70 9,000 Trucks (10t) 600,000 Trucks 3 Million Trucks Debris: Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete NYCEM / LDEO
Critical Structures & Facilities: • Major Bridge Retrofit Work & Studies: Delaware Memorial, NJ/DE Whitestone NYC Tappan Zee NY Queensboro NYC Williamsburg. NYC Manhattan, NYC George Washington NY/NJ …... Others, Smaller • Nuclear Facilities • JFK Airport International Arrival Bldng. • Federal Court House NYCEM / LDEO
Queensboro Bridge, New York NYCEM / LDEO
Risk Management: Risk Management: Reduce Risk Exposure: Risk = ? (Hazard x Assets x Fragility) • Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous Zones. • Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning, Regulations & Codes. • Evaluate Hazard at the Appropriate Probability Level. • Tails of Probability Distributions -> Extreme Catastrophes. • Reduce Fragility, Increase Toughness & Redundancy, Retrofit. Emergency Response Planning & Preparedness: Minimize Post-Event Losses, Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction: �Opportunity for NYCEM / LDEO
Summary and Conclusions for NYC: • NYC has Moderate to low earthquake and storm hazards • High Population & Asset Concentrations • High Fragilities of Existing Built Assets Therefore: ---> • Low Probability - High Consequence Conditions • Substantial Risk Exposure (>> Tens of Billions of Dollars / Event) • Greatest Seismic Risk is to Extensive Unreinforced Masonry with High Risk of Collapse and Threat to Lives. • Transportation Infrastructure Systems at low Elevations are Highly Vulnerable • Emergency Preparedness Must be High while Vulnerability Can be Gradually Reduced. NYCEM / LDEO
GENERALIZED CONCLUSIONS FOR GLOBAL MEGACITIES: 1. Urbanization Increases Risk on a Global Scale. 2. Hazard is probabilistically quantifiable on a global scale with current data. Microzonation of hazard requires detailed local geotechnical data for equ., and topography for storm surges. 3. Risk/Loss Modeling is well developed but needs full inventory of built assets and their fragilities. Ok for NY, but on a global scale, population and per capita income may have to suffice initially as a proxy for full asset inventory. 4. Vulnerability is a complex quantity, strongly tied to lack of redundancy; in developing countries tied to poverty, income- inequities, and the exclusion of large sectors of civil society from the political process. Hard to quantify even just for a single hazard. While there may be common causes for vulnerability to different hazards, vulnerability has hazard- specific aspects. 5. Risk Management: Pre-Event Preparedness & Mitigation are as important as Post-Event Recovery. Remaining Risk can be Distributed via Insurance. RM Requires strong Institutions and Resources not readily available in developing countries. This is a major development issue of global scale. NYCEM / LDEO
END. Questions ? NYCEM / LDEO
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